Nonlinear Analysis of Guillain Barré Time Series to Elucidate Its Epidemiology

The etiology of Guillain Barré Syndrome (GBS) is not fully clarified, and there is a lack of agreement concerning its putative epidemic character. The low incidence rate of this disease is a disadvantage for employing the traditional statistical methods used in the analysis of epidemics. The objective of this paper is to clarify the GBS epidemic behavior applying a nonlinear time series identification approach. The authors obtained one time series of GBS and nine series of classical infectious epidemics (5 national and 4 international). These data were processed with advanced techniques of statistical time series analysis. This paper shows that GBS behaves similar to the other time series of classical epidemic studied. It corresponds to a nonlinear dynamics, with a point attractor. The spectral analysis pointed to an annual periodicity, and preference for the warmest month of the year was found. These results might suggest that Guillain Barré Syndrome has an epidemic behavior. The adequacy of nonlinear methods for analyzing the dynamics of epidemics, particularly those with low incidence rate, such as GBS was revealed.

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The Epidemiology of Guillain-Barré Syndrome in Children under 15 Years Old in Southwest Iran

Biomedicine Hub ◽

10.1159/000480693 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (3) ◽

pp. 1-8 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Ali Akbar Momen ◽

Abdolhussein Shakurnia

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Acute Flaccid Paralysis ◽

Annual Incidence ◽

Flaccid Paralysis ◽

Guillain Barre Syndrome ◽

National Database ◽

Accurate Estimation ◽

Annual Incidence Rate ◽

Guillain Barré Syndrome ◽

Guillain Barré

Background: Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is an acute inflammatory polyneuropathy, which has become the most common cause of acute flaccid paralysis. An accurate estimation of GBS occurrence would be useful for investigating the potential causal relationships between risk factors and GBS. The aim of the study was to analyze the incidence, annual time trend, and some epidemiological aspects of GBS in children in the Southwest of Iran. Methods: This was a retrospective study conducted by the Department of Pediatrics of Ahvaz Jundishapur University of Medical Sciences from January 2006 to December 2015. We extracted data from the national database of Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance System. Results: A total of 184 subjects with GBS were assessed. The mean age of subjects was 5.43 ± 4.07 years. The average annual incidence rate of GBS was 1.51 per 100,000 children under 15 years old (95% CI: 1.29-1.73). There was no significant statistical difference in GBS incidence rate between girls and boys (p = 0.376). The highest and lowest proportions of the GBS occurrences were in autumn (32.2%) and summer (14.7%), respectively. Conclusions: The findings indicated that the annual incidence rate of GBS in this study was similar to those in other studies in this area.

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Variants of Guillain-Barré syndrome: low incidence but high impact

Journal of Neurology ◽

10.1007/s00415-009-5253-9 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 256 (11) ◽

pp. 1909-1910 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Helmar C. Lehmann ◽

Hans-Peter Hartung

Keyword(s):

High Impact ◽

Guillain Barre Syndrome ◽

Guillain Barré Syndrome ◽

Low Incidence ◽

Guillain Barré

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Guillain-Barré Syndrome after COVID-19 Vaccination in the Vaccine Safety Datalink

10.1101/2021.12.03.21266419 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Kayla E. Hanson ◽

Kristin Goddard ◽

Ned Lewis ◽

Bruce Fireman ◽

Tanya R. Myers ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Incidence Rate ◽

Interim Analysis ◽

Large Population ◽

Vaccine Safety ◽

The United States ◽

Surveillance Data ◽

Guillain Barre Syndrome ◽

Background Rate ◽

Guillain Barré Syndrome ◽

Guillain Barré

AbstractImportancePost-authorization monitoring of vaccines in a large population can detect rare adverse events not identified in clinical trials including Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). GBS has a background rate of 1-2 per 100,000 person-years.ObjectiveTo 1) describe cases and incidence of GBS following COVID-19 vaccination, and 2) assess the risk of GBS after vaccination for Ad.26.COV2.S (Janssen) and mRNA vaccines.DesignInterim analysis of surveillance data from the Vaccine Safety Datalink.SettingEight participating integrated healthcare systems in the United States.Participants10,158,003 individuals aged ≥12 years.ExposuresReceipt of Ad.26.COV2.S, BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) COVID-19 vaccine.Main Outcomes and MeasuresGBS with symptom onset in the 1-84 days after vaccination as confirmed by medical record review and adjudication. Descriptive characteristics of confirmed cases, GBS incidence rates during postvaccination risk intervals after each type of vaccine compared to the background rate, rate ratios (RRs) comparing GBS incidence in the 1-21 vs. 22-42 days postvaccination, and RRs directly comparing risk of GBS after Ad.26.COV2.S vs. mRNA vaccination, using Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, site, and calendar day.ResultsFrom December 13, 2020 through November 13, 2021, 14,723,318 doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered, including 467,126 Ad.26.COV2.S, 8,573,823 BNT162b2, and 5,682,369 mRNA-1273 doses. Eleven cases of GBS after Ad.26.COV2.S were confirmed. The unadjusted incidence rate of confirmed cases of GBS per 100,000 person-years in the 1-21 days after Ad.26.COV2.S was 34.6 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.8-65.7), significantly higher than the background rate, and the adjusted RR in the 1-21 vs. 22-42 days following Ad.26.COV2.S was 6.03 (95% CI: 0.79-147.79). Thirty-four cases of GBS after mRNA vaccines were confirmed. The unadjusted incidence rate of confirmed cases per 100,000 person-years in the 1-21 days after mRNA vaccines was 1.4 (95% CI: 0.7-2.5) and the adjusted RR in the 1-21 vs. 22-42 days following mRNA vaccines was 0.56 (95% CI: 0.21-1.48). In a head-to-head comparison of Ad.26.COV2.S vs. mRNA vaccines, the adjusted RR was 20.56 (95% CI: 6.94-64.66).Conclusions and RelevanceIn this interim analysis of surveillance data of COVID-19 vaccines, the incidence of GBS was elevated after Ad.26.COV2.S. Surveillance is ongoing.

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