scholarly journals Oil Price Fluctuation, Monetary Policy and Output Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

scholarly journals Monetary Transmission Channel, Oil Price Shock and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-113
Author(s):  
Adeleke Omolade ◽  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Harold Ngalawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector. Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis. Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks. Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.

scholarly journals Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Analysis Under Considering Emergency and Network Search Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (12) ◽  
pp. 2000051
Author(s):  
Wan‐qiang Dai ◽  
Wei Pan ◽  
Yongdong Shi ◽  
Cheng Hu ◽  
Wulin Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Network Search ◽  
Search Data ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

scholarly journals The Dynamics of Oil Prices in the Nigerian Construction and Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Peter Uchenna Okoye ◽  
Evelyn Ndifreke Igbo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

Aims: The continuous reverberation of unstable global oil price change has caused this study to examine the effect of oil price fluctuation on the construction and economic growths in Nigeria. Study Design: Data for the analysis were extracted from different National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publications on the construction sector and economy (GDP); and OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2017 and BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017 on oil price from 1981 to 2016. Place and Duration of Study: The study was done in Nigeria between October 2017 and February 2018. Methodology: The study applied different econometric techniques including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), the generalized least squares (GLS) regression (DF-GLS), and the Phillips-Perron (PP)  for unit root test; Johansen’s cointegration test and Error Correction Model (ECM) for long-run equilibrium relationship; Granger causality test for direction of causation or influence; as well as carrying different validation tests. Results: It was found that oil price fluctuation does not have any causal influence on the construction growth nor economic growth; rather it is only the economic growth that influences the construction growth without feedback. It further revealed the existence of unstable long-run equilibrium contemporaneous relationship between the variables. It showed that the deviation from the equilibrium level in the current year will be corrected by 8.8% in the following year and that it will take about 11 years and 4 months to restore the long-run equilibrium state on the economic growth should there be any shock from the construction growth and oil prices fluctuation in the system. Conclusion: The study concluded that though construction sector and general economy may be sensitive to the oil price change, their growth cannot be said to have been influenced or caused by the fluctuation in oil prices. On this strength, the subsisting oil price position in determining the economic trends in Nigeria is challenged. It then calls for new thoughts and strategies towards monitoring the oil prices and economic growth in Nigeria which may culminate in paying less attention to oil price changes and focusing more on other economic variables that trigger changes in the economy and development of Nigeria.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy of Nigeria, the Core Analysis for Energy Producing Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jelilov Gylych ◽  
Abdullahi Ahmad Jibrin ◽  
Bilal Celik ◽  
Abdurrahman Isik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Level Of Significance ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation ◽  
Empirical Analyses

The study aims to find the short-run empirical analyses of the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument (Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate) in Nigeria. We explored the frequently used Toda–Yamamoto model (TY) model, by adopting the TY Modified Wald (MWALD) test approach to causality, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs).The study covered the period 1995 to 2018 (monthly basis), and our findings from MWALD test indicated that there is a uni-directional causality of the log of oil price (lnoilpr) to log of the exchange rate (lnexchr) at 10% level of significance, also there is a contemporaneous response of log of consumer price index (lncpi) to log of exchange rate (lnexchr) and log of interest rate (lnintr), and jointly (lnoilpr, lncpi and lnintr) granger cause lncpi. Also at 5% level of significance lnintr responded due to positive change in lnoilpr and lnexchr, and jointly causes lnintr at 5% level of significance. This is complimented with our findings in FEVDs, and IRFs. The empirical analyses shows that oil price is a strong determining factor of exchange rate, cost of borrowing and directly influences inflationary or deflationary tendencies in Nigeria..

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