scholarly journals The Dynamics of Oil Prices in the Nigerian Construction and Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Peter Uchenna Okoye ◽  
Evelyn Ndifreke Igbo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

Aims: The continuous reverberation of unstable global oil price change has caused this study to examine the effect of oil price fluctuation on the construction and economic growths in Nigeria. Study Design: Data for the analysis were extracted from different National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publications on the construction sector and economy (GDP); and OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2017 and BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017 on oil price from 1981 to 2016. Place and Duration of Study: The study was done in Nigeria between October 2017 and February 2018. Methodology: The study applied different econometric techniques including the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), the generalized least squares (GLS) regression (DF-GLS), and the Phillips-Perron (PP)  for unit root test; Johansen’s cointegration test and Error Correction Model (ECM) for long-run equilibrium relationship; Granger causality test for direction of causation or influence; as well as carrying different validation tests. Results: It was found that oil price fluctuation does not have any causal influence on the construction growth nor economic growth; rather it is only the economic growth that influences the construction growth without feedback. It further revealed the existence of unstable long-run equilibrium contemporaneous relationship between the variables. It showed that the deviation from the equilibrium level in the current year will be corrected by 8.8% in the following year and that it will take about 11 years and 4 months to restore the long-run equilibrium state on the economic growth should there be any shock from the construction growth and oil prices fluctuation in the system. Conclusion: The study concluded that though construction sector and general economy may be sensitive to the oil price change, their growth cannot be said to have been influenced or caused by the fluctuation in oil prices. On this strength, the subsisting oil price position in determining the economic trends in Nigeria is challenged. It then calls for new thoughts and strategies towards monitoring the oil prices and economic growth in Nigeria which may culminate in paying less attention to oil price changes and focusing more on other economic variables that trigger changes in the economy and development of Nigeria.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Human Development: A Standard Study of Iraq

2018 ◽  
pp. 396-399
Keyword(s):  
Human Development ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Oil Revenues ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

This paper examines the impact of oil price fluctuations on Human development in Iraq. We employed UNDP statistical data in HDI and oil prices were obtained from OPEC official statistics. EGARCH model is applied to estimate the series of oil price fluctuation. Further, we applied ARDL bound test approach to estimate the long run relationship between HDI and oil price fluctuation. Evidence shows that there is a long run relationship among the variables under study. A significant impact on human development index is witness due to fluctuations in oil prices. Since the dependence of Iraqi economy on oil exports tightly align the government spending with oil revenues. Therefore, this study proposes that Government should adopt a diversified policy and invest in other sectors of the economy, such as the industrial sectors. Investment in these sectors will help to increase the output of exportable goods. Exports of these goods can earn more foreign exchange. This will reduce the heavy reliance on oil revenues. The government needs to spend more money to provide infrastructure like transport facilities and stable electricity supply. This will help encourage private companies to invest more in their economic resources by reducing the cost of doing business.

scholarly journals Oil price Fluctuation, Gold Returns and Inflationary Pressure: An Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan Naser
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Inflationary Pressure ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

Given that oil and gold prices are the major representative for commodity market, they both play a crucial role in determining the level of consumption, industrial production and investment due to the direct effect by the changes in their prices. In addition, both oil and gold prices have inflationary pressure which has a direct impact on countries economic growth. Therefore, it is of crucial practical significance to analyze their cointrgration relationships to understand the co-movement of both prices. To do so, this paper aims to examine the impact of oil price fluctuation on gold prices taking into account the inflationary pressure in the United States (US). Using monthly data from April, 1986 to September, 2018, Johansen multivariate cointegration test procedure and vector error correction model (VECM) have been employed to examine the long-run relationship between the variables in the US. The key findings suggest that there is a significant positive long run relationship between crude oil prices, gold prices and inflation. In the short run, the impact of any changes in crude oil prices will have a delayed effect on the prices of gold, while the impact of inflation in not different from zero. In addition, both gold prices and inflation are found to have no impact on gold prices in the short run. The findings of this research are important for investors, portfolio managers, corporate houses, crude oil traders, the government and policy makers.

scholarly journals Do High Oil Prices Obstruct the Transition to Renewable Energy Consumption?

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 4689 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Jeyhun I. Mikayilov ◽  
Sugra Humbatova ◽  
Vugar Muradov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

The study analyzes the impact of economic growth, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and oil price on renewable energy consumption in Azerbaijan for the data spanning from 1992 to 2015, utilizing structural time series modeling approach. Estimation results reveal that there is a long-run positive and statistically significant effect of economic growth on renewable energy consumption and a negative impact of oil price in the case of Azerbaijan, for the studied period. The negative impact of oil price on renewable energy consumption can be seen as an indication of comfort brought by the environment of higher oil prices, which delays the transition from conventional energy sources to renewable energy consumption for the studied country case. Also, we find that the effect of CO2 on renewable energy consumption is negative but statistically insignificant. The results of this article might be beneficial for policymakers and support the current literature for further research for oil-rich developing countries.

scholarly journals Impact of FDI inflow, crude oil prices, and economic growth on CO2 emission in Tunisia: Symmetric and asymmetric analysis through ARDL and NARDL approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Tarek Ghazouani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric impact of real GDP per capita, FDI inflow, and crude oil price on CO2 emission in Tunisia for the 1972–2016 period. Using the cointegration tests, namely ARDL and NARDL bound test, the results show that the variables are associated in a long run relationship. Long run estimates from both approach confirms the validity of ECK hypothesis for Tunisia. Symmetric analysis reveals that economic growth and the price of crude oil adversely affect the environment, in contrast to FDI inflows that reduce CO2 emissions in the long run. Whereas the asymmetric analysis show that increase in crude oil price harm the environment and decrease in crude oil price have positive repercussions on the environment. The causality analysis suggests that a bilateral link exists between economic growth and carbon emissions and a one-way causality ranges from FDI inflows and crude oil prices to carbon emissions. Thus, some policy recommendations have been formulated to help Tunisia reduce carbon emissions and support economic development.

scholarly journals Oil Price Flux and Macroeconomy of Oil Exporters

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 651-667
Author(s):  
Madiha Riaz ◽  
Saeed-ur-Rahman ◽  
Shahzad Mushtaq ◽  
Aabeera Atta
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Strong Relation ◽  
Highly Correlated

Oil is an important energy source, embodies the largest commodity market in the world. Global economic performance has been highly correlated with oil price changes. The study considered 10 major oil exporters to measure the effect of oil price changes on their economies considering variables: Oil Prices (OP), Inflation (CPI) , GDP deflator, Lending interest rate (IR), real interest rate (RIR), Official Exchange Rate (EX), and Net domestic credit (LDU).  By applying Johansen Co-integration techniques, long run relationship among variables has been analyzed covering the time period from 1970 to 2019. In order to find the short run relationship, Error Correction Model (ECM) technique is used. Study affirmed that there exist a strong relation among economic variables and oil price fluctuations; however the intensity of relationship displays a variation. Oil prices are associated with GDP deflator and RIR significantly as compared to other variables. Moreover, it can be suggested that each country should observe it own economic strategy in response to price change to reflect on economic policy instead of following some other country trends.

scholarly journals Examination Of The Relationship Between Oil Price Shock And Macroeconomic Variables In Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-110
Author(s):  
Abayomi Awujola ◽  
Anna Dyaji Baba Iyakwar ◽  
Ropheka Emerson Bot
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Determination Coefficient ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Watson Statistic ◽  
The Relationship

The price of oil is one of the important macroeconomic indicators because of the extreme importance of supplying oil to different countries of the world to meet their energy needs. As Nigeria’s economy depends on oil prices, the country remains vulnerable to fluctuations in world oil prices. During periods of rising oil prices caused by macroeconomic and political conditions in the international market, the state usually has a positive trade balance, there is an increase in foreign exchange reserves and the revaluation of the national currency. The purpose of the article is to evaluate the relationship between an oil price change and Nigeria’s economic growth rate using regression analysis. The source of statistical information is data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, and the Nigerian Energy Commission. By checking the time series for steady-state using the advanced Dickie-Fuller test, a regression equation is constructed where the dependent variable is represented as the price of oil and the independent variables are key macroeconomic indicators. The econometric model constructed is adequate because the determination coefficient and the adjusted determination coefficient are 0.97 and 0.96 respectively. The Durbin-Watson statistic in the model is 1.98, meaning the model is reliable. Oil price fluctuations have been found to be related to investment, economic growth, and exchange rates, as well as to inflation. The paper argues that the use of the shock of oil prices should be supported, as it promotes economic growth and is not inflationary. Therefore, the authors believe that the government, which is the main beneficiary of cash, should also implement strategies that counterbalance the propensity for the economic downturn. Based on the analysis, a set of priority measures was proposed: enhancing financial liberalization, combating corruption, transparency of government activities, creating an open currency market, and developing non-inflationary monetary and fiscal strategies. Keywords: oil price, macroeconomic variables, energy needs, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Dickie-Fuller Extended Test, Petroleum Exporters.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of the Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 19 ◽  
pp. 462-473
Author(s):  
Mayis G. Gülaliyev ◽  
Rahima N. Nuraliyeva ◽  
Ruhiyya A. Huseynova ◽  
Firudin E. Hatamov ◽  
Alikhanli S. Yegana ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Arab Countries ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Impact

The role of oil and gas in the modern economy is undeniable. That is why oil-exported countries have a good chance to wealth. But if the economy doesn't have diversification or there is no political stability this revenue cannot become welfare for the long run. As well as the changing of oil prices doe in the world market can impact the revenues of oil-exported countries. The purpose of the research – to assess the impact of the oil price shocks on economic growth in oil-exporting Arab countries. As a methodology, there were chosen VAR models and Granger causality tests. The practical importance of the research is to predict economic growth in other oil-exporting countries. The authors came to the conclusion that oil-price change has positive impacts on GDP growth in oil-rich Arab countries and there is the strong dependency from oil prices. The originality and scientific novelty of the research connected with this argue that oil revenues have impacts on economic growth only in economic and political stability.

scholarly journals Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4465
Author(s):  
Jiaying Peng ◽  
Zhenghui Li ◽  
Benjamin M. Drakeford
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Influence Mechanism ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

The uncertainty in the evolution of crude oil price fluctuation has a significant impact on economic stability. Based on the decomposition of crude oil price fluctuation by the state-space model, this paper studies the fluctuation trend of crude oil prices and its causes. The nonlinearity autoregressive distribute lag approach (NARDL) model is used to capture the influence mechanism characteristics of crude oil prices at different positions and different fluctuation trends. An event study model with dummy variables is constructed to compare the effects of different types of events on crude oil price fluctuations. The empirical results indicate that the fluctuation of crude oil prices tends to strengthen on the whole, and there is a remarkable correlation between this trend and the influencing mechanism of crude oil price, namely, the fluctuation source structure. The influence mechanism of crude oil price fluctuation is asymmetric when the crude oil price is at different positions and under different trends. There is a strong correlation between event shocks and event types in the evolution of crude oil price fluctuation.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

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