Patterns of Past and Future Droughts in Permanent Lowland Rivers

The problem of droughts is acute due to climate change. The study aims to assess the temporal and spatial drought patterns in Lithuanian lowland rivers in the past and to project these phenomena according to climate scenarios and models. Drought analysis was based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). To evaluate the past patterns, the hydrometeorological data of 17 rivers were used from 1961–2020. Future drought changes were analyzed in 2021–2100 according to the selected RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) using the hydrological model HBV. There were different patterns of droughts in three hydrological regions of Lithuania (Western, Central and Southeastern). The Southeastern region was more prone to extreme summer hydrological droughts, and they had a shorter accumulation period compared to the other two regions. SPI and RDI indices showed that the number of dry months and the minimum value of the index increased, extending the accumulation period. The highest correlation was recorded between RDI-12/SPI-12 and SDI-12. The amplitude between extremely wet and dry values of river runoff will increase according to RCP8.5. The projections indicated that hydrological drought intensity in the Central region is expected to increase under both analyzed RCPs.

Hydrological Droughts in the Białowieża Primeval Forest, Poland, in the Years 1951–2020

The occurrence of hydrological drought, caused by rainfall deficiency, poses a threat to forest areas—not only due to the danger of fire, but as a result of changes in habitat conditions. It is predicted that more frequent periods of drought and high temperatures will reduce the stability of forests and increase their susceptibility to industrial pollution, pressure from insect pests, fungal pathogens, and fires. The main aim of this study was to investigate the current streamflow droughts in the catchment area of the Narewka River as an indicator of hydrological droughts in the Białowieża Primeval Forest for the period 1951–2020. The research presented in this paper shows that low flows of surface waters have appeared as an indicator of hydrological droughts almost every year since 1983. The analysis of the trend over the past 70 years shows that the aggregated annual volumes of low flows and the number of days with low flows are increasing significantly. This indicates a significant and relatively permanent change in the seasonal structure of the river runoff in the event of low summer flow.

Propagation dynamics and causes of hydrological drought in response to meteorological drought at seasonal timescales

According to the widely accepted definition of drought, meteorological and hydrological droughts originally develop from rainfall and runoff deficits, respectively. Runoff deficit is mainly derived from rainfall deficit, and the propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought is critical for agricultural water management. Nevertheless, the characteristics and dynamics of drought propagation in the spatiotemporal scale remain unresolved. To this end, the characteristics and dynamics of drought propagation in different seasons and their linkages with key forcing factors are evaluated. In this study, meteorological and hydrological droughts are characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), respectively. Propagation time is identified by the corresponding timescale of the maximum correlation coefficient between the SPI and the SRI. Then, a 20-year sliding window is adopted to explore the propagation dynamic in various seasons. Furthermore, the multiple linear regression model is established to quantitatively explore the influence of meteorological factors, underlying surface features and teleconnection factors on the propagation time variations. The Wei River Basin, a typical Loess Plateau watershed in China, is selected as a case study. Results indicate the following: (1) the propagation time from meteorological to hydrological drought is shorter in summer (2 months) and autumn (3 months), whereas it is longer in spring (8 months) and winter (13 months). Moreover, the propagation rates exhibit a decreasing trend in warm seasons, which, however, show an increasing trend in cold seasons; (2) a significant slowing propagation in autumn is mainly caused by the decreasing soil moisture and precipitation, whereas the non-significant tendency in summer is generally induced by the offset between insignificant increasing precipitation and significant decreasing soil moisture; (3) the replenishment from streamflow to groundwater in advance prompts the faster propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in spring and winter and (4) teleconnection factors have strong influences on the propagation in autumn, in which Arctic Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation mainly affect participation, arid index and soil moisture, thereby impacting drought propagation.

Inventory of Reservoirs of Key Significance for Water Management in Poland—Evaluation of Changes in Their Capacity

Dam reservoirs constitute an important element of protection against floods and hydrological droughts, and they ensure the possibility of producing electricity. Loss of reservoirs’ storage capacity has a significant impact on the management of their water resources, including flood protection and counteracting the effects of drought and the possibility of producing electricity. The paper presents changes in the capacity of 47 reservoirs in Poland that have the status of key objects of protection against floods and hydrological drought. Based on the collected, unpublished data, the changes in capacity from the beginning of the reservoirs’ existence to 31 March 2021 were calculated, which allowed us to determine the total amount of lost capacity and the pace of the processes taking place. From the beginning of operation (average operation time 48 years), the capacity has decreased by about 5%, which means that almost 200 million m3 less water is stored. Detailed analyses of the lost capacity also allowed for an illustrative presentation of forecasts for further changes in the short and long term. The results obtained represent a unique contribution to future national strategies for the management of sediment and reservoirs’ flood reserve and reduction of drought. The presentation of this problem seems to be important also in the context of climate change.

Automation of hydrological drought typology to study drought propagation in a tropical catchment

Understanding how droughts propagate through the hydrological cycle from precipitation to streamflow and groundwater is important for improving water and risk management policies. At the catchment scale, the analysis of drought propagation and classification into drought types is usually done manually, which can be time consuming and difficult to replicate. Here, we developed an automated, objective procedure for classification of different drought types with the aim to study drought propagation in the tropics. The method was applied to the Savegre catchment in Costa Rica as a proof-of-concept. We first confirmed that drought events in the catchment could be classified into the process-based typology from the literature: classical rainfall deficit drought, wet-to-dry season drought, and composite drought. The automation algorithm was able to replicate the classification obtained with the manual typology with the exception of two events, and thus it is a development towards objective and time efficient hydrological drought analysis in tropical catchments. Most of the detected hydrological droughts (80% and 76% of all river discharge and baseflow droughts, respectively) were classical rainfall deficit droughts, which suggests that climate plays a more important role in drought development than catchment characteristics in this catchment. However, the importance of catchment characteristics was revealed by the presence of severe composite drought events and by the attenuation of significant precipitation droughts.

Comparison of the Entropy- and Copula-based Precipitation-Streamflow Drought Indices for Assessing Agricultural Drought in Arid and Semi-arid Coastal Areas of Southern Iran

In arid and semi-arid regions, precipitation and seasonal streamflow are the two major sources of water for vegetation. The scarcity of these water sources has a detrimental effect on vegetation cover degradation. The purpose of this research is to study the effect of meteorological and hydrological droughts, and also their combined effects, on vegetation changes in seven coastal sub-basins in southern Iran (part of the Bandar-Sedij and Kol-Mehran catchment). To track meteorological and hydrological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were used. The copula function and the entropy approach (which is developed in this research) were used to blend individual meteorological and hydrological drought indices, yielding hybrid indices called the Copula-based Drought Index and the Entropy-based Drought Index (EnDI). The single (i.e., SPI and SDI) and hybrid drought indices (CoDI and EnDI) were compared in terms of temporal behavior, drought severity and duration characteristics, drought frequency, and a bivariate analysis of the drought severity-duration return period. The results indicated that the rank correlation (\({r}_{s}\)) between SPI and SDI ranged between 0.327 and 0.726 in the studied sub-basins. However, the two hybrid indices CoDI and EnDI had extremely high correlations (\({r}_{s}\ge 0.9\)). Despite the fact that meteorological droughts benefited both hybrid drought indices more than hydrological droughts, the contribution of meteorological droughts to EnDI was greater than that of CoDI. Over the study region, CoDI reported droughts that were both longer and more severe than those recorded by EnDI. EnDI showed stronger associations with the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) in nearly all the sub-basins, possibly because precipitation has a greater effect on EnDI than it does on CoDI. EnDI was therefore recommended as a superior index for estimating vegetation droughts throughout the research region.

Evaluating integrated water management strategies to inform hydrological drought mitigation

Managing water–human systems during water shortages or droughts is key to avoid the overexploitation of water resources and, in particular, groundwater. Groundwater is a crucial water resource during droughts as it sustains both environmental and anthropogenic water demand. Drought management is often guided by drought policies, to avoid crisis management, and actively introduced management strategies. However, the impact of drought management strategies on hydrological droughts is rarely assessed. In this study, we present a newly developed socio-hydrological model, simulating the relation between water availability and managed water use over 3 decades. Thereby, we aim to assess the impact of drought policies on both baseflow and groundwater droughts. We tested this model in an idealised virtual catchment based on climate data, water resource management practices and drought policies in England. The model includes surface water storage (reservoir), groundwater storage for a range of hydrogeological conditions and optional imported surface water or groundwater. These modelled water sources can all be used to satisfy anthropogenic and environmental water demand. We tested the following four aspects of drought management strategies: (1) increased water supply, (2) restricted water demand, (3) conjunctive water use and (4) maintained environmental flow requirements by restricting groundwater abstractions. These four strategies were evaluated in separate and combined scenarios. Results show mitigated droughts for both baseflow and groundwater droughts in scenarios applying conjunctive use, particularly in systems with small groundwater storage. In systems with large groundwater storage, maintaining environmental flows reduces hydrological droughts most. Scenarios increasing water supply or restricting water demand have an opposing effect on hydrological droughts, although these scenarios are in balance when combined at the same time. Most combined scenarios reduce the severity and occurrence of hydrological droughts, given an incremental dependency on imported water that satisfies up to a third of the total anthropogenic water demand. The necessity for importing water shows the considerable pressure on water resources, and the delicate balance of water–human systems during droughts calls for short-term and long-term sustainability targets within drought policies.

Study on the driven mechanism of hydrologic drought based on the lithology-combined structure of the Karst drainage basin in South China

Hydrologic drought, considered as a typical natural phenomenon in the background of global climate changes, is the continuation and development of meteorological and agricultural droughts, and is the ultimate and most thoroughly drought. The research area controlled by the 55 hydrological sections in South China is selected in this paper, and the intensity and frequency of hydrologic droughts are analyzed by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), and the driven mechanism of watershed lithologies to hydrologic droughts is discussed. The results show that (i) the hydrological drought of Karst drainage basins is shown the gradual aggravation from the west to east parts in South China, with the significant north–south stripe distributions at the SRI_3 and SRI_6; (ii) the occurring probability of hydrological droughts is the Limestone-type Karst Basin (II and III, 0.17) < Dolomite-type Karst Basin (I and IV, 0.22) < Non-Karst Basin (V, 0.25) in terms of combination types of basin lithologies, and (iii) the Karst Basin (I and III, 0.18) < Semi-Karst Basin (II and IV, 0.2) < Non-Karst Basin (V, 0.25) in terms of basin lithologies. Therefore, this proves that the most water-stored spaces are found in Karst Basins under the differential dissolution or erosion effects of soluble water, followed by in the Semi-Karst Basin, the least water-stored spaces in the Non-Karst Basin.

Recent hydrological droughts in Brazil and their impacts on energy security

Brazil is heavily reliant on water resources. Hydroelectric plants generate about 64% of all electricity consumed. To increase yield capacity, a 2050 expansion is also planned. 78% of water used is for agriculture (irrigation and livestock), 9% for industry, and 9.1% for urban supply. However, the country has endured the worst droughts in recorded history over the last two decades, resulting in severe socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The purpose of this study was to determine the current state of knowledge regarding hydrological drought patterns, hydrometeorological factors, and their effects on the country’s hydroelectric power plants. Droughts have occurred in most of Brazil’s regions since 2014/15, causing severe impacts in many of the basins studied. Now that most hydroelectric power plants are operating at a fraction of their total capacity, the country’s hydroelectric generation is been impacted.