An analysis of instabilities and limit cycles in glacier-dammed reservoirs

Glacier lake outburst floods are common glacial hazards around the world. How big such floods can become (either in terms of peak discharge or in terms of total volume released) depends on how they are initiated: what causes the runaway enlargement of a subglacial or other conduit to start the flood, and how big can the lake get before that point is reached? Here we investigate how the spontaneous channelization of a linked-cavity drainage system can control the onset of floods. In agreement with previous work, we show that floods only occur in a band of water throughput rates in which steady reservoir drainage is unstable, and we identify stabilizing mechanisms that allow steady drainage of an ice-dammed reservoir. We also show how stable limit cycle solutions emerge from the instability and identify parameter regimes in which the resulting floods cause flotation of the ice dam. These floods are likely to be initiated by flotation rather than the unstable enlargement of a distributed drainage system.

An analysis of instabilities and limit cycles in glacier-dammed reservoirs

Glacier lake outburst floods are common glacial hazards around the world. How big such floods can become (either in terms of peak discharge or in terms of total volume released) depends on how they are initiated: what causes the runaway enlargement of a subglacial or other conduit to start, and how big can the lake get before that point is reached? Here we investigate how the spontaneous channelization of a linked-cavity drainage system controls the onset of floods. In agreement with previous work, we show that floods only occur in a band of water throughput rates, and identify stabilizing mechanisms that allow steady drainage of an ice-dammed reservoir. We also show how stable limit cycle solutions emerge from the instability, a show how and why the stability properties of a drainage system with spatially spread-out water storage differ from those where storage is localized in a single reservoir or lake.

9. Glaciers, humans, and enduring ice

A knowledge of glaciation is important because it provides us with an understanding of glaciers as Earth surface systems face climate change and of the glacial materials beneath the surface. Crucial are glacier-related hazards impacting directly on human society and glacial landforms and sediments lying at the surface of some of the most densely populated parts of our planet. ‘Glaciers, humans, and enduring ice’ considers glacial hazards, such as glacial lake outburst floods, and important engineering considerations, including sediment failure and seepage. It discusses the valuable legacy of past glaciations and asks if Earth is entering a new phase of ice-free conditions, the like of which it has not endured for more than 35 million years.

An assessment procedure for glacial hazards in the Swiss Alps

Glacial hazards such as ice avalanches, glacial lake outburst floods, and debris flows have caused severe damage in populated mountain regions such as the Swiss Alps. Assessment of such hazards must consider basic glaciological, geomorphological, and hydraulic principles together with experience gained from previous events. An approach is presented here to assess the maximum event magnitude and probability of occurrence of glacial hazards. Analysis of magnitude is based on empirical relationships derived from published case histories from the Swiss Alps and other mountain regions. Probability of occurrence is difficult to estimate because of rapid changes in the nature of glacial systems, the low frequency of events, and the high complexity of the involved processes. Here, the probability is specified in qualitative and systematic terms based on indicators such as dam type, geometry, and freeboard height (for glacial lakes) and tendency of avalanche repetition, precursor events, and increased water supply to the glacier bed (for ice avalanche events). The assessment procedures are applied to a recent lake outburst with subsequent debris flow and to an ice avalanche in the Swiss Alps. The results yield reasonable event maxima that were not exceeded by actual events. The methods provide first-order assessments and may be applied in dynamic mountain environments where population and infrastructure growth require continuous evaluation of hazards.Key words: glacial hazards, lake outburst, debris flow, ice avalanche, hazard assessment procedure, probability of occurrence.