scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1888
Author(s):  
Yanyun Xiang ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Yifei Bai ◽  
Leyuan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Glacial Ice ◽  
Kaidu River ◽  
Hydrological Droughts

The aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were defined through run theory. The hydrological drought risk in the two study basins was then comprehensively assessed using a multidimensional copula function that considered the multivariable joint probability of hydrological drought duration, severity, intensity and peak. Results indicate that: (1) the risk of hydrological drought in the two basins between 1961–2018 periodically changed. There was a slight increase in risk within the Yarkant River Basin, while there was a clear decrease in risk within the Kaidu River Basin. The magnitude of drought in the two basins was relatively low; both basins were dominated by mild to moderate hydrological droughts; (2) the drought probabilities of the Yarkant River Basin and Kaidu River Basin from 1961 to 2018 exhibited a falling-rising-falling pattern and a rising-falling trend through time, respectively. These trends were correlated with changes in precipitation and the area of glacial ice, which presumably influenced the amount and source of runoff in the two basins. Hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin was higher than in the Kaidu River Basin; and (3) the return period of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought events was 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 20 yrs, and 60 yrs in the Yarkant River Basin, respectively, and 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 23 yrs and 74 yrs in the Kaidu River Basin, respectively.

scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Regimes of the Huai River Basin, China: Probabilistic Behavior, Causes and Implications

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Yao ◽  
Wen
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Huai River Basin ◽  
Huai River ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
The Huai River Basin

: Hydrological droughts were characterized using the run-length theory and the AIC (Akaike information criterion) techniques were accepted to evaluate the modeling performance of nine probability functions. In addition, the copula functions were used to describe joint probability behaviors of drought duration and drought severity for the major tributaries of the Huai River Basin (HRB) which is located in the transitional zone between humid and semi-humid climates. The results indicated that: (1) the frequency of hydrological droughts in the upper HRB is higher than that in the central HRB, while the duration of the hydrological drought is in reverse spatial pattern. The drought frequency across the Shiguan River along the south bank of the HRB is higher than the other two tributaries; (2) generalized Pareto distribution is the appropriate distribution function with the best performance in modelling the drought duration over the HRB; while the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution can effectively describe the probabilistic properties of the drought severity. Joe copula and Tawn copula functions are the best choices and were used in this study. Given return periods of droughts of <30 years, the droughts in the upper HRB are the longest, and the shortest are in the central HRB; (3) the frequency of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is higher than tributaries of the HRB. However, concurrence probability of droughts along the mainstream of the HRB is lower than the tributaries of the HRB. The drought resistance capacity of HRB has been significantly improved, effectively reducing the impact of hydrological drought on crops after 2010.

scholarly journals Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in central Vietnam

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 547-565 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. M. Firoz ◽  
Alexandra Nauditt ◽  
Manfred Fink ◽  
Lars Ribbe
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Hydropower Development ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Central Vietnam

Abstract. Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in central Vietnam and other regions of South-east Asia, severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) River basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB River basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity, and frequency were analysed for different timescales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. We found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the Vu Gia river supplying water to the city of Da Nang and large irrigation systems especially in the dry season. We conclude that the calibrated model set-up provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

scholarly journals Quantifying human impacts on hydrological drought using a combined modelling approach in a tropical river basin in Central Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. B. M Firoz ◽  
Alexandra Nauditt ◽  
Manfred Fink ◽  
Lars Ribbe
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Hydropower Development ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Central Vietnam

Abstract. Hydrological droughts are one of the most damaging disasters in terms of economic loss in Central Vietnam and other regions of South East Asia severely affecting agricultural production and drinking water supply. Their increasing frequency and severity can be attributed to extended dry spells and increasing water abstractions for e.g. irrigation and hydropower development to meet the demand of dynamic socioeconomic development. Based on hydro-climatic data for the period from 1980 to 2013 and reservoir operation data, the impacts of recent hydropower development and other alterations of the hydrological network on downstream streamflow and drought risk were assessed for a mesoscale basin of steep topography in Central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon (VGTB) river basin. The Just Another Modelling System (JAMS)/J2000 was calibrated for the VGTB river basin to simulate reservoir inflow and the naturalized discharge time series for the downstream gauging stations. The HEC-ResSim reservoir operation model simulated reservoir outflow from eight major hydropower stations as well as the reconstructed streamflow for the main river branches Vu Gia and Thu Bon. Drought duration, severity and frequency was analysed for different time scales for the naturalized and reconstructed streamflow by applying the daily varying threshold method. Efficiency statistics for both models show good results. A strong impact of reservoir operation on downstream discharge at the daily, monthly, seasonal and annual scale was detected for four discharge stations relevant for downstream water allocation. In accordance with the reports from local stakeholders, we found a stronger hydrological drought risk for the anthropogenically impacted reconstructed streamflow. We conclude that the calibrated model setup provides a valuable tool to quantify the different origins of drought to support cross-sectorial water management and planning in a suitable way to be transferred to similar river basins.

scholarly journals Drought Risk Assessment in Central Asia Using a Probabilistic Copula Function Approach

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leyuan Zhang ◽  
Yi Wang ◽  
Yaning Chen ◽  
Yifei Bai ◽  
Qifei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Joint Probability ◽  
Copula Function ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Climate Conditions

The aim of this research is to adopt the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with three-month timescale (SPEI-3) to analyze drought risk in Central Asia. Based on SPEI-3, a drought event is defined through Run Theory. The multidimensional Copula function based on drought risk is then comprehensively assessed through the multivariable joint probability of drought duration, drought severity, and drought peak. Results indicate as follows: (1) the climate conditions were relatively stable from 1961–1974 and 1979–1995, while they varied from 1974 to 1979 and from 1995 to 2017, during which the study areas experienced recurrent drought. (2) The drought characteristics show noticeable spatial variability, and the severity of drought is larger in the west than in the east in Central Asia; the duration of drought contrasts with the severity of drought spatially. (3) The drought risk in the three-dimensional joint distribution is similar to the analysis using the two-dimensional distributions, and the study area has gone through the process from moderate to slight and then to severe drought risk from 1961 to 2017; the return period studied in this paper was calculated to be 80% probability in about two years.

Sustainable effect of coal mining on hydrological drought risk: a case study on Kuye river basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 2929-2943
Author(s):  
Ming Zhang ◽  
Jinpeng Wang ◽  
Runjuan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Coal Mining ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Risk

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Hydrological Drought Risk Under Climate Change and Human Activities: A Case Study on Kuye River Basin in China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang ◽  
Wang ◽  
Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Recurrence Period ◽  
The Impact

This study conducted quantitative diagnosis on the impact of climate change and human activities on drought risk. Taking the Kuye river basin (KRB) in China as the research area, we used variation point diagnosis, simulation of precipitation and runoff, drought risk assessment, and attribution quantification. The results show that: (1) the annual runoff sequence of KRB changed significantly after 1979, which was consistent with the introduction of large-scale coal mining; (2) under the same drought recurrence period, the drought duration and severity in the human activity stage were significantly worse than in the natural and simulation stages, indicating that human activities changed the drought risk in this area; and (3) human activities had little impact on drought severity in the short duration and low recurrence period, but had a greater impact in the long duration and high recurrence period. These results provide scientific guidance for the management, prevention, and resistance of drought; and guarantee sustainable economic and social development in the KRB.

Spatial and temporal patterns of climate variations in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang, Northwest China

2013 ◽  
Vol 311 ◽  
pp. 117-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.-H. Fu ◽  
Y.N. Chen ◽  
W.H. Li ◽  
B.F. Li ◽  
Y.H. Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Kaidu River

scholarly journals A maximum entropy copula-based frequency analysis method for assessing bivariate drought risk: a case study of the Kaidu River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Yang ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
G. H. Huang
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Joint Return ◽  
Joint Return Period ◽  
Kaidu River

Abstract In this study, a maximum entropy copula-based frequency analysis (MECFA) method is developed through integrating maximum entropy, copulas and frequency analysis into a general framework. The advantages of MECFA are that the marginal modeling requires no assumption and joint distribution preserves the dependence structure of drought variables. MECFA is applied to assessing bivariate drought frequency in the Kaidu River Basin, China. Results indicate that the Kaidu River Basin experienced 28 drought events during 1958–2011, and drought inter-arrival time is 10.8 months. The average duration is 6.2 months (severity 4.6), and the most severe drought event lasts for 35 months (severity 41.2) that occurred from June 1977 to March 1980. Results also disclose that hydrological drought index (HDI) 1 is suitable for drought frequency analysis in target year of return periods of 5 and 10, HDI 3, HDI 6 and HDI 12 are fit for the target year of return periods of 20, 50 and 100. The joint return period can be used as the upper bound of the target return period, and the joint return period that either duration or severity reaches the drought threshold can be used as the lower bound of the target return period.

scholarly journals Evolution characteristics and relationship of meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Amgad Elmahdi ◽  
Zhangkang Shu ◽  
Yinghui Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Evolution Characteristics ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

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