The Impact of Economic And National Identity Loss Messages, And The Moderating Effect of Political Orientation, On Climate Change Policy Support

As climate change continues to be politically divisive, developing communications that align with right-leaning beliefs may increase bipartisan support for climate policy. In two experimental studies (Study 1, Australia, N = 558; Study 2, United States, N = 859), we tested whether an economic loss or national identity loss message would elicit greater support for mitigation and adaptation policies when compared to one another and to a control message. We also tested whether the direct effects of these message types were conditional on political orientation (specifically, identifying as politically right-leaning). In both studies, preliminary analyses indicated that the message manipulations were effective and that there was a high level of support for both types of climate policy. When compared to left-wing adherents, those who were politically right-leaning were less likely to support mitigation and adaptation policies in either sample. Australian (Study 1) identification – although not American identity (Study 2) – also uniquely predicted adaptation support (but not mitigation support). Yet, there were no significant message frame or interaction effects in the Australian (Study 1) or U.S. sample (Study 2). This suggests that neither an economic loss nor national identity loss message frame may be effective in overcoming the political polarization of climate change in Australia or the United States. Nevertheless, national identity could still play a useful role in Australian climate communications given its positive relationship to adaptation policy support, and therefore warrants further investigation.

Endless November? Citizen Beliefs Concerning Wood As A Construction Material Under Extreme Weather Events

Climate change places great pressure on the construction sector to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions and to create solutions that perform well in changing weather conditions. In the urbanizing world, wood construction has been identified as one of the opportunities for mitigating these emissions. Our study explores citizen opinions on wood usage as a building material under expected mitigation and adaptation measures aimed at a changing climate and extreme weather events. The data are founded on an internet-based survey material collected from a consumer panel from Finland and Sweden during May–June 2021, with a total of 2015 responses. By employing exploratory factor analysis, we identified similar belief structures for the two countries, consisting of both positive and negative views on wood construction. In linear regressions for predicting these opinions, the perceived seriousness of climate change was found to increase positive views on wood construction but was insignificant for negative views. Both in Finland and Sweden, higher familiarity with wooden multistory construction was found to connect with more positive opinions on the potential of wood in building, e.g., due to carbon storage properties and material attributes. Our findings underline the potential of wood material use as one avenue of climate change adaptation in the built environment. Future research should study how citizens’ concerns for extreme weather events affect their future material preferences in their everyday living environments, also beyond the Nordic region.

Bringing “Climate-Smart Forestry” Down to the Local Level—Identifying Barriers, Pathways and Indicators for Its Implementation in Practice

The theoretical concept of “climate-smart forestry” aims to integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation to maintain and enhance forests’ contributions to people and global agendas. We carried out two local transdisciplinary collaboration processes with the aim of developing local articulations of climate-smart forestry and to identify barriers, pathways and indicators to applying it in practice. During workshops in northern and southern Sweden, local stakeholders described how they would like forests to be managed, considering their past experiences, future visions and climate change. As a result, the stakeholders framed climate-smart forestry as active and diverse management towards multiple goals. They identified several conditions that could act both as barriers and pathways for its implementation in practice, such as value chains for forest products and services, local knowledge and experiences of different management alternatives, and the management of ungulates. Based on the workshop material, a total of 39 indicators for climate-smart forestry were identified, of which six were novel indicators adding to the existing literature. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding the local perspectives to promote climate-smart forestry practices across Europe. We also suggest how the concept of climate-smart forestry can be further developed, through the interplay between theory and practice.

Bringing Transition Management to Cities: Building Skills for Transformative Urban Governance

Cities are open to trialing new approaches for advancing their planning and urban governance practice. Evidence from urban research and practice shows that transition management has been widely and diversely applied for strategic planning for climate mitigation and adaptation, regeneration, as well as sectoral (energy, water, waste) and social cohesion agendas. Despite the amounting evidence of the applications of transition management, the research has not identified what it is required in terms of skills to apply such a governance framework for participatory governance in cities. In this paper, we respond to this gap by providing evidence from 11 cities across Europe that applied transition management as an approach to participatory urban governance for unpacking what transformative actions are required to strengthen urban resilience in deprived neighborhoods. Our multi-case study research and analysis reveals that a multitude of vocational and academic skills are required for the application of transition management approach including systems thinking, creativity, theory-to-practice application skills, diplomatic skills for forging partnerships and learning alliances and openness to learning-by-doing during experimentation. Transition management application in cities in the Resilient Europe project brought about positive outcomes in terms of developing new skills, embedding new knowledge about urban resilience and transition management in planning.

Potential for Return on Investment in Rehabilitation-Oriented Blue Carbon Projects: Accounting Methodologies and Project Strategies

Opportunities to boost climate change mitigation and adaptation (CCMA) and sustainable conservation financing may lie in enhancing blue carbon sequestration, particularly in developing nations where coastal ecosystems are extensive and international carbon markets offer comparatively attractive payments for environmental stewardship. While blue carbon is receiving increased global attention, few credit-generating projects are operational, due to low credit-buyer incentives with uncertainty in creditable emissions reductions and high project costs. Little empirical guidance exists for practitioners to quantify return-on-investment (ROI) and viability of potential projects, particularly for rehabilitation where multiple implementation options exist with diverse associated costs. We map and model drivers of mangrove natural regeneration (NR) using remote sensing (high-resolution satellite imagery segmentation and time-series modeling), and subsequent carbon sequestration using field- and literature-derived data, across abandoned aquaculture ponds in the Philippines. Using project-specific cost data, we then assess ROI for a hypothetical rehabilitation-focused mangrove blue carbon project at a 9.68 ha abandoned pond over a 10-year timeframe, under varied rehabilitation scenarios [NR vs. assisted natural regeneration (ANR) with planting], potential emissions reduction accreditation methodologies, carbon prices and discount rates. NR was faster in lower-lying ponds with lower tidal exposure (greater pond dike retention). Forecasted carbon sequestration was 3.7- to 5.2-fold and areal “greenbelt” regeneration 2.5- to 3.4-fold greater in our case study under ANR than NR. Variability in modeled sequestration rates drove high uncertainty and credit deductions in NR strategies. ROI with biomass-only accreditation was low and negative under NR and ANR, respectively. ROI was greater under ANR with inclusion of biomass and autochthonous soil carbon; however, neither strategy was highly profitable at current voluntary market carbon prices. ANR was the only scenario that fulfilled coastal protection greenbelt potential, with full mangrove cover within 10 years. Our findings highlight the benefits of ANR and soils inclusion in rehabilitation-oriented blue carbon projects, to maximize carbon sequestration and greenbelt enhancement (thus enhance pricing with potential bundled credits), and minimize forecasting uncertainty and credit-buyers’ perceived risk. An ANR rehabilitation strategy in low-lying, sea-facing abandoned ponds with low biophysical intervention costs may represent large blue carbon CCMA opportunities in regions with high aquaculture abandonment.

Evaluating Climate Change Impact of Rainfed Maize Production Yield in Southern Ethiopia

A developing country like Ethiopia suffers a lot from the effects of climate change due to its limited economic capability to build irrigation projects to combat climate change's impact on crop production. This study evaluates climate change's impact on rainfed maize production in the Southern part of Ethiopia. AquaCrop, developed by FAO that simulates the crop yield response to water deficit conditions, is employed to assess potential rainfed maize production in the study area with and without climate change. The Stochastic weather generators model LARS-WG of the latest version is used to simulate local-scale level climate variables based on low-resolution GCM outputs. The expected monthly percentage change of rainfall during these two-time horizons (2040 and 2060) ranges from -23.18 to 20.23% and -14.8 to 36.66 respectively. Moreover, the monthly mean of the minimum and maximum temperature are estimated to increase in the range of 1.296 0C to 2.192 0C and 0.98 0C to 1.84 0C for the first time horizon (2031-2050) and from 1.860C to 3.40C and 1.560C to 3.180C in the second time horizon (2051-2070), respectively. Maize yields are expected to increase with the range of 4.13–7% and 6.36–9.32% for the respective time horizon in the study area provided that all other parameters were kept the same. In conclusion, the study results suggest that rainfed maize yield responds positively to climate change if all field management, soil fertility, and crop variety improve were kept the same to baseline; but since there is intermodal rainfall variability among the seasons planting date should be scheduled well to combat water stress on crops. The authors believe that this study is very likely important for regional development agents (DA) and policymakers to cope up with the climate change phenomenon and take some mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Improving Climate Change Resilience in Global South Cities Through South-South Climate Finance

Climate change is likely to exacerbate inequality and poverty in Global South cities despite the presence of international agreements and conventions to enhance sustainable development such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, replicating Global North development models in the Global South might not be sufficient to address the climate change and development aspirations in the context of Asia; hence, Global North innovation capabilities might not be sufficient to address Global South climate change challenges. This paper provides an inductive analysis of the innovations and policies that could facilitate improved climate change mitigation and adaptation in the context of developing Asian cities. The paper concludes that innovative climate change policies should utilise emerging climate finance mechanisms such as South-South climate finance modalities to promote community science/citizen science and social innovation rather than building hard infrastructure as this could improve the governance and distribution of resources in cities.

Transformational Change for People and the Planet: Evaluating Environment and Development – Introduction

The world is facing multiple crises as manifested in runaway climate change, a global pandemic, loss of ecosystems and biological species, and rapidly growing inequality. These are all closely interlinked as recognized in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Addressing them will require broad transformational change that encompasses the economy, institutions, and how we interact with the natural environment. This chapter introduces the book that is intended to highlight how evaluation can contribute to such transformations. The chapter first reviews the state of development evaluation. It then briefly introduces the state of the global environment before discussing the implications of this context for evaluation, and how evaluation as a profession and practice must change in order to respond to the challenges of sustainability. The chapter ends by explaining the flow of the book in its four parts that focus on: transformational change, drivers of sustainability, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and evaluation approaches.