Abstract. A future of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations,
changing climate, growing human populations, and shifting
socioeconomic conditions means that the global agricultural system
will need to adapt in order to feed the world. These changes will
affect not only agricultural land but terrestrial ecosystems in
general. Here, we use the coupled land use and vegetation model LandSyMM (Land System Modular Model) to quantify future land use change (LUC) and resulting
impacts on ecosystem service indicators relating to carbon
sequestration, runoff, biodiversity, and nitrogen pollution. We
additionally hold certain variables, such as climate or land use,
constant to assess the relative contribution of different drivers to
the projected impacts. Some ecosystem services depend critically on
land use and management: for example, carbon storage, the gain in
which is more than 2.5 times higher in a low-LUC scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 4 and Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0; SSP4-60)
than a high-LUC one with the same carbon dioxide and climate
trajectory (SSP3-60). Other trends are mostly dominated by the
direct effects of climate change and carbon dioxide increase. For
example, in those two scenarios, extreme high monthly runoff
increases across 54 % and 53 % of land,
respectively, with a mean increase of 23 % in
both. Scenarios in which climate change mitigation is more difficult
(SSPs 3 and 5) have the strongest impacts
on ecosystem service indicators, such as a loss of 13 %–19 %
of land in biodiversity hotspots and a 28 % increase in
nitrogen pollution. Evaluating a suite of ecosystem service
indicators across scenarios enables the identification of tradeoffs
and co-benefits associated with different climate change mitigation
and adaptation strategies and socioeconomic developments.
Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning
