scholarly journals Crude Oil Price Fluctuation Analysis Under Considering Emergency and Network Search Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (12) ◽  
pp. 2000051
Author(s):  
Wan‐qiang Dai ◽  
Wei Pan ◽  
Yongdong Shi ◽  
Cheng Hu ◽  
Wulin Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Fluctuation Analysis ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Network Search ◽  
Search Data ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

scholarly journals Research on the Time-Varying Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Crude Oil Price Fluctuation

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (16) ◽  
pp. 6523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanhong Feng ◽  
Dilong Xu ◽  
Pierre Failler ◽  
Tinghui Li
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

Due to multiple properties, the international crude oil price is influenced by various and complex interrelated factors from different determinants in different periods. However, the previous studies on crude oil price fluctuation with economic policy uncertainty (EPU) haven’t taken a wider range of volatility sources into their analysis frameworks. In this paper, the time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model is introduced in order to avoid important information loss, as well as capture the time-varying impact on crude oil price fluctuation by EPU. Furthermore, the differences on crude oil fluctuations from net-oil exporting and net-oil importing country’s EPU are also elaborated. Here are three findings as follows. First, the impacts of global EPU on the crude oil price volatility show time-varying characteristics both in time duration and time-points. Second, the instantaneous impacts of global EPU on the price volatility of crude oil are directly relevant to major events, and the impacts are different in event types as well. Third, the time-varying characteristics depicting the impacts of EPU in countries who are net-oil exporter and net-oil importer on price volatility of crude oil show heterogeneity in fluctuation range, fluctuation intensity, and stage.

scholarly journals Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (17) ◽  
pp. 4465
Author(s):  
Jiaying Peng ◽  
Zhenghui Li ◽  
Benjamin M. Drakeford
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
State Space Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Influence Mechanism ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

The uncertainty in the evolution of crude oil price fluctuation has a significant impact on economic stability. Based on the decomposition of crude oil price fluctuation by the state-space model, this paper studies the fluctuation trend of crude oil prices and its causes. The nonlinearity autoregressive distribute lag approach (NARDL) model is used to capture the influence mechanism characteristics of crude oil prices at different positions and different fluctuation trends. An event study model with dummy variables is constructed to compare the effects of different types of events on crude oil price fluctuations. The empirical results indicate that the fluctuation of crude oil prices tends to strengthen on the whole, and there is a remarkable correlation between this trend and the influencing mechanism of crude oil price, namely, the fluctuation source structure. The influence mechanism of crude oil price fluctuation is asymmetric when the crude oil price is at different positions and under different trends. There is a strong correlation between event shocks and event types in the evolution of crude oil price fluctuation.

The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies

2018 ◽  
Vol 95 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 227-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Qiang ◽  
Aimei Lin ◽  
Chao Zhao ◽  
Zhenhua Liu ◽  
Manzhi Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation
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