Flattening the Curve: Learning the lessons of world history to mitigate societal crises

The world is experiencing myriad crises, from global climate change to a major pandemic to runaway inequality, mass impoverishment, and rising sectarian violence. Such crises are not new, but have been recurrent features of past societies. Although these periods have typically led to massive loss of life, the failure of critical institutions, and even complete societal collapse, lessons can be learned from societies that managed to avoid the more devastating and destructive outcomes. Here, we present a preliminary analysis of outcomes from periods of crisis in 50 historical societies and examine closely four cases of averted crisis in world history, highlighting common features. A key observation is that the structural-demographic cycles that give rise to societal crises typically incorporate a ‘gilded age’ during which more future-minded governance could avert future crises. To accomplish more forward-thinking public policy, capable not just of ‘flattening the curve’, but of actually breaking the cycle that produces societal crises in the first place, we argue that systematic quantitative analysis of patterns in world history is a necessary first step.

Climate change in Russia – problems of public health

Climate change and the accompanying social risks have already become one of the main problems of the world community. An increase in the frequency and duration of natural disasters (floods, typhoons, mudflows, etc.) lead to significant loss of life. Heat waves have caused excess mortality among the urban population, especially among Russian megacities. WHO initiated the development of national adaptation plans, and Russia has accumulated some experience in developing a regional action plan using the example of the Arkhangelsk region. and a local plan in Moscow. The National Adaptation Plan of the Russian Federation provides for the participation of the Ministry of Health, but there is no intersectoral interaction, the best practices of other countries have not been sufficiently studied.

Research on possibilities for monitoring stability of adjacent slopes to transport routes

Development of human society also implies modernization, respectively extension a road and railway transport structures. From this perspective, in order to achieve performance in the field of traffic safety, actions are also required to monitor the slopes, tailings dumps (active or greened) adjacent to transport routes where there are uncertainties regarding their stability. Ignoring stability and landslides can lead to loss of life, as well as significant material damage. Thus, the paper mainly addresses the issue of monitoring the slopes adjacent to road and rail transport routes where there are uncertainties regarding the control of landslides, as well as possibility of alerting before this occurs. From the multitude of possible solutions to be applied in the field, an equipment was developed and realized, which was experienced in real working conditions, and the results confirm validity of assumptions and certify the operation.

Effects of Peganum harmala L. Seed Extract on Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae)

Mosquito-borne diseases result in the loss of life and economy, primarily in subtropical and tropical countries, and the emerging resistance to insecticides is increasing this threat. Botanical insecticides are promising substitutes for synthetic insecticides. This study evaluated the larvicidal and growth index of Culex pipiens of four solvent extracts of Terminalia chebula, Aloe perryi, and Peganum harmala against Cx. pipiens. None of the 12 extracts exhibited larvicidal potential against third instars except the ethyl acetate extract of P. harmala. After 24 h of exposure, the LC50 value was 314.88 ppm, and the LC90 value was 464.19 ppm. At 320 ppm, the hatchability was 25.83%, and it resulted in 100% mortality. In addition, the eggs treated with the EtOAc extract of P. Harmala exhibited a long larval period compared with the control. The larval period continued for 12 days, and the pupal period took three days in the treatment groups. The growth index data also exhibited a decrease (0.00–7.53) in the treated groups compare with 8.5 in the control. The transformation of eggs into adults decreased with increasing concentrations. This paper is the first report on the development and growth index of Cx. pipiens potential using P. harmala seeds.

Live Long and Educate

Using the lenses of Vygotskian constructivism, situated cognition, the antecedents of flow, and a pedagogy interwoven with the multiliteracy framework, the authors present a COVID-19 simulation game. The game has multiple levels, challenges, disrupters, and allows for student player groups to work together (i.e., collaborate within and across player groups) to achieve the strategic objectives of the game. The player groups have an overall goal to minimize loss of life, while other parameters need to be optimized, depending on the stakeholder group that the player group is role-playing. While the game can be digitized, it is presented in a manner that allows instructors to implement the game simulation right away in their classrooms. Assessment rubrics, decision matrix templates, and debriefing notes are provided to allow for student learners to reflect on their decisions (based on course concepts) both individually and as a player group.

Sistem Keamanan Gedung Menggunakan Kinect Xbox 360 Dengan Metode Skeletal Tracking

The incidence of fire and theft is very threatening and causes disruption to people's lifestyles, both due to natural and human factors resulting in loss of life, damage to the environment, loss of property and property, and psychological impacts. The purpose of this study is to create a building security system using Kinect Xbox 360 which can be used to detect fires and loss of valuable objects. The data transmission method uses the Internet of Things (IoT) and skeletal tracking. Skeletal detection uses Arduino Uno which is connected to a fire sensor and Kinect to detect suspicious movements connected to a PC. Kinect uses biometric authentication to automatically enter user data by recognizing objects and detecting skeletons including height, facial features and shoulder length. The ADC (Analog to Digital Converter) value of the fire sensor reading has a range between 200-300. The fire sensor detects the presence of fire through optical data analysis containing ultraviolet, infrared or visual images of fire. The data generated by Kinect by detecting the recognition of the skeleton of the main point of the human body known as the skeleton, where the reading point is authenticated by Kinect from a range of 1.5-3 meters which is declared the optimal measurement, and if a fire occurs, the pump motor will spray water randomly. to extinguish the fire that is connected to the internet via the wifi module. The data displayed is in the form of a graph on the Thingspeak cloud server service. Notification of fire and theft information using the delivery system from input to database

Bacteriophages as Solid Tumor Theragnostic Agents

Cancer, especially the solid tumor sub-set, poses considerable challenges to modern medicine owing to the unique physiological characteristics and substantial variations in each tumor’s microenvironmental niche fingerprints. Though there are many treatment methods available to treat solid tumors, still a considerable loss of life happens, due to the limitation of treatment options and the outcomes of ineffective treatments. Cancer cells evolve with chemo- or radiation-treatment strategies and later show adaptive behavior, leading to failed treatment. These challenges demand tailored and individually apt personalized treatment methods. Bacteriophages (or phages) and phage-based theragnostic vectors are gaining attention in the field of modern cancer medicine, beyond their bactericidal ability. With the invention of the latest techniques to fine-tune phages, such as in the field of genetic engineering, synthetic assembly methods, phage display, and chemical modifications, noteworthy progress in phage vector research for safe cancer application has been realized, including use in pre-clinical studies. Herein, we discuss the distinct fingerprints of solid tumor physiology and the potential for bacteriophage vectors to exploit specific tumor features for improvised tumor theragnostic applications.

The Impact of Geo-Political Socio-Economic Factors on Vaccine Dissemination Trends: A Case-Study on COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies

Background: The world in recent years has seen a pandemic of global scale. To counter the widespread loss of life and severe repercussions, researchers developed vaccinations at a fast pace to immunize the population. While the vaccines were developed and tested through extensive human trials, historically vaccines have been known to evoke mixed sentiments among the generic demographics. In the proposed study, we aim to reveal the impact of political and socio-economic factors on SARS-Cov-2 vaccination trends observed in two hundred and seventeen countries spread across the six continents.Methods: The study had hypothesized that the citizens who have lower trust in their government would be less inclined towards vaccination programs. To test this hypothesis, vaccination trends of nations under authoritarian rule were compared against democratic nations. Further, the study was proposed with relevance and impacting factor that was considered for vaccine dissemination in comparison with the literacy rate of the nations. Another impacting factor the study focused on for the vaccination dissemination trends was the health expenses of different nations.Results: The comparison of trends showed that dissemination of SARS-Cov-2 vaccines had been comparable between the two-opposing types of governance. The major impact factor behind the wide acceptance of the SARS-Cov-2 vaccine was the expenditure done by a country on healthcare. These nations used a large number of vaccines to administer to their population and the trends showed positive growth. While the nations with the lowest healthcare expenses failed to keep up with the demand and depended on vaccines donated by other countries to protect their population.Conclusions: The analysis revealed strong indicators that the nations which spend more on healthcare were the ones that had the best SARS-Cov-2 vaccination rollout. To further support decision-making in the future, countries should address the trust and sentiment of their citizens towards vaccination. For this, expenses need to be made to develop and promote vaccines and project them as positive health tools. Trial registration: Not Applicable

Prediction of Flooded Compartment Damage Locations in Ships by Using Spectrum Analysis of Ship Motions in Waves

Considering the nature of marine accidents, even a single accident can result in significant damage to the environment and property, as well as loss of life. Therefore, the initial response should be rapid and accurate, and various decision support systems have been developed to achieve this. Research on simulating progressive flooding on board immediately after an accident is being actively conducted, but this requires high levels of computing power. In this study, a methodology for converting simulated ship motion data into a ship motion database is presented. The model of a training ship from the Korea Institute of Maritime and Fisheries Technology and KRISO in-house code SMTP was used for ship motion computations. The short-time Fourier transform was used to convert time-series motion data into a spectrogram motion database. A methodology for deriving a predicted location of the damage center is presented. The candidate locations of the damage centers were obtained by comparing the root mean square error values of the ship motion database from the simulation and real-time ship motion data. Finally, a probability function was suggested to confirm the predicted location of the damage center. Using 100 randomly selected test cases, our method showed 95% accuracy.

The Role of Ulama in Countering Boko Haram Insurgency: A Pattern of the Al-Azhar ‘Ulama

The eruption of Boko Haram and its insurgency in 2009 caused the loss of life and property that is unprecedented in northern Nigeria's history since independence. Various tools and approaches have been used in analyzing a phenomenon with a view to offering solutions to it. People from various walks of life including professionals and experts have expressed their views and opinions about groups, their activities and ways to limit them. Since the group is rightly or wrongly associated and identified with Islam in its activities, experts especially the ulama analyze the group from an Islamic perspective using the Qur'an and Sunnah and the actions of the salaf as their basis for offering solutions. to group problems. With this background, this paper examines the role of Ulama in dealing with the imbroglio of Boko Haram by using the Ulama model of Al Azhar University in particular. The historical method was adopted with data mostly collected from printed materials and the internet. This paper recommends among other things that our scholars should follow some of the approaches used by Al'azhar scholars in eliminating the influence of extremist and rebel groups. .