160 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across the Tropical Andes since the Little Ice Age

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste and many have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the collapse of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and their regularity – rather unexpectedly – has declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

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Widespread and accelerating glacier retreat on the Lyngen Peninsula, northern Norway, since their ‘Little Ice Age’ maximum

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/jog.2018.3 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 64 (243) ◽

pp. 100-118 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

CHRIS R. STOKES ◽

LISS M. ANDREASSEN ◽

MATTHEW R. CHAMPION ◽

GEOFFREY D. CORNER

Keyword(s):

Little Ice Age ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Ice Age ◽

Surface Hydrology ◽

Northern Norway ◽

Mountain Glaciers ◽

Air Temperatures ◽

Outburst Floods ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽

Global Sea Level

ABSTRACTThe recession of mountain glaciers worldwide is increasing global sea level and, in many regions, human activities will have to adapt to changes in surface hydrology. Thus, it is important to provide up-to-date analyses of glacier change and the factors modulating their response to climate warming. Here we report changes in the extent of >120 glaciers on the Lyngen Peninsula, northern Norway, where glacier runoff is utilised for hydropower and where glacial lake outburst floods have occurred. Glaciers covered at least 114 km2 in 1953 and we compare this inventory with those from 1988, 2001 and a new one from 2014, and previously-dated Little Ice Age (LIA) limits. Results show a steady reduction in area (~0.3% a−1) between their LIA maximum (~1915) and 1988, consistent with increasing summer air temperatures, but recession paused between 1988 and 2001, coinciding with increased winter precipitation. Air temperatures increased 0.5°C per decade from the 1990s and the rate of recession accelerated to ~1% a−1 between 2001 and 2014 when glacier area totalled ~95.7 km2. Small glaciers (<0.05 km2) with low maximum elevations (<1400 m) experienced the largest percentage losses and, if warming continues, several glaciers may disappear within the next two decades.

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Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-12-1195-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1195-1209 ◽

Cited By ~ 64

Author(s):

Stephan Harrison ◽

Jeffrey S. Kargel ◽

Christian Huggel ◽

John Reynolds ◽

Dan H. Shugar ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ice Age ◽

Dam Failure ◽

Glacial Lake ◽

Glacier Recession ◽

Outburst Floods ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽

Lake Formation ◽

Recent Climate ◽

Moraine Dam Failure

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

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Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru: Historic Events and Current Susceptibility

Water ◽

10.3390/w12102664 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (10) ◽

pp. 2664

Author(s):

Jan Baťka ◽

Vít Vilímek ◽

Eva Štefanová ◽

Simon J. Cook ◽

Adam Emmer

Keyword(s):

Ice Age ◽

Glacial Lake ◽

Dam Breach ◽

Hazard Management ◽

Lake Evolution ◽

Outburst Floods ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽

High Resolution Satellite Images ◽

Glacier Ice ◽

Dam Overtopping

The aim of this paper is to create a glacial lake inventory for the Cordillera Huayhuash in Peru and to evaluate the susceptibility of lakes to the generation of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Using high-resolution satellite images, we undertook qualitative and quantitative analysis of lake type, characteristics and distribution, and placed our findings within the context of existing Peru-wide lake inventories. We also mapped and analyzed past GLOFs, revealing a total of 10 GLOFs and 4 ambiguous events, most of which have not been reported before. We found that past GLOFs usually occurred as a result of moraine dam breach during the proglacial stage of lake evolution. Further, we used our lake inventory to evaluate GLOF susceptibility of all lakes larger than 20,000 m2. Of 46 evaluated lakes, only two lakes (Lake Tsacra and Lake W014) are currently susceptible to generating a GLOF, which would most likely be through dam overtopping resulting from a flood originating in smaller lakes located upstream. The future perspectives of lake evolution and implications for GLOF hazard management are discussed in light of the post-Little Ice Age glacier ice loss as well as in the context of extensive related research undertaken in the nearby Cordillera Blanca.

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Inventory and classification of the post Little Ice Age glacial lakes in Svalbard

10.5194/tc-2021-364 ◽

2022 ◽

Author(s):

Iwo Wieczorek ◽

Mateusz Czesław Strzelecki ◽

Łukasz Stachnik ◽

Jacob Clement Yde ◽

Jakub Małecki

Keyword(s):

Little Ice Age ◽

High Arctic ◽

Ice Age ◽

Aerial Photographs ◽

Glacial Lake ◽

High Mountain ◽

Lake Area ◽

Glacial Lakes ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Outburst Floods

Abstract. Rapid changes of glacial lakes are among the most visible indicators of global warming in glacierized areas around the world. The general trend is that the area and number of glacial lakes increase significantly in high mountain areas and polar latitudes. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the current state of glacial lakes in the High Arctic. This study aims to address this issue by providing the first glacial lake inventory from Svalbard, with focus on the genesis and evolution of glacial lakes since the end of the Little Ice Age. We use aerial photographs and topographic data from 1936 to 2012 and satellite imagery from 2013 to 2020. The inventory includes the development of 566 glacial lakes (total area of 145.91 km2) that were in direct contact with glaciers in 2008–2012. From the 1990s to the end of the 2000s, the total glacial lake area increased by nearly a factor of six. A decrease in the number of lakes between 2012 and 2020 is related to two main processes: the drainage of 197 lakes and the merger of smaller reservoirs into larger ones. The changes of glacial lakes show how climate change in the High Arctic affect proglacial geomorphology by enhanced formation of glacial lakes, leading to higher risks associated with glacier lake outburst floods in Svalbard.

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Simulation and Assessment of Future Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalayas

Water ◽

10.3390/w13101376 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (10) ◽

pp. 1376

Author(s):

Taigang Zhang ◽

Weicai Wang ◽

Tanguang Gao ◽

Baosheng An

Keyword(s):

River Basin ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Glacial Lake ◽

High Mountain ◽

Glacial Lakes ◽

Central Himalayas ◽

Outburst Floods ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ◽

Social And Economic Development ◽

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood

A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a typical glacier-related hazard in high mountain regions. In recent decades, glacial lakes in the Himalayas have expanded rapidly due to climate warming and glacial retreat. Some of these lakes are unstable, and may suddenly burst under different triggering factors, thus draining large amounts of water and impacting downstream social and economic development. Glacial lakes in the Poiqu River basin, Central Himalayas, have attracted great attention since GLOFs originating there could have a transboundary impact on both China and Nepal, as occurred during the Cirenmaco GLOF in 1981 and the Gongbatongshaco GLOF in 2016. Based on previous studies of this basin, we selected seven very high-risk moraine-dammed lakes (Gangxico, Galongco, Jialongco, Cirenmaco, Taraco, Beihu, and Cawuqudenco) to simulate GLOF propagation at different drainage percentage scenarios (i.e., 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%), and to conduct hazard assessment. The results show that, when any glacial lake is drained completely or partly, most of the floods will enter Nepal after raging in China, and will continue to cause damage. In summary, 57.5 km of roads, 754 buildings, 3.3 km2 of farmland, and 25 bridges are at risk of damage due to GLOFs. The potentially inundated area within the Chinese part of the Poiqu River basin exceeds 45 km2. Due to the destructive impacts of GLOFs on downstream areas, appropriate and effective measures should be implemented to adapt to GLOF risk. We finally present a paradigm for conducting hazard assessment and risk management. It uses only freely available data and thus is easy to apply.

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