Aims: We investigated two single items of the Work Ability Index – work ability score, and future work ability – as predictors of register-based disability pension and long-term sickness absence over a three-year follow-up. Methods: Survey responses of 11,131 Finnish employees were linked to pension and long-term (more than 10 days) sickness absence register data by Statistics Finland. Work ability score was divided into poor (0–5), moderate (6–7) and good/excellent (8–10) and future work ability into poor (1–2) and good (3) work ability at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regressions were used in the analysis of disability pension, and a negative binomial model in the analysis of long-term sickness absence. The results were adjusted for several background, work- and health-related covariates. Results: Compared with those with good/excellent work ability scores, the hazard ratios of disability pension after adjusting for all covariates were 9.84 (95% CI 6.68–14.49) for poor and 2.25 (CI 95% 1.51–3.35) for moderate work ability score. For future work ability, the hazard ratio was 8.19 (95% CI 4.71–14.23) among those with poor future work ability. The incidence rate ratios of accumulated long-term sickness absence days were 3.08 (95% CI 2.19–4.32) and 1.59 (95% CI 1.32–1.92) for poor and moderate work ability scores, and 1.51 (95% CI 0.97–2.36) for poor future work ability. Conclusions: The single items of work ability score and future work ability predicted register-based disability pension equally well, but work ability score was a better predictor of register-based long-term sickness absence days than future work ability in a three-year follow-up. Both items seem to be of use especially when examining the risk of poor work ability for disability but also for long sick leave.
Work ability as prognostic risk marker of disability pension: single-item work ability score versus multi-item work ability index
