Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Emission Trading on Social and Economic Development under the Change of International Oil Price

The drastic fluctuation of international oil price has a great impact on social and economic development. It is of great significance for social and economic development to analyze the impact of carbon emissions trading under the fluctuation of international oil price on social and economic development. Johansen test and state space model are used to study the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on carbon market price change and yield. VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition are used to explore the impact of carbon emissions trading on energy price and consumer price index fluctuation, so as to analyze the social and economic development of carbon emissions trading under international oil price fluctuation. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between international oil price and carbon price, and the spillover of international oil price to carbon market and yield shows that oil price can lead to the change of carbon price, but because of the change of EU energy consumption structure and the continuous improvement of carbon trading mechanism, the spillover effect shows a downward trend. The fluctuation of carbon trading price under the change of international oil price constitutes energy. Source price fluctuation causes, but the impact on consumer price index (CPI) is small, which does not constitute the cause of affecting social and economic development. The carbon price has little impact on domestic oil price fluctuation, and has a positive effect.

CRUDE OIL PRICE VOLATILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: MEDIATING ROLE OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

This study examines the correlation between oil price fluctuation and absolute business development in Pakistan. Our study focusses on three economic sectors, agriculture and livestock, manufacturing and electricity production and transportation from 1980 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag, with linear regression to evaluate the (time series or panel) data (please elaborate the frequency of data as well either it is daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly data). Our findings reveal negative impact of oil price on the economic development overall, and manufacturing, electricity production and livestock sectors individually; while, there is positive relationship observed with communication and transport sectors. There is need for policymaker’s attention on highly oil-dependent sectors to run their operations. Empirical findings suggest a 30% shortage of oil supply responsible for the highest fluctuated structure of oil pricing, which suddenly increases the projected welfare loss through a 40% reduction in gross domestic product. This study suggests that the country should maintain a minimum 100-day strategic petroleum reserves to hedge any adverse effect of oil price fluctuation on economic and social welfare losses.

Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy of Nigeria, the Core Analysis for Energy Producing Countries

The study aims to find the short-run empirical analyses of the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument (Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate) in Nigeria. We explored the frequently used Toda–Yamamoto model (TY) model, by adopting the TY Modified Wald (MWALD) test approach to causality, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs).The study covered the period 1995 to 2018 (monthly basis), and our findings from MWALD test indicated that there is a uni-directional causality of the log of oil price (lnoilpr) to log of the exchange rate (lnexchr) at 10% level of significance, also there is a contemporaneous response of log of consumer price index (lncpi) to log of exchange rate (lnexchr) and log of interest rate (lnintr), and jointly (lnoilpr, lncpi and lnintr) granger cause lncpi. Also at 5% level of significance lnintr responded due to positive change in lnoilpr and lnexchr, and jointly causes lnintr at 5% level of significance. This is complimented with our findings in FEVDs, and IRFs. The empirical analyses shows that oil price is a strong determining factor of exchange rate, cost of borrowing and directly influences inflationary or deflationary tendencies in Nigeria..