scholarly journals New tool for the spatio-temporal variation analysis of seismic parameters

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 859-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Papadopoulos ◽  
I. Baskoutas
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
B Value ◽  
Research Tool ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Seismic Parameters ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
New Research

Abstract. In this paper a new research tool called FastBEE (Fast Estimation of Expected Big Earthquake) is proposed, for the analysis of three basic seismic parameters, (the number of earthquakes N, b-value, and the seismic energy released in the form logE2/3), in order to examine their spatio-temporal variation behavior. The developed research tool is suited to analyze earthquake catalogs and it comprise new interactive visualization techniques for the exploration of the results. The tool was tested in several seismic active areas of the Hellenic territory and a case study of its applicability is presented. It is observed that the results of the seismicity parameters analysis show a clear temporal fluctuation, with respect to their mean values. Such a behavior can be interpreted as the result of the geodynamic process acting in the region. In several cases the observed significant changes can be related to strong earthquakes, so that they can be considered as precursor indicating the preparation stage for an impending strong earthquake activity.

scholarly journals SPACE REGULARITY MANIFESTATION OF THE TEMPORAL VARIATION OF SEISMIC PARAMETERS: POSSIBILITY FOR THE STRONG SEISMIC ACTIVITY ASSESSMENT

2017 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 2125
Author(s):  
George Popandopoulos ◽  
I. Baskoutas
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
B Value ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Seismic Parameters ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Seismic Catalogue ◽  
Local Areas ◽  
Earthquake Predictions

In the present work the detailed analysis of the space-time variation, of the seismic energy released and b-value was performed, in order to study the space regularity manifestation of the temporal variation of seismic parameters, to test the reliability of the results and to compare the obtained temporal profiles in relation to the strong earthquake activity. The study was carried out in the subduction zone along the western part of the Hellenic trench arc system. The earthquakes data, witch occurs in the five adjacent local areas in the period 1980 -2007 were used. The reliability of the results is tested positively for “internal” dubiety, against independent seismic data sets from adjacent local areas, being in common the processing method, and the properties of seismic catalogue. It was found that in the majority of the cases (23 of 32) the significant temporal variation changes, considered as anomalies, can be related to the preparation process of the strong earthquakes Ms>5.7, acting as intermediate term precursors. Based on these findings the quality index of the successful intermediate term earthquake predictions reach up to 71.9%. It is observed that the temporal variation of the seismic energy released anomalies were time shifted in respect to the central areas, toward to N-NE and S-SE direction. Moreover it is found that the strong earthquakes occurrence also shows immigration, in respect to the central areas, along the concatenation of the adjacent local areas. These two observations may reveal the formation of a tectonic wave, in the broader area south of Zakynthos Island, Its velocity was estimated to be as 100 to 150 km/year

scholarly journals Qualitative precursory pattern before several strong earthquakes in Greece.

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 1061
Author(s):  
I. Baskoutas ◽  
G. Papadopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Continuous Monitoring ◽  
B Value ◽  
Earthquake Catalogue ◽  
Earthquake Parameters ◽  
Seismic Parameters ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Seismicity Pattern ◽  
Time Period

The temporal variation of the seismicity, based on the analysis of three seismic parameters i.e., number of earthquakes, b-value and energy released, were investigated before several strong earthquakes occurrence in Greece the time period 2000-2008. The seismic parameters estimates were obtained by the means of new tool, suited to analyze earthquake catalogue, and visualize their spatio-temporalvariation behaviour. The seismic data used were taken from the earthquake catalogue of the Geodynamic Institute of National Observatory of Athens, Greece. The obtained temporal variation series shows significant changes around their relative mean values, which specific phases can be related to the strong earthquakes preparation stages. This relation shows remarkable temporal regularity so that itcan be establish considered as a precursor seismicity pattern. These results suggest that identification of this behaviour, by the continuous monitoring of the temporal variation of the seismic parameters, can contribute to the assessment of the current seismic hazard and to the impending strong earthquake parameters evaluation, in a given area.

scholarly journals LONG TEMPORAL VARIATION OF SEISMIC PARAMETERS FOR SEISMIC PATTERNS IDENTIFICATION IN GREECE

2004 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 1362
Author(s):  
I. Baskoutas ◽  
G. Panopoulou ◽  
G. Papadopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Energy Parameter ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
B Value ◽  
Seismogenic Zone ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Seismic Parameters

A new approach of detailed spatio-temporal variation analysis of seismic data is proposed by means of FastBEE (Fast estimation of Big Expected Earthquake) aiming at the regional monitoring of seismic activity for premonitory seismic patterns identification. For the investigation of temporal variation, a set of seismic parameters is used, like the logarithm of the number of earthquakes logN, estimates of 6-value obtained by the maximum likelihood estimation model, time clustering of seismic activity AR(t) and of energy released EM, since they can be considered as precursory seismological indicators. Earthquake catalog data, used in this approach, were elaborated in order to construct the time series for each parameter within a time window, large enough, as to guarantee statistical meaningful result. The Hellenic trench-arc region under investigation is chosen in the basis of its seismotectonic characteristics, in relation to the spatial extent of the seismogenic zone. The tools were tested, for long temporal variation features in the Ionian Islands Sea and the North Aegean Sea regions and its successful applicability is presented. The rise of irregularity, along these temporal profiles, was formulated in specific quantitative premonitory seismic pattern. In most of the cases, FastBEE premonitory pattern found shows significant changes from the background values of each parameter. Parameter logN shows a valley form curve, which start to increase before the expected earthquake occurrence, as well as the energy parameter E273, while b-value temporal estimates are forming a mountain shape curve, before the occurrence of a big earthquake. Instead, parameter ÙR(t) present a rapid fluctuation, without any kind of premonitory character

scholarly journals The Spatio-temporal Analysis of b-value in the Banda Arc, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 873 (1) ◽  
pp. 012010
Author(s):  
Muhammad Bani Al-Rasyid ◽  
Mira Nailufar Rusman ◽  
Daniel Hamonangan ◽  
Pepen Supendi ◽  
Kartika Hajar Kirana
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
B Value ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Tectonic Structure ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Banda Arc ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract Banda arc is a complex tectonic structure manifests by high seismicity due to the collision of a continent and an intra-oceanic island arc. Using the relocated earthquakes data from ISC-EHB and BMKG catalogues from the time period of 1960 to 2018, we have conducted a spatial and temporal variation of b-value using the Guttenberg-Richter formula in the area. Our results show that the spatial distribution of low b-values located in the south of Ambon Island and southeast of Buru Island. On the other hand, the temporal variation of b-value shows a decrease in the northern part of the Banda sea probably high potential to produce large earthquakes in the future. Therefore, further mitigation is needed to minimize the impact of earthquakes in the area.

scholarly journals Recent 2005-2006 strong seismic activity in Greece under the aspect of seismicity parameters temporal variation analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 1055 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Baskoutas ◽  
G. A. Papadopoulos ◽  
V. Karakostas ◽  
E. Papadimitriou
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
B Value ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Northwestern Part ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Seismicity Parameters ◽  
Hellenic Arc ◽  
Adequate Data ◽  
Event Occurrence

Recent strong seismic excitation (2005-2006), which occurred at the northwestern part of the Hellenic arc and north ofSamos Island close to the coasts of the Asia Minor, is investigated under the aspect of temporal variation seismicity profile of activated seismic zones. Seismicity profile is constructed by the means ofther FastBEE analysis introduced recently. Seismicity parameters considered in this study are b-value, energy releasee in the form logE2/3 and the quantity logNofthe cumulative number of events, in the examined area. Due to homogeneity and completeness reasons, the earthquakes with magnitudes Mi>3.0 since 1990 from the earthquake catalogue of the Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens, is used to perform the present analysis in both areas. Temporal variation profiles for both areas show a remarkable fluctuation around their mean value and specifically above the limits of the calculated standard errors behaviour forming a temporal pattern, which can be attributed to earthquake preparation process. In this temporal pattern, b value, which is related to the seismogenic process in many previous studies all over the world shows a tendency to increase and then to decrease before the occurrence of a strong earthquake, and at the same time the quantity logE 3 shows a tendency to decrease and then to increase before the strong event occurrence Mis identification of such a clear pattern for a period of time can be attributed to the lack of adequate data.

scholarly journals Temporal variation of seismic parameters in the western part of the India-Eurasia plate collision zone

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Baskoutas ◽  
George Popandopoulos ◽  
Prasanta Chingtham
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Strong Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Target Area ◽  
Origin Time ◽  
Seismic Parameters ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
North West

We examined the temporal seismicity variation in the north-west Himalayas and the adjacent regions in relation to strong earthquake occurrences in the period 1970-2010. The aim was to promote seismic hazard assessment and to show the possibilities of strong earthquake forecasting by means of the FastBEE computer tool. The temporal variation of the seismicity is expressed in terms of three basic seismic parameters: the logarithm of the number of earthquakes logN, the seismic energy released in the mode logE2/3 and the b-value of the earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Significant changes to relative mean values, forming consecutive relative minima and maxima, of the obtained temporal variation series of the seismicity parameters can be considered anomalies. These anomalies were investigated before strong (magnitude Mw≥5.6.) earthquake occurrences and were successfully correlated with 12 strong earthquakes. The mean time of the duration of the anomalies before the origin time of the impending earthquake were estimated to be equal to 3.3±1.3 years. We conclude that, in the region under study, the established correlations can be useful for the intermediate-term forecasting of strong earthquakes and that the continuous monitoring of the temporal evolution of seismicity by means of the FastBEE tool can contribute to the evaluation of the seismic hazard status in a target area. The available earthquake data and the results obtained indicate that after the beginning of 2006, the temporal variation of the seismicity does not present clear prognostic anomalies. This behavior is compatible with the absence of earthquakes with a magnitude of Mw 6.0 or more in the area examined.

scholarly journals Study of the seismicity temporal variation for the current seismic hazard evaluation in Val d'Agri, Italy

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3169-3174 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Baskoutas ◽  
A. D'Alessandro
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
High Probability ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
B Value ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Magnitude Distribution ◽  
Seismicity Pattern ◽  
Seismic Hazard Evaluation

Abstract. This study examines the temporal variation of the seismicity in the Val d'Agri (southern Italy) and adjacent areas, for the current seismic hazard evaluation. The temporal variation of the seismicity is expressed as time series of the number of earthquakes, b value of Gutenberg–Richter relationship or b value of the frequency–magnitude distribution and the seismic energy released in the form of logE2/3. The analysis was performed by means of a new research tool that includes visualizing techniques, which helps the interactive exploration and the interpretation of temporal variation changes. The obtained time series show a precursory seismicity pattern, characterized by low and high probability periods, which preceded earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0. The 75% of the examined cases were successfully correlated with a change in seismicity pattern. The average duration of the low and the high probability periods is 10.6 and 13.8 months respectively. These results indicate that the seismicity temporal variation monitoring in a given area and the recognition of the low and high probability periods can contribute to the evaluation, in regular monthly intervals, of current seismic hazard status.

4D imaging of the seismic energy release before the 2011 El Hierro eruption (Canary Islands)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubén García-Hernández ◽  
Luca D'Auria ◽  
José Barrancos ◽  
Germán D. Padilla
Keyword(s):  
Energy Release ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
B Value ◽  
Temporal Scale ◽  
Multiscale Approach ◽  
Consistent Estimation ◽  
Heterogeneous Distribution ◽  
El Hierro ◽  
Seismic Energy Release ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>The estimation of the spatial and temporal variations of the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law is of great importance in different seismological applications. However, its estimate is strongly dependent upon the selected spatial and/or temporal scale due to the heterogeneous distribution of the seismicity. This is especially relevant in volcanic and geothermal areas where dense clusters of earthquakes often overlap to the background seismicity.</p><p>For this reason, we propose a novel multiscale approach allowing a consistent estimation of the b-value regardless of the considered spatial and/or temporal scales. Our method, named <strong>MUST-B</strong> (<strong>MU</strong>ltiscale <strong>S</strong>patial and <strong>T</strong>emporal estimation of the <strong>B</strong>-value), basically consists in computing estimates of the b-value at multiple temporal and spatial scales, extracting for a given spatio-temporal point a statistical estimator of its value, as well as an indication of the characteristic spatio-temporal scale. This approach includes also a consistent estimation of the completeness magnitude (M<sub>c</sub>) and of the uncertainties over both b and M<sub>c</sub>, as well as, estimates of the seismic energy release rates.</p><p>We applied this method to the seismic datasets of El Hierro submarine eruption, started on October 2011 and linked to a precursor seismic unrest episode that initiated on July 2011. The seismicity showed a very complex spatial distribution, which also changed over time, showing a migration from the north of the island to the south. Results show that the high resolution 4D mapping is of great importance to understand the distribution of the seismic energy release in volcanic islands, which is possibly correlated to a variable geothermal fluid flow paths and/or magmatic sources. What is also remarkable is that even in highly heterogeneous catalogues, as for the 2011 El Hierro dataset, the MUST-B method could provide reliable estimates.</p>

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