scholarly journals Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 615-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tedesco ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
T. Mote ◽  
J. Wahr ◽  
P. Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ∼97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ∼2 months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ∼3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance (SMB) was ∼3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g., albedo, surface temperature) and preconditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should these characteristics persist.

scholarly journals Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 4939-4976 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tedesco ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
T. Mote ◽  
J. Wahr ◽  
P. Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ~ 97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ~ two months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ~ 3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance was ~ 3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g. albedo) and pre-conditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Because of self-amplifying positive feedbacks, less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should large-scale atmospheric circulation and induced surface characteristics observed over the past decade persist. Since the general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) do not simulate the abnormal anticyclonic circulation resulting from extremely negative NAO conditions as observed over recent years, contribution to sea level rise projected under different warming scenarios will be underestimated should the trend in NAO summer values continue.

scholarly journals Impact of spatial resolution on the modelling of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance between 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 695-711 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Franco ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
C. Lang ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Dynamical Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. With the aim to force an ice dynamical model, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) was modelled at different spatial resolutions (15–50 km) for the period 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. This comparison revealed that (i) the inter-annual variability of the SMB components is consistent within the different spatial resolutions investigated, (ii) the MAR model simulates heavier precipitation on average over the GrIS with decreasing spatial resolution, and (iii) the SMB components (except precipitation) can be derived from a simulation at lower resolution with an "intelligent" interpolation. This interpolation can also be used to approximate the SMB components over another topography/ice sheet mask of the GrIS. These results are important for the forcing of an ice dynamical model needed to enable future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea level rise over the coming centuries.

scholarly journals Probabilistic parameterisation of the surface mass balance–elevation feedback in regional climate model simulations of the Greenland ice sheet

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 181-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. L. Edwards ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
O. Gagliardini ◽  
F. Gillet-Chaulet ◽  
H. Goelzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The North

Abstract. We present a new parameterisation that relates surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) to changes in surface elevation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) for the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) regional climate model. The motivation is to dynamically adjust SMB as the GrIS evolves, allowing us to force ice sheet models with SMB simulated by MAR while incorporating the SMB–elevation feedback, without the substantial technical challenges of coupling ice sheet and climate models. This also allows us to assess the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on the GrIS contribution to sea level, using multiple global climate and ice sheet models, without the need for additional, expensive MAR simulations. We estimate this relationship separately below and above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA, separating negative and positive SMB) and for regions north and south of 77° N, from a set of MAR simulations in which we alter the ice sheet surface elevation. These give four "SMB lapse rates", gradients that relate SMB changes to elevation changes. We assess uncertainties within a Bayesian framework, estimating probability distributions for each gradient from which we present best estimates and credibility intervals (CI) that bound 95% of the probability. Below the ELA our gradient estimates are mostly positive, because SMB usually increases with elevation: 0.56 (95% CI: −0.22 to 1.33) kg m−3 a−1 for the north, and 1.91 (1.03 to 2.61) kg m−3 a−1 for the south. Above the ELA, the gradients are much smaller in magnitude: 0.09 (−0.03 to 0.23) kg m−3 a−1 in the north, and 0.07 (−0.07 to 0.59) kg m−3 a−1 in the south, because SMB can either increase or decrease in response to increased elevation. Our statistically founded approach allows us to make probabilistic assessments for the effect of elevation feedback uncertainty on sea level projections (Edwards et al., 2014).

scholarly journals Impact of spatial resolution on the modelling of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance between 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 635-672 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Franco ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
C. Lang ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Dynamical Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. With the aim to force an ice dynamical model, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) was modelled at different spatial resolutions (15–50 km) for the period 1990–2010, using the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) forced by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. This comparison revealed that (i) the inter-annual variability of the SMB components is consistent within the different spatial resolutions investigated, (ii) the MAR model simulates heavier precipitation on average over the GrIS with diminishing spatial resolution, and (iii) the SMB components (except precipitation) can be derived from a simulation at lower resolution with an ''intelligent'' interpolation. This interpolation can also be used to approximate the SMB components over another topography/ice sheet mask of the GrIS. These results are important for the forcing of an ice dynamical model, needed to enable future projections of the GrIS contribution to sea level rise over the coming centuries.

scholarly journals A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958–2015)

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 2361-2377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brice Noël ◽  
Willem Jan van de Berg ◽  
Horst Machguth ◽  
Stef Lhermitte ◽  
Ian Howat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
Elevation Model

Abstract. This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements.

scholarly journals Coupling of climate models and ice sheet models by surface mass balance gradients: application to the Greenland Ice Sheet

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. M. Helsen ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
J. Oerlemans
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate

Abstract. It is notoriously difficult to couple surface mass balance (SMB) results from climate models to the changing geometry of an ice sheet model. This problem is traditionally avoided by using only accumulation from a climate model, and parameterizing the meltwater run-off as a function of temperature, which is often related to surface elevation (Hs). In this study, we propose a new strategy to calculate SMB, to allow a direct adjustment of SMB to a change in ice sheet topography and/or a change in climate forcing. This method is based on elevational gradients in the SMB field as computed by a regional climate model. Separate linear relations are derived for ablation and accumulation, using pairs of Hs and SMB within a minimum search radius. The continuously adjusting SMB forcing is consistent with climate model forcing fields, also for initially non-glaciated areas in the peripheral areas of an ice sheet. When applied to an asynchronous coupled ice sheet – climate model setup, this method circumvents traditional temperature lapse rate assumptions. Here we apply it to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Experiments using both steady-state forcing and glacial-interglacial forcing result in realistic ice sheet reconstructions.

scholarly journals Greenland surface mass balance simulated by a regional climate model and comparison with satellite-derived data in 1990–1991

2005 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 623-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Fettweis ◽  
Hubert Gallée ◽  
Filip Lefebre ◽  
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Derived Data

scholarly journals Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 469-489 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Fettweis ◽  
B. Franco ◽  
M. Tedesco ◽  
J. H. van Angelen ◽  
J. T. M. Lenaerts ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

scholarly journals Future projections of the climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard with the regional climate model MAR

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Lang ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
M. Erpicum
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Caps ◽  
The North

Abstract. We have performed future projections of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR regional climate model forced by the MIROC5 global model, following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of the melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago and the ice caps. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a strong winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. At the end of the century (2070–2099 mean), SMB is projected to be negative over the entire Svalbard and, by 2085, all glaciated regions of Svalbard are predicted to undergo net ablation, meaning that, under the RCP8.5 scenario, all the glaciers and ice caps are predicted to start their irreversible retreat before the end of the 21st century.

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