Atmospheric boundary layer during northeast monsoon over Tamilnadu and neighbourhood - A study using TOVS data

Thermodynamic structure of atmospheric boundary layer during October - December covering southwest and northeast monsoon activities over interior Tamilnadu (ITN), coastal Tamilnadu (CTN) and adjoining Bay of Bengal (BOB) has been studied using TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data of 1996-98. Heights of neutral stratified mixed layer, cloud layer and planetary boundary layer (PBL) have been estimated through available standard pressure level data. Highest PBL occurs during active northeast monsoon. Cloud layer thickness during weak northeast monsoon over interior Tamilnadu is significantly higher than that over coastal Tamilnadu and also over Bay of Bengal. Convective stability (instability) of the atmosphere in 850-700 hPa layer is associated with weak / withdrawal (active) phase of northeast monsoon. One of the plausible reasons for subdued rainfall activity during weak northeast monsoon over interior Tamilnadu could be convective instability seen over this region in 850-700 hPa layer. But the same is absent in CTN and BOB where no rainfall activity exists during weak monsoon phase. Virtual temperature lapse rate in 850-700 hPa layer exceeding (less than) 6oK/km is associated with active (weak) phase of northeast monsoon over the interior, coastal Tamilnadu and Bay of Bengal.

Stronger Arctic amplification from ozone-depleting substances than from carbon dioxide

Arctic amplification (AA) - the greater warming of the Arctic near-surface temperature relative to its global mean value - is a prominent feature of the climate response to increasing greenhouse gases. Recent work has revealed the importance of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) in contributing to Arctic warming and sea-ice loss. Here, using ensembles of climate model integrations, we expand on that work and directly contrast Arctic warming from ODS to that from carbon dioxide (CO$_2$), over the 1955-2005 period when ODS loading peaked. We find that the Arctic warming and sea-ice loss from ODS are slightly more than half (52-59\%) those from CO$_2$. We further show that the strength of AA for ODS is 1.44 times larger than that for CO$_2$, and that this mainly stems from more positive Planck, albedo, lapse-rate, and cloud feedbacks. Our results suggest that AA would be considerably stronger than presently observed had the Montreal Protocol not been signed.

Does disabling cloud radiative feedbacks change spatial patterns of surface greenhouse warming and cooling?

The processes controlling idealized warming and cooling patterns are examined in 150 year-long fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) experiments under abrupt CO2 forcing. By simulation end, 2xCO2 global warming was 20% larger than 0.5xCO2 global cooling. Not only was the absolute global effective radiative forcing ∼10% larger for 2xCO2 than for 0.5xCO2, global feedbacks were also less negative for 2xCO2 than for 0.5xCO2. Specifically, more positive shortwave cloud feedbacks led to more 2xCO2 global warming than 0.5xCO2 global cooling. Over high latitude oceans, differences between 2xCO2 warming and 0.5xCO2 cooling were amplified by familiar linked positive surface albedo and lapse rate feedbacks associated with sea ice change. At low latitudes, 2xCO2 warming exceeded 0.5xCO2 cooling almost everywhere. Tropical Pacific cloud feedbacks amplified: 1) more fast warming than fast cooling in the west, 2) slow pattern differences between 2xCO2 warming and 0.5xCO2 cooling in the east. Motivated to quantify cloud influence, a companion suite of experiments were run without cloud radiative feedbacks. Disabling cloud radiative feedbacks reduced the effective radiative forcing and surface temperature responses for both 2xCO2 and 0.5xCO2. Notably, 20% more global warming than global cooling occurred regardless of whether cloud feedbacks were enabled or disabled. This surprising consistency resulted from the cloud influence on non-cloud feedbacks and circulation. With the exception of the Tropical Pacific, disabling cloud feedbacks did little to change surface temperature response patterns including the large high-latitude responses driven by non-cloud feedbacks. The findings provide new insights into the regional processes controlling the response to greenhouse gas forcing, especially for clouds.

Causes of the Arctic’s Lower-Tropospheric Warming Structure

Arctic amplification has been attributed predominantly to a positive lapse rate feedback in winter, when boundary-layer temperature inversions focus warming near the surface. Predicting high-latitude climate change effectively thus requires identifying the local and remote physical processes that set the Arctic’s vertical warming structure. In this study, we analyze output from the CESM Large Ensemble’s 21st century climate change projection to diagnose the relative influence of two Arctic heating sources, local sea-ice loss and remote changes in atmospheric heat transport. Causal effects are quantified with a statistical inference method, allowing us to assess the energetic pathways mediating the Arctic temperature response and the role of internal variability across the ensemble. We find that a step-increase in latent heat flux convergence causes Arctic lower-tropospheric warming in all seasons, while additionally reducing net longwave cooling at the surface. However, these effects only lead to small and short-lived changes in boundary layer inversion strength. By contrast, a step-decrease in sea-ice extent in the melt season causes, in fall and winter, surface-amplified warming and weakened boundary-layer temperature inversions. Sea-ice loss also enhances surface turbulent heat fluxes and cloud-driven condensational heating, which mediate the atmospheric temperature response. While the aggregate effect of many moist transport events and seasons of sea-ice loss will be different than the response to hypothetical perturbations, our results nonetheless highlight the mechanisms that alter the Arctic temperature inversion in response to CO2 forcing. As sea ice declines, the atmosphere’s boundary-layer temperature structure is weakened, static stability decreases, and a thermodynamic coupling emerges between the Arctic surface and the overlying troposphere.

Analysis of Near-Surface Temperature Lapse Rates in Mountain Ecosystems of Northern Mexico Using Landsat-8 Satellite Images and ECOSTRESS

Mountain ecosystems provide environmental goods, which can be threatened by climate change. Near-Surface Temperature Lapse Rate (NSTLR) is an essential factor used for thermal and hydrological analysis in mountain ecosystems. The aims of the present study were to estimate NSTLR and to identify its relationship with aspect, Local solar zenith angle (LSZA) and Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) for two seasons of the year in a mountain ecosystem at the North of Mexico. Normalized Land Surface Temperature (NLST) was estimated using environmental and topographical variables. LSZA was calculated from slope to consider the effect of solar position. NSTLR was estimated through simple linear models. Observed NSTLR was 9.4 °C km−1 for the winter and 14.3 °C km−1 for the summer. Our results showed variation in NSTLR by season. In addition, aspect, LSZA and ESI also influenced NSTLR regulation. In addition, Northwest and West aspects exhibited the highest NSTLR. LSZA angles closest to 90° were related with a decrease in NSTLR for both seasons. Finally, ESI values associated with less evaporative stress were related to lower NSTLR. These results suggest potential of Landsat-8 LST and ECOSTRESS ESI to capture interactions of temperature, topography, and water stress in complex ecosystems.

Vertical wind tunnel experiments and a theoretical study on the microphysics of melting low-density graupel

Vertical wind tunnel experiments were carried out to investigate the melting of low-density lump graupel while floating at their terminal velocities. The graupel characteristics such as maximum dimension, density, and axis ratio, were 0.39 ± 0.06 cm, 0.41 ± 0.07 g cm−3, and 0.89 ± 0.06. The air stream of the wind tunnel was gradually heated simulating lapse rates between 4.5 K km−1 and 3.21 K km−1. Each experimental run was performed at a constant relative humidity that was varied between 12 % and 92 % from one experiment to the other. From the image processing of video recordings, variations in minimum and maximum dimension, volume, aspect ratio, density, volume equivalent radius, and ice core radius were obtained. New parameterizations of the terminal velocity prior to melting and during melting were developed. It was found that mass and heat transfer in the dry stage is two times higher compared to that of liquid drops at the same Reynolds number. Based on the experimental results a model was developed from which the external and internal convective enhancement factors during melting due to surface irregularities and internal motions inside the melt water were derived using a Monte Carlo approach. The modelled total melting times and distances deviated by 10 % from the experimental results. Sensitivity tests with the developed model revealed strong dependencies of the melting process on relative humidity, lapse rate, initial graupel density, and graupel size. In dependence on these parameters, the total melting distance varied between 600 m and 1200 m for typical conditions of a falling graupel.

Dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheet emerging from interacting melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks

The stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet under global warming is governed by a number of dynamic processes and interacting feedback mechanisms in the ice sheet, atmosphere and solid Earth. Here we study the long-term effects due to the interplay of the competing melt-elevation and glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) feedbacks for different temperature step forcing experiments with a coupled ice-sheet and solid-Earth model. Our model results show that for warming levels above 2 °C, Greenland could become essentially ice-free on the long-term, mainly as a result of surface melting and acceleration of ice flow. These ice losses can be mitigated, however, in some cases with strong GIA feedback even promoting the partial recovery of the Greenland ice volume. We further explore the full-factorial parameter space determining the relative strengths of the two feedbacks: Our findings suggest distinct dynamic regimes of the Greenland Ice Sheets on the route to destabilization under global warming – from recovery, via quasi-periodic oscillations in ice volume to ice-sheet collapse. In the recovery regime, the initial ice loss due to warming is essentially reversed within 50,000 years and the ice volume stabilizes at 61–93 % of the present-day volume. For certain combinations of temperature increase, atmospheric lapse rate and mantle viscosity, the interaction of the GIA feedback and the melt-elevation feedback leads to self-sustained, long-term oscillations in ice-sheet volume with oscillation periods of tens to hundreds of thousands of years and oscillation amplitudes between 15–70 % of present-day ice volume. This oscillatory regime reveals a possible mode of internal climatic variability in the Earth system on time scales on the order of 100,000 years that may be excited by or synchronized with orbital forcing or interact with glacial cycles and other slow modes of variability. Our findings are not meant as scenario-based near-term projections of ice losses but rather providing insight into of the feedback loops governing the "deep future" and, thus, long-term resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Variations in Atmospheric Energy Transport across the Arctic Circle

<p>Understanding the variability of energy transport and its components, and the mechanisms involved, is critical to improve our understanding of the Arctic amplification. Large amounts of energy are transported from the equator to the poles by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. At the Arctic Circle, this represents an annual average net transport of about two PW. The energy transport can be divided into latent and dry static components which, when increasing, indirectly contribute to the Arctic amplification. While the enhanced dry static energy transport favors sea ice melt and changes the lapse rate, the enhanced influx of latent energy affects the water vapor content and cloud formation, and thus also the lapse rate and sea ice melt via radiative effects.</p> <p>In this study, 40 years (1979-2018) of 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to calculate the energy transport and its components. Inconsistencies due to spurious mass-flux are accounted for by barotropic wind field correction before the calculation. The first and last decade of the ERA-Interim period differ in terms of sea ice cover, sea surface temperature, and greenhouse gas concentrations, all of which affect the atmospheric circulation.</p> <p>The comparison between these periods shows significant changes in monthly and annual vertically integrated energy transport across the Arctic Circle. On an annual average, energy transport significantly increases in the late period for both total energy and its components, whereas the transport of dry static energy decreases in the winter season. The analysis of the atmospheric circulation reveals variations in the frequency of occurrence of preferred circulation regimes and the associated anomalies in energy transport as a potential cause for the observed changes.</p> <p>The hemispheric-scale and climatological view provides an expanded overall picture in terms of poleward energy transport to atmospheric events as cold air outbreaks and atmospheric rivers. This is demonstrated using the example of the atmospheric river which occurred over Svalbard on 6<sup>th</sup> & 7<sup>th</sup> June 2017.</p>

Causes of the Arctic's Lower-Tropospheric Warming Structure

Arctic amplification has been attributed predominantly to a positive lapse rate feedback in winter, when boundary-layer temperature inversions focus warming near the surface. Predicting high-latitude climate change effectively thus requires identifying the local and remote physical processes that set the Arctic’s vertical warming structure. In this study, we analyze output from the CESM Large Ensemble's 21st century climate change projection to diagnose the relative influence of two Arctic heating sources, local sea-ice loss and remote changes in atmospheric heat transport. Causal effects are quantified with a statistical inference method, allowing us to assess the energetic pathways mediating the Arctic temperature response and the role of internal variability across the ensemble. We find that a step-increase in latent heat flux convergence causes Arctic lower-tropospheric warming in all seasons, while additionally reducing net longwave cooling at the surface. However, these effects only lead to small and short-lived changes in boundary layer inversion strength. By contrast, a step-decrease in sea-ice extent in the melt season causes, in fall and winter, surface-amplified warming and weakened boundary-layer temperature inversions. Sea-ice loss also enhances surface turbulent heat fluxes and cloud-driven condensational heating, which mediate the atmospheric temperature response. While the aggregate effect of many moist transport events and seasons of sea-ice loss will be different than the response to hypothetical perturbations, our results nonetheless highlight the mechanisms that alter the Arctic temperature inversion in response to CO2 forcing. As sea ice declines, the atmosphere’s boundary-layer temperature structure is weakened, static stability decreases, and a thermodynamic coupling emerges between the Arctic surface and the overlying troposphere.

Determination of Tropical Belt Widening Using Multiple GNSS Radio Occultation Measurements

In the last decades, Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) have provided an exceptional opportunity to retrieve atmospheric parameters globally through GNSS radio occultation (GNSS-RO). In this paper, data of 12 GNSS-RO missions from June 2001 to November 2020 with high resolution were used to investigate the possible widening of the tropical belt along with the probable drivers and impacts in both hemispheres. Applying both lapse rate tropopause (LRT) and cold point tropopause (CPT) definitions, the global tropopause height shows increase of approximately 36 m/decade and 60 m/decade, respectively. Moreover, the tropical edge latitude (TEL) estimated based on two tropopause height metrics, in the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH), are different from each other. For the first metric, subjective method, the tropical width from GNSS has expansion behavior in NH with ~ 0.41°/decade and a minor expansion in SH with ~ 0.08°/decade. In case of ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) there is no significant contraction in both NH and SH. For Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), there are expansion behavior in NH with ~ 0.34°/decade and strong contraction in SH with ~ −0.48°/decade. Using the second metric, objective method, the tropical width from GNSS has expansion in NH with ~ 0.13°/decade, and no significant expansion in SH. In case of ERA5, there is no significant signal in NH while SH has a minor contraction. AIRS has an expansion with ~ 0.13°/decade in NH, and strong contraction in SH with ~ −0.37°/decade. The variability of tropopause parameters (temperature and height) is maximum around the TEL locations at both hemispheres. The total column ozone (TCO) shows increasing rates globally, and the rate of increase at the SH is higher than that of the NH. There is a good agreement between the spatial and temporal patterns of TCO variability and the TEL location estimated from GNSS LRT height. Carbon dioxide (CO2), and Methane (CH4), the most important greenhouse gases (GHGs) and the main drivers of global warming, have a global increasing rate and the increasing rate of the NH is similar to that of the SH. The spatial pattern in the NH is located more pole ward than its equivalent at the SH. Both surface temperature and precipitation increase in time and have strong correlation with GNSS LRT height. Both show higher increasing rates at the NH, while the precipitation at the SH has slight decrease and the surface temperature increases. The surface temperature shows a spatial pattern with strong variability, which broadly agrees with the TEL locations. The spatial pattern of precipitation shows northward occurrence. In addition, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has no direct connection with the TEL behavior.