A maximum entropy copula-based frequency analysis method for assessing bivariate drought risk: a case study of the Kaidu River Basin

In this study, a maximum entropy copula-based frequency analysis (MECFA) method is developed through integrating maximum entropy, copulas and frequency analysis into a general framework. The advantages of MECFA are that the marginal modeling requires no assumption and joint distribution preserves the dependence structure of drought variables. MECFA is applied to assessing bivariate drought frequency in the Kaidu River Basin, China. Results indicate that the Kaidu River Basin experienced 28 drought events during 1958–2011, and drought inter-arrival time is 10.8 months. The average duration is 6.2 months (severity 4.6), and the most severe drought event lasts for 35 months (severity 41.2) that occurred from June 1977 to March 1980. Results also disclose that hydrological drought index (HDI) 1 is suitable for drought frequency analysis in target year of return periods of 5 and 10, HDI 3, HDI 6 and HDI 12 are fit for the target year of return periods of 20, 50 and 100. The joint return period can be used as the upper bound of the target return period, and the joint return period that either duration or severity reaches the drought threshold can be used as the lower bound of the target return period.

Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China

The aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were defined through run theory. The hydrological drought risk in the two study basins was then comprehensively assessed using a multidimensional copula function that considered the multivariable joint probability of hydrological drought duration, severity, intensity and peak. Results indicate that: (1) the risk of hydrological drought in the two basins between 1961–2018 periodically changed. There was a slight increase in risk within the Yarkant River Basin, while there was a clear decrease in risk within the Kaidu River Basin. The magnitude of drought in the two basins was relatively low; both basins were dominated by mild to moderate hydrological droughts; (2) the drought probabilities of the Yarkant River Basin and Kaidu River Basin from 1961 to 2018 exhibited a falling-rising-falling pattern and a rising-falling trend through time, respectively. These trends were correlated with changes in precipitation and the area of glacial ice, which presumably influenced the amount and source of runoff in the two basins. Hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin was higher than in the Kaidu River Basin; and (3) the return period of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought events was 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 20 yrs, and 60 yrs in the Yarkant River Basin, respectively, and 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 23 yrs and 74 yrs in the Kaidu River Basin, respectively.

Estimating the longevity of glaciers in the Xinjiang region of the Tian Shan through observations of glacier area change since the Little Ice Age using high-resolution imagery

Glacial retreat in response to warming climates in the arid Xinjiang region of northwestern China directly impacts downstream water resources available for local communities. We used high-resolution satellite imagery from 1969 to 2014 to delineate spatial changes in 54 active glaciers in the upper Kaidu River Basin in the Tian Shan as well as their past expanses during the Little Ice Age (LIA). We manually delineated their boundaries based on the interpretation of glacial, geomorphic and topographic features. From the total glacier surface area, we estimated glacier volume and mass. From 1969 to 2014, glacier area decreased by 10.1 ± 1.0 km2 (relative loss of 34.2 ± 3.5%) and mass by 1.025 ± 0.108 Gt (relative loss of 43 ± 4.6%). From the LIA maximum (est. 1586 CE) to 1969, relative losses were less (25.7 ± 4.3% area loss and 33.1 ± 5.7% mass loss). Our results indicate that glacier recession is accelerating over time and that the glaciers are currently losing over 1.5 times more relative area than elsewhere in the Tian Shan. Using linear and non-linear projections, we estimate that these glaciers may disappear between 2050 and 2150 CE if climatic warming continues at the same pace.

Population Genomic Analysis of Two Endemic Schizothoracins Reveals Their Genetic Differences and Underlying Selection Associated with Altitude and Temperature

Schizothoracins are a group of cyprinid fishes distributed throughout the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, which can be classified in three grades: primitive, specialised and highly specialised according to adaptation ability to plateau environments. As the only specialised schizothoracins in Xinjiang, China, Diptychus maculates and Gymnodiptychus dybowskii are ideal materials for adaptive evolution research. Based on single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) loci detected by specific-locus amplified fragment (SLAF) technology, the genome-wide genetic diversities of these two species from nine sites in Xinjiang were evaluated. D.maculates in the Muzat River (BM) and G. dybowskii in the Kaidu River (LKG) presented the lowest genetic diversity levels, whereas D. maculates in the Kumarik River (BK) and G.dybowskii in the Kashi River (LK) were just the opposite. Cluster and principal component analysis demonstrated a distant genetic affinity between D. maculates in the Tashkurgan River (BT) and other populations. Outlier SNP loci were discovered both in D. maculates and G. dybowskii. The coalescent Bayenv and latent factor mixed model (LFMM) methods showed that a total of thirteen and eighteen SNPs in D. maculates were associated with altitude and temperature gradient, respectively. No intersection was revealed in G. dybowskii. The results indicated that D. maculates was subject to much greater divergent selection pressure. A strong signal of isolation-by-distance (IBD) was detected across D. maculates (Mantel test, rs = 0.65; p = 0.05), indicating an evident geographical isolation in the Tarim River. Isolation-by-environment (IBE) analysis implied that temperature and altitude selections were more intensive in D. maculates, with greater environmental variation resulting in weak gene flow.

Possible Hydrochemical Processes Influencing Dissolved Solids in Surface Water and Groundwater of the Kaidu River Basin, Northwest China

Hydrochemical processes under intense human activities were explored on the basis of the hydrochemical characteristics of 109 surface water samples and 129 groundwater samples collected during August 2015 to September 2016, in the Kaidu River Basin. Results obtained in this study indicated that the water in the basin was neutral to slightly alkaline with low total dissolved solids. Rock weathering and evaporation controlled the natural hydrochemical mechanisms. Mountain groundwater and stream water were dominated by Ca2+-HCO3− type water, whereas the plains groundwater was dominated by mixed type water. The results of principal component analysis demonstrated that water-rock interaction and human activity explained 71.6% and 12.9% of surface water hydrochemical variations, respectively, and 75.1% and 14.2% of groundwater hydrochemical variations, respectively. Sulfate, chloride, and carbonate weathering were the major water-rock interaction processes. Livestock farming and agricultural activities were the primary human activities influencing the water hydrochemistry. In addition, cation exchange is another important process influencing the hydrochemical characteristics in the study area. This study would be helpful in forecasting of water quality in arid areas.

Exploring the Effects of Hydraulic Connectivity Scenarios on the Spatial-Temporal Salinity Changes in Bosten Lake through a Model

Lake water salinization in arid areas is a common problem and should be controlled for the better use of freshwater of lakes and for the protection of the environment around lakes. It is well known that the increasing of hydraulic connectivity improves water quality, but for a lake, understanding how hydraulic connectivity changes its water quality in terms of spatial aspects is of great significance for the protection and utilization of different regions of the lake water body. In this paper, the impacts of three connectivity scenarios on the spatial-temporal salinity changes in Bosten Lake were modeled through the three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model, Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). The constructed Bosten Lake EFDC model was calibrated for water level, temperature, and salinity with acceptable results. As for the Bosten Lake, three connectivity scenarios were selected: (1) the increasing of the discharge water amount into the lake from the Kaidu River, (2) the transferring of 1 million cubic meter freshwater to the southwestern part of the lake (the Huangshuigou region of the lake), and (3) the changing of the outflow position from the southwestern part of the lake (the Kongque river) to the southeastern of the lake (the Caohu region). Through the simulations, we found that the region of the lake mainly influenced by the three scenarios presented here were different, and of the three scenarios, scenario 3 was the best means of controlling the overall lake salinity. On the basis of the salinity distribution results gained from the simulations, decision-makers can choose the ways to mitigate the salinity of the lake according to which region they want to improve the most in terms of economic efficiency and preserve in terms of ecological balance.

Remote Sensing Retrieval of Turbidity in Alpine Rivers based on high Spatial Resolution Satellites

Turbidity, relating to underwater light attenuation, is an important optical parameter for water quality evaluation. Satellite estimation of turbidity in alpine rivers is challenging for common ocean color retrieval models due to the differences in optical properties of the water bodies. In this study, we present a simple two-band semi-analytical turbidity (2BSAT) retrieval model for estimating turbidity in five alpine rivers with varying turbidity from 1.01 to 284 NTU. The model was calibrated and validated, respectively, while using one calibration dataset that was obtained from the Three Parallel Rivers basin and two independent validation datasets that were obtained from the Kaidu River basin and the Yarlung Zangbo River basin. The results show that the model has excellent performance in deriving turbidity in alpine rivers. We verified the consistency of the simulated reflectance and satellite-based reflectance and calibrated the 2BSAT model for the specified bands of high spatial resolution satellites in order to achieve the goal of remote sensing monitoring. It is concluded that the model can be used for the quantitative monitoring of turbidity in alpine rivers using satellite images. Based on the model, we used the Sentinel-2 images from one year to identify the seasonal patterns of turbidity of five alpine rivers and the Landsat series images from 1989 to 2018 to analyze the turbidity variation trends of these rivers. The results indicate that the turbidity of these alpine rivers usually presents the highest level in summer, followed by spring and autumn, and the lowest in winter. Meanwhile, the variation trends of turbidity over the past 30 years present distinctly different characteristics in the five rivers.