Stabilizing effect of mélange buttressing on the Marine Ice Cliff Instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract. Due to global warming and particularly high regional ocean warming, both Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in the Amundsen region of the Antarctic Ice Sheet could lose their buttressing ice shelves over time. We analyze the possible consequences using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), applying a simple cliff-calving parameterization and an ice-mélange-buttressing model. We find that the instantaneous loss of ice-shelf buttressing, due to enforced ice-shelf melting, initiates grounding line retreat and triggers the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As a consequence, the grounding line progresses into the interior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and leads to a sea level contribution of 0.6 m within 100 a. By subjecting the exposed ice cliffs to cliff calving using our simplified parameterization, we also analyze the marine ice cliff instability (MICI). In our simulations it can double or even triple the sea level contribution depending on the only loosely constraint parameter which determines the maximum cliff-calving rate. The speed of MICI depends on this upper bound on the calving rate which is given by the ice mélange buttressing the glacier. However, stabilization of MICI may occur for geometric reasons. Since the embayment geometry changes as MICI advances into the interior of the ice sheet, the upper bound on calving rates is reduced and the progress of MICI is slowed down. Although we cannot claim that our simulations bear relevant quantitative estimates of the effect of ice-mélange buttressing on MICI, the mechanism has the potential to stop the instability. Further research is needed to evaluate its role for the past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

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Antarctic Ice-Sheet Volume at 18000 Years B.P. and Holocene Sea-Level Changes at the West Antarctic Margin

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/s0022143000014751 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 24 (90) ◽

pp. 213-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Craig S. Lingle ◽

James A. Clark

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

The Antarctic

AbstractThe Antarctic ice sheet has been reconstructed at 18000 years b.p. by Hughes and others (in press) using an ice-flow model. The volume of the portion of this reconstruction which contributed to a rise of post-glacial eustatic sea-level has been calculated and found to be (9.8±1.5) × 106 km3. This volume is equivalent to 25±4 m of eustatic sea-level rise, defined as the volume of water added to the ocean divided by ocean area. The total volume of the reconstructed Antarctic ice sheet was found to be (37±6) × 106 km3. If the results of Hughes and others are correct, Antarctica was the second largest contributor to post-glacial eustatic sea-level rise after the Laurentide ice sheet. The Farrell and Clark (1976) model for computation of the relative sea-level changes caused by changes in ice and water loading on a visco-elastic Earth has been applied to the ice-sheet reconstruction, and the results have been combined with the changes in relative sea-level caused by Northern Hemisphere deglaciation as previously calculated by Clark and others (1978). Three families of curves have been compiled, showing calculated relative sea-level change at different times near the margin of the possibly unstable West Antarctic ice sheet in the Ross Sea, Pine Island Bay, and the Weddell Sea. The curves suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet remained grounded to the edge of the continental shelf until c. 13000 years b.p., when the rate of sea-level rise due to northern ice disintegration became sufficient to dominate emergence near the margin predicted otherwise to have been caused by shrinkage of the Antarctic ice mass. In addition, the curves suggest that falling relative sea-levels played a significant role in slowing and, perhaps, reversing retreat when grounding lines approached their present positions in the Ross and Weddell Seas. A predicted fall of relative sea-level beneath the central Ross Ice Shelf of as much as 23 m during the past 2000 years is found to be compatible with recent field evidence that the ice shelf is thickening in the south-east quadrant.

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Antarctic Ice-Sheet Volume at 18000 Years B.P. and Holocene Sea-Level Changes at the West Antarctic Margin

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s0022143000014751 ◽

1979 ◽

Vol 24 (90) ◽

pp. 213-230 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Craig S. Lingle ◽

James A. Clark

Keyword(s):

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Sea Level Changes ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Relative Sea Level ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

The Antarctic

AbstractThe Antarctic ice sheet has been reconstructed at 18000 years b.p. by Hughes and others (in press) using an ice-flow model. The volume of the portion of this reconstruction which contributed to a rise of post-glacial eustatic sea-level has been calculated and found to be (9.8±1.5) × 106km3. This volume is equivalent to 25±4 m of eustatic sea-level rise, defined as the volume of water added to the ocean divided by ocean area. The total volume of the reconstructed Antarctic ice sheet was found to be (37±6) × 106km3. If the results of Hughes and others are correct, Antarctica was the second largest contributor to post-glacial eustatic sea-level rise after the Laurentide ice sheet. The Farrell and Clark (1976) model for computation of the relative sea-level changes caused by changes in ice and water loading on a visco-elastic Earth has been applied to the ice-sheet reconstruction, and the results have been combined with the changes in relative sea-level caused by Northern Hemisphere deglaciation as previously calculated by Clark and others (1978). Three families of curves have been compiled, showing calculated relative sea-level change at different times near the margin of the possibly unstable West Antarctic ice sheet in the Ross Sea, Pine Island Bay, and the Weddell Sea. The curves suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet remained grounded to the edge of the continental shelf untilc. 13000 years b.p., when the rate of sea-level rise due to northern ice disintegration became sufficient to dominate emergence near the margin predicted otherwise to have been caused by shrinkage of the Antarctic ice mass. In addition, the curves suggest that falling relative sea-levels played a significant role in slowing and, perhaps, reversing retreat when grounding lines approached their present positions in the Ross and Weddell Seas. A predicted fall of relative sea-level beneath the central Ross Ice Shelf of as much as 23 m during the past 2000 years is found to be compatible with recent field evidence that the ice shelf is thickening in the south-east quadrant.

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A Model for Holocene Retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Quaternary Research ◽

10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4 ◽

1978 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 150-170 ◽

Cited By ~ 249

Author(s):

Robert H. Thomas ◽

Charles R. Bentley

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Ice Streams ◽

The West ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Shelves ◽

Ross Ice Shelf ◽

West Antarctic

Marine ice sheets are grounded on land which was below sea level before it became depressed under the ice-sheet load. They are inherently unstable and, because of bedrock topography after depression, the collapse of a marine ice sheet may be very rapid. In this paper equations are derived that can be used to make a quantitative estimate of the maximum size of a marine ice sheet and of when and how rapidly retreat would take place under prescribed conditions. Ice-sheet growth is favored by falling sea level and uplift of the seabed. In most cases the buttressing effect of a partially grounded ice shelf is a prerequisite for maximum growth out to the edge of the continental shelf. Collapse is triggered most easily by eustatic rise in sea level, but it is possible that the ice sheet may self-destruct by depressing the edge of the continental shelf so that sea depth is increased at the equilibrium grounding line.Application of the equations to a hypothetical “Ross Ice Sheet” that 18,000 yr ago may have covered the present-day Ross Ice Shelf indicates that, if the ice sheet existed, it probably extended to a line of sills parallel to the edge of the Ross Sea continental shelf. By allowing world sea level to rise from its late-Wisconsin minimum it was possible to calculate retreat rates for individual ice streams that drained the “Ross Ice Sheet.” For all the models tested, retreat began soon after sea level began to rise (∼15,000 yr B.P.). The first 100 km of retreat took between 1500 and 2500 yr but then retreat rates rapidly accelerated to between 0.5 and 25 km yr−1, depending on whether an ice shelf was present or not, with corresponding ice velocities across the grounding line of 4 to 70 km yr−1. All models indicate that most of the present-day Ross Ice Shelf was free of grounded ice by about 7000 yr B.P. As the ice streams retreated floating ice shelves may have formed between promontories of slowly collapsing stagnant ice left behind by the rapidly retreating ice streams. If ice shelves did not form during retreat then the analysis indicates that most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would have collapsed by 9000 yr B.P. Thus, the present-day Ross Ice Shelf (and probably the Ronne Ice Shelf) serves to stabilize the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would collapse very rapidly if the ice shelves were removed. This provides support for the suggestion that the 6-m sea-level high during the Sangamon Interglacial was caused by collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet after climatic warming had sufficiently weakened the ice shelves. Since the West Antarctic Ice Sheet still exists it seems likely that ice shelves did form during Holocene retreat. Their effect was to slow and, finally, to halt retreat. The models that best fit available data require a rather low shear stress between the ice shelf and its sides, and this implies that rapid shear in this region encouraged the formation of a band of ice with a preferred crystal fabric, as appears to be happening today in the floating portions of fast bounded glaciers.Rebound of the seabed after the ice sheet had retreated to an equilibrium position would allow the ice sheet to advance once more. This may be taking place today since analysis of data from the Ross Ice Shelf indicates that the southeast corner is probably growing thicker with time, and if this persists then large areas of ice shelf must become grounded. This would restrict drainage from West Antarctic ice streams which would tend to thicken and advance their grounding lines into the ice shelf.

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Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate

The Cryosphere ◽

10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 1579-1600 ◽

Cited By ~ 81

Author(s):

S. L. Cornford ◽

D. F. Martin ◽

A. J. Payne ◽

E. G. Ng ◽

A. M. Le Brocq ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

The West ◽

Amundsen Sea ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

Ice Accumulation ◽

Grounding Line ◽

Ocean Models

Abstract. We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise.

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A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Earth System Science Data ◽

10.5194/essd-10-711-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (2) ◽

pp. 711-725 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Hafeez Jeofry ◽

Neil Ross ◽

Hugh F. J. Corr ◽

Jilu Li ◽

Mathieu Morlighem ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Weddell Sea ◽

The West ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

Bed Elevation ◽

Grounding Line ◽

Elevation Model

Abstract. We present a new digital elevation model (DEM) of the bed, with a 1 km gridding, of the Weddell Sea (WS) sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The DEM has a total area of ∼ 125 000 km2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams, as well as the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also improve bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Polarimetric radar Airborne Science Instrument (PASIN) in 2010–2011, from the relatively crude measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes used in Bedmap2. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep subglacial trough (∼ 2 km below sea level) between the ice-sheet interior and the grounding line of the Foundation Ice Stream have been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water and, by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2, we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the potential vulnerability of this sector to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of the improved definition of the Foundation Ice Stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region and, from this, the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the WS sector can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.

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A new bed elevation model for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

10.5194/essd-2017-90 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Hafeez Jeofry ◽

Neil Ross ◽

Hugh F. J. Corr ◽

Jilu Li ◽

Prasad Gogineni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Weddell Sea ◽

The West ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

Bed Elevation ◽

Grounding Line ◽

Elevation Model

Abstract. We present a new bed elevation digital elevation model (DEM), with a 1 km spatial resolution, for the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The DEM has a total area of ~125,000 km2 covering the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams and the Bungenstock ice rise. In comparison with the Bedmap2 product, our DEM includes several new aerogeophysical datasets acquired by the Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) through the NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) program in 2012, 2014 and 2016. We also update bed elevation information from the single largest existing dataset in the region, collected by the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Polarimetric Airborne Survey Instrument (PASIN) in 2010-11, as BEDMAP2 included only relatively crude ice thickness measurements determined in the field for quality control purposes. This have resulted in the deep parts of the topography not being visible in the fieldwork non-SAR processed radargrams. While the gross form of the new DEM is similar to Bedmap2, there are some notable differences. For example, the position and size of a deep trough (~ 2 km below sea level) between the ice sheet interior and the grounding line of Foundation ice stream has been redefined. From the revised DEM, we are able to better derive the expected routing of basal water at the ice-bed interface, and by comparison with that calculated using Bedmap2 we are able to assess regions where hydraulic flow is sensitive to change. Given the sensitivity of this sector of the ice sheet to ocean-induced melting at the grounding line, especially in light of improved definition of the Foundation ice stream trough, our revised DEM will be of value to ice-sheet modelling in efforts to quantify future glaciological changes in the region, and therefore the potential impact on global sea level. The new 1 km bed elevation product of the Weddell Sea sector, West Antarctica can be found in the http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1035488.

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Grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from inner Pine Island Bay

Geology ◽

10.1130/g33469.1 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 41 (1) ◽

pp. 35-38 ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

C.-D. Hillenbrand ◽

G. Kuhn ◽

J. A. Smith ◽

K. Gohl ◽

A. G. C. Graham ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ice Sheet ◽

The West ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

Grounding Line

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Dynamical processes involved in the retreat of marine ice sheets

Journal of Glaciology ◽

10.3189/172756501781832269 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 47 (157) ◽

pp. 271-282 ◽

Cited By ~ 95

Author(s):

Richard C.A. Hindmarsh ◽

E. Le Meur

Keyword(s):

Ice Sheets ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Shelf ◽

Ice Streams ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

Grounding Line ◽

Neutral Equilibrium ◽

Generally True

AbstractMarine ice sheets with mechanics described by the shallow-ice approximation by definition do not couple mechanically with the shelf. Such ice sheets are known to have neutral equilibria. We consider the implications of this for their dynamics and in particular for mechanisms which promote marine ice-sheet retreat. The removal of ice-shelf buttressing leading to enhanced flow in grounded ice is discounted as a significant influence on mechanical grounds. Sea-level rise leading to reduced effective pressures under ice streams is shown to be a feasible mechanism for producing postglacial West Antarctic ice-sheet retreat but is inconsistent with borehole evidence. Warming thins the ice sheet by reducing the average viscosity but does not lead to grounding-line retreat. Internal oscillations either specified or generated via a MacAyeal–Payne thermal mechanism promote migration. This is a noise-induced drift phenomenon stemming from the neutral equilibrium property of marine ice sheets. This migration occurs at quite slow rates, but these are sufficiently large to have possibly played a role in the dynamics of the West Antarctic ice sheet after the glacial maximum. Numerical experiments suggest that it is generally true that while significant changes in thickness can be caused by spatially uniform changes, spatial variability coupled with dynamical variability is needed to cause margin movement.

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Simultaneous solution for mass trends on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

The Cryosphere Discussions ◽

10.5194/tcd-8-2995-2014 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 2995-3035 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

N. Schön ◽

A. Zammit-Mangion ◽

J. L. Bamber ◽

J. Rougier ◽

T. Flament ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Antarctic Peninsula ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

The West ◽

Spatial Error ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

Forward Models ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest potential source of future sea-level rise. Mass loss has been increasing over the last two decades in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but with significant discrepancies between estimates, especially for the Antarctic Peninsula. Most of these estimates utilise geophysical models to explicitly correct the observations for (unobserved) processes. Systematic errors in these models introduce biases in the results which are difficult to quantify. In this study, we provide a statistically rigorous, error-bounded trend estimate of ice mass loss over the WAIS from 2003–2009 which is almost entirely data-driven. Using altimetry, gravimetry, and GPS data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we derive spatial fields for ice mass change, surface mass balance, and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) without relying explicitly on forward models. The approach we use separates mass and height change contributions from different processes, reproducing spatial features found in, for example, regional climate and GIA forward models, and provides an independent estimate, which can be used to validate and test the models. In addition, full spatial error estimates are derived for each field. The mass loss estimates we obtain are smaller than some recent results, with a time-averaged mean rate of −76 ± 15 GT yr−1 for the WAIS and Antarctic Peninsula (AP), including the major Antarctic Islands. The GIA estimate compares very well with results obtained from recent forward models (IJ05-R2) and inversion methods (AGE-1). Due to its computational efficiency, the method is sufficiently scalable to include the whole of Antarctica, can be adapted for other ice sheets and can easily be adapted to assimilate data from other sources such as ice cores, accumulation radar data and other measurements that contain information about any of the processes that are solved for.

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Monitoring changes of the Antarctic Ice sheet by GRACE, ICESat and GNSS

Contributions to Geophysics and Geodesy ◽

10.2478/congeo-2019-0021 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 49 (4) ◽

pp. 403-424

Author(s):

Fang Zou ◽

Robert Tenzer ◽

Samurdhika Rathnayake

Keyword(s):

Mass Loss ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

The West ◽

Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

West Antarctic Ice Sheet ◽

Ice Volume ◽

West Antarctic ◽

Elevation Changes ◽

A Minor ◽

The Antarctic

Abstract In this study, we estimate the ice mass changes, the ice elevation changes and the vertical displacements in Antarctica based on analysis of multi-geodetic datasets that involve the satellite gravimetry (GRACE), the satellite altimetry (ICESat) and the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). According to our estimates, the total mass change of the Antarctic ice sheet from GRACE data is −162.91 Gt/yr over the investigated period between April 2002 and June 2017. This value was obtained after applying the GIA correction of −98.12 Gt/yr derived from the ICE-5G model of the glacial iso-static adjustment. A more detailed analysis of mass balance changes for three individual drainage regions in Antarctica reveal that the mass loss of the West Antarctic ice sheet was at a rate of −143.11 Gt/yr. The mass loss of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet was at a rate of −24.31 Gt/yr. The mass of the East Antarctic ice sheet increased at a rate of 5.29 Gt/yr during the investigated period. When integrated over the entire Antarctic ice sheet, average rates of ice elevation changes over the period from March 2003 to October 2009 derived from ICESat data represent the loss of total ice volume of −155.6 km3.The most prominent features in ice volume changes in Antarctica are characterized by a strong dynamic thinning and ice mass loss in the Amundsen Sea Embayment that is part of the West Antarctic ice sheet. In contrast, coastal regions between Dronning Maud Land and Enderby Land exhibit a minor ice increase, while a minor ice mass loss is observed in Wilkes Land. The vertical load displacement rates estimated from GRACE and GPS data relatively closely agree with the GIA model derived based on the ice-load history and the viscosity profile. For most sites, the GRACE signal appears to be in phase and has the same amplitude as that obtained from the GPS vertical motions while other sites exhibit some substantial differences possibly attributed to thermo-elastic deformations associated with surface temperature.

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