scholarly journals Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Jeffrey S. Kargel ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
John Reynolds ◽  
Dan H. Shugar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Glacier Recession ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Moraine Dam Failure

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste and many have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the collapse of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and their regularity – rather unexpectedly – has declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

scholarly journals Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1195-1209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Jeffrey S. Kargel ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
John Reynolds ◽  
Dan H. Shugar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Glacier Recession ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Lake Formation ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Moraine Dam Failure

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

What’s in a lake? Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Peruvian Andes.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Wood ◽  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Ryan Wilson ◽  
Neil Glasser ◽  
John Reynolds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Peruvian Andes ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Andes ◽  
Glacier Recession ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Lake Systems ◽  
Physical Components

<p>Climate change is resulting in mass loss and the retreat of glaciers in the Andes, exposing steep valley sides, over-deepened valley bottoms, and creating glacial lakes behind moraine dams. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) present the biggest risk posed by glacier recession in Peru. Understanding the characteristics of lakes that have failed in the past will provide an aid to identifying those lakes that might fail in the future and narrow down which lakes are of greatest interest for reducing the risks to local vulnerable populations. </p><p>Using a newly created lake inventory for the Peruvian Andes (Wood et al., in review) and a comprehensive GLOF inventory (unpublished) we investigate lakes from which GLOFs have occurred in the past. This is to establish which physical components of the glacial lake systems are common to those lakes that have failed previously and which can be identified remotely, easily and objectively, in order to improve existing methods of hazard assessment.</p>

scholarly journals New method for assessing the potential hazardousness of glacial lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 2391-2439 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Emmer ◽  
V. Vilímek
Keyword(s):  
Slope Movement ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Flood Wave ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Cordillera Blanca ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood ◽  
Dam Overtopping

Abstract. This paper presents a new and easily repeatable objective method for assessing the potential hazardousness of glacial lakes within the Peruvian region of Cordillera Blanca (excluding ice-dammed lakes, which do not reach significant volumes in this region). The presented method was designed to meet four basic principles, which we considered as being crucial. These are: (a) principle of regional focus; (b) principle of objectivity; (c) principle of repeatability; and (d) principle of multiple results. Potential hazardousness is assessed based on a combination of decision trees for clarity and numerical calculation for objectivity. A total of seventeen assessed characteristics are used, of which seven have yet to be used in this context before. Also, several ratios and calculations are defined for the first time. We assume that it is not relevant to represent the overall potential hazardousness of a particular lake by one result (number), thus the potential hazardousness is described in the presented method by five separate results (representing five different glacial lake outburst flood scenarios). These are potentials for: (a) dam overtopping resulting from a dynamic slope movement into the lake; (b) dam overtopping following the flood wave originating in a lake situated upstream; (c) dam failure resulting from a dynamic slope movement into the lake; (d) dam failure following the flood wave originating in a lake situated upstream; and (e) dam failure following a heavy earthquake. All of these potentials theoretically range from 0 to 1. The presented method was verified on the basis of assessing the pre-flood conditions of seven lakes which have produced ten glacial lake outburst floods in the past and ten lakes which have not. A comparison of these results showed that the presented method successfully identifies the potentially hazardous lakes.

Glacier Retreat and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Slope Movement ◽  
Glacier Retreat ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Slope Movements ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Peak Discharges

Glacier retreat is considered to be one of the most obvious manifestations of recent and ongoing climate change in the majority of glacierized alpine and high-latitude regions throughout the world. Glacier retreat itself is both directly and indirectly connected to the various interrelated geomorphological/hydrological processes and changes in hydrological regimes. Various types of slope movements and the formation and evolution of lakes are observed in recently deglaciated areas. These are most commonly glacial lakes (ice-dammed, bedrock-dammed, or moraine-dammed lakes). “Glacial lake outburst flood” (GLOF) is a phrase used to describe a sudden release of a significant amount of water retained in a glacial lake, irrespective of the cause. GLOFs are characterized by extreme peak discharges, often several times in excess of the maximum discharges of hydrometeorologically induced floods, with an exceptional erosion/transport potential; therefore, they can turn into flow-type movements (e.g., GLOF-induced debris flows). Some of the Late Pleistocene lake outburst floods are ranked among the largest reconstructed floods, with peak discharges of up to 107 m3/s and significant continental-scale geomorphic impacts. They are also considered capable of influencing global climate by releasing extremely high amounts of cold freshwater into the ocean. Lake outburst floods associated with recent (i.e., post-Little Ice Age) glacier retreat have become a widely studied topic from the perspective of the hazards and risks they pose to human society, and the possibility that they are driven by anthropogenic climate change. Despite apparent regional differences in triggers (causes) and subsequent mechanisms of lake outburst floods, rapid slope movement into lakes, producing displacement waves leading to dam overtopping and eventually dam failure, is documented most frequently, being directly (ice avalanche) and indirectly (slope movement in recently deglaciated areas) related to glacial activity and glacier retreat. Glacier retreat and the occurrence of GLOFs are, therefore, closely tied, because glacier retreat is connected to: (a) the formation of new, and the evolution of existing, lakes; and (b) triggers of lake outburst floods (slope movements).

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Early Warning System to save lives and livelihood of the Nepal Himalaya communities: A case Study of Imja Glacial Lake, Nepal 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak Kc ◽  
Top Khatri ◽  
Rishiram Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Glacial Lakes ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

<p>Nepal, a mountainous country, is experiencing multiple disasters, majority of which are induced by Climate Change. Erratic rainfall, extremely high temperature during summer, cold waves are some of them. Nepal will experience the impacts of climate change through an increase in temperature, more frequent heat waves and shorter frost durations in the future (5AR IPCC). Nepal is witnessing the increased maximum temperature of 0.56<sup>o</sup>C per decade and the increment of the temperature is even higher in the mountain region (ICIMOD 2019). One of the major impacts of Climate Change among others, is glacier retreat and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFS). Nepal has already experienced more than 26 GLOFS (UNDP and ICIMOD 2020), originated both from Nepal and China, Tibet.</p><p>The Imja Glacial Lake is located at 27° 53′ 55“ N latitude, 86° 55’ 20” E longitude and at an altitude of 5010 m in Everest Region of Nepal Himalayas.  Imja was identified during 1960s as a small supra lake, was later expanded to an area of <strong>1.28 Km<sup>2</sup></strong>, <strong>148.9 meter deep</strong>, holding <strong>75.2 million cubic meters </strong>of water in 2014.   Lake lowering by 3.4 metres and establishment of early warning system was done in 2016 by the Government of Nepal and UNDP with the support of Global Environment Facility.  Hydro-met stations & GLOF Sensors in the periphery and downstream  of Imja Lake and automated early warning sirens in six prime settlements in the  downstream of Imja  watershed  linking with  dynamic SMS Alert system along 50 km downstream of Imja Dudh Koshi River have been have been linked with community-based DRM institutions at local government level. This initiative is important for preparedness and response of GLOF Risk Reduction in the Imja Valley, benefitting 71,752 vulnerable people, both local and the tourists visiting the Everest Region of Nepal.</p><p>Early Warning System of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake, the biggest Glacial Lake of Nepal is another example in the such system. New inventory of Glacial Lakes has identified 47 critical lakes as priority lakes for GLOF Risk Reduction in Koshi, Gandaki and Karnali basins. In the new context of federal  governance system, the role of federal, province and local government and communities is crucial  for achieving the targets of  Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction , particularly target “g” and SDGs 11 and 13  through integrating  the targets in the regular planning and   its’ implementation for resilient and Sustainable Development of  Nepal.</p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>Glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in Nepal. Kathmandu, ICIMOD 2011,  Nepal Disaster Report, Ministry of Home affairs (MoHA) , 2015, 2018 Annual Reports UNDP 2016, 2017 and 2018,  Imja Hydro-Meteorological and Early Warning System User Manual, Government of Nepal and UNDP, 2017 Project Completion Report: Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project, Government of Nepal and UNDP, 2017,  Inventory of glacial lakes and identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali River Basins of Nepal, the Tibet Autonomous Region of China, and India. Research Report, ICIMOD and UNDP, 2020</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods as a consequence of climate change in the Himalayan region

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Somana Riaz ◽  
Arshad Ali ◽  
Muhammad N. Baig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
Fluvial Systems ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Snow Covered Area ◽  
Covered Area ◽  
Increasing Risk

The greater Himalayan Mountains host the largest snow covered area outside the polar regions and serves as the source for some of the major fluvial systems of the world. The region acts as the lifeline for approximately 10% of the world’s population. The terrain is geologically active, highly susceptible to climate change processes and plays a significant role in global hydro-meteorological cycles and biodiversity. With the increasing impacts of climate change to the glaciers and ice caps during the past few decades, people living in the Himalayas have become vulnerable to a higher risk of floods, avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods(GLOFs). This study reviewed the work carried out by earlier researchers to understand the history and science of GLOFs and their potential risk to the communities in the Himalayanbelt, particularly in Pakistan.

scholarly journals Supplementary material to "Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods"

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Jeffrey S. Kargel ◽  
Christian Huggel ◽  
John Reynolds ◽  
Dan H. Shugar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Supplementary Material

scholarly journals 160 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across the Tropical Andes since the Little Ice Age

2021 ◽  
pp. 103722
Author(s):  
Adam Emmer ◽  
Joanne L. Wood ◽  
Simon J. Cook ◽  
Stephan Harrison ◽  
Ryan Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Tropical Andes ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods

9. Glaciers, humans, and enduring ice

2018 ◽  
pp. 153-160
Author(s):  
David J. A. Evans
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Glacial Lake ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Earth Surface ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽  
Sediment Failure ◽  
Glacial Landforms ◽  
New Phase ◽  
Glacial Hazards

A knowledge of glaciation is important because it provides us with an understanding of glaciers as Earth surface systems face climate change and of the glacial materials beneath the surface. Crucial are glacier-related hazards impacting directly on human society and glacial landforms and sediments lying at the surface of some of the most densely populated parts of our planet. ‘Glaciers, humans, and enduring ice’ considers glacial hazards, such as glacial lake outburst floods, and important engineering considerations, including sediment failure and seepage. It discusses the valuable legacy of past glaciations and asks if Earth is entering a new phase of ice-free conditions, the like of which it has not endured for more than 35 million years.

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