scholarly journals Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation in a Humid Climate

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Afzali Gorouh ◽  
Bahram Bakhtiari ◽  
Kourosh Qaderi
Keyword(s):  
Physical Method ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Java Programming ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Water Resources Projects ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Convergence Model

Abstract. Due to the importance of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for designing and planning hydraulic structures, the aim of this study is the estimation of 24-hour PMP (PMP24) by using the statistical and physical methods in a humid climate of Qareh-Su Basin which is located in the northern part of Iran. For statistical estimate of PMP, the equations of empirical curves of Hershfield method were extracted. Then the standard and revised approaches of Hershfield method were written in JAVA programming language, as a user friendly and multi-platform application called the PMP Calculator. Convergence model was considered to calculate PMP by physical method. The depth–area–duration (DAD) curves were extracted to estimate PMP24 using physical method and then PMP24 was estimated for each storm. The results showed that for the standard and revised approaches, Km was found to be varied the range of 17–18.0 and 2.2–5.3, respectively. The maximum values of PMP24 for the first approach was obtained 447.7 mm and for second approach was 200.7 mm. Using the physical method, PMP24 was 143.1 mm. The results of this study will be helpful for planning, designing, and management of hydraulic structures and water resources projects in the study area.

scholarly journals Estimation of probable maximum precipitation for tropical catchment

2018 ◽  
Vol 162 ◽  
pp. 03012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saad Sammen ◽  
Thamer Mohamed ◽  
Abd Alhalim Ghazali ◽  
Lariyah Sideq ◽  
Azlan Abdul Aziz
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Physical Method ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Storm Duration ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is the maximum precipitation depth for specific region or station within a certain time. The main purpose of PMP estimation is calculate the Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The PMF is considered necessary for design and manage the hydraulic structures. PMP can be estimate using two methods, either using a physical method or by using statistical method. In this study, statistical approach was used to estimate the PMP for Temengor catchment in Perak state, Malaysia. Extreme value type-1 distribution (EV1) is adopted to estimate the extreme rainfall and Hershfeid method was used to estimate PMP value. Also, intensity duration curve (IDC) was derived for 1, 2 and 3 days storm duration with return period 5, 10, 50, 100, 500 years. The results showed that the values of PMP for 1000 return period are 222.361mm, 311.847mm and 348.307mm for 1, 2 and 3 days respectively.

scholarly journals Probable maximum precipitation estimation in a humid climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 3109-3119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahra Afzali-Gorouh ◽  
Bahram Bakhtiari ◽  
Kourosh Qaderi
Keyword(s):  
Standard Method ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Humid Climate ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Physical Approach ◽  
Better Than

Abstract. Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation is one of the most important components for designing hydraulic structures. The aim of this study was the estimation of 24 h PMP (PMP24) using statistical and hydro-meteorological (physical) approaches in the humid climate of the Qareh-Su basin, which is located in the northern part of Iran. Firstly, for the statistical estimate of PMP, the equations of empirical curves of the Hershfield method were extracted and the Hershfield standard and modified methods were written in Java programming language, as a user-friendly and multi-platform application called the PMP Calculator. Secondly, a hydro-meteorological approach, which is called the convergence model, was used to calculate PMP24. The results of both approaches were evaluated based on statistical criteria, such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), correlation coefficient (r), and coefficient of determination (R2). The maximum values of PMP24 for the Hershfield standard and modified methods were estimated to be 448 and 201 mm, respectively, while the PMP obtained by the physical approach was 143 mm. Comparison of PMP24 values with the maximum 24 h precipitation demonstrated that based on performance criteria including the MAE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE, r, and R2, the physical approach performed better than the statistical approach and it provided the most reliable estimates for PMP. Also, the accuracy of the Hershfield modified method was better than the standard method using modified Km values, and the standard method gives excessively large PMP for construction costs.

scholarly journals Probable Maximum Precipitation Comparison using Hershfield’s Statistical Method and Hydro-Meteorological Method for Sungai Perak Hydroelectric Scheme

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.35) ◽  
pp. 603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Razali J ◽  
Sidek L.M ◽  
Rashid M.A ◽  
Hussein A ◽  
M. Marufuzzaman
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Physical Method ◽  
Loss Of Life ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
Dam Overtopping ◽  
Downstream Area

One of the potential risks attributed to the occurrence of dam overtopping and dam wall failure due to the inadequacy of the spillway capacities is the loss of life and property damages in the downstream area. The current practices in most countries in minimizing these risks are by analyzing the extreme precipitation that leads to extreme flood. Extreme precipitation is best known as Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and this estimation is useful in determining Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in reviewing the spillway adequacy of dam structures. This paper presented PMP estimations using two approaches; physical method (Hydro-meteorological Method) and statistical approach (Hershfield’s Method) at the Sungai Perak Hydroelectric Scheme that consists of four cascading dams namely Temengor dam, Bersia dam, Kenering dam and Chenderoh dam. The highest PMP estimates from these two methods will be chosen as the rainfall input to establish PMF hydrographs. Estimations using Hydro-meteorological generalized map produces 40-50% higher estimates compared to Hersfield’s method with the PMP values of 550mm (1hours), 600mm (3hours), 800mm (6hours), 820mm (12hours), 1300mm (24hour) and 1600mm (72 hours). Accepting the Hydro-meteorological Method to determine PMF values for this hydroelectric scheme may be the best course since the estimations of the extreme precipitations using this method are the highest.

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