scholarly journals FLOOD FREQUENCY ESTIMATION UNCERTAINTY IN DESIGN PRACTICE: CASE STUDY OF SREMSKA MITROVICA, SAVA RIVER

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nina Kondić
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Sample Length ◽  
Estimation Uncertainty ◽  
Two Samples ◽  
Sava River ◽  
Optimum Cost ◽  
Uncertainty In Design

Flood frequency estimation is one of the most important tasks for hydraulic engineers. Design of hydraulic structures and systems require reliable estimates of high waters, which is not always easy to deliver. In this paper, uncertainty of flood frequency estimation common in practical use is presented in the case study of the Sava River at the Sremska Mitrovica hydrological station. Time series of 42 years daily flow records are statistically analysed on two samples, comprising annual maxima (AM), and peaks over threshold (POT). For uncertainty assessment, samples are analysed for several different scenarios, i.e. varying AM sample length as well as threshold flow for POT. Results indicate large uncertainty of flood frequency estimates, especially in the domen of low probabilities, as well as problem of adopting final value for practical use that will provide safety and optimum cost of the structures.

Intercomparison of regional flood frequency estimation methods at ungauged sites for a Mexican case study

2008 ◽  
Vol 348 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 40-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
T.B.M.J. Ouarda ◽  
K.M. Bâ ◽  
C. Diaz-Delgado ◽  
A. Cârsteanu ◽  
K. Chokmani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Ungauged Sites ◽  
Regional Flood Frequency

scholarly journals A framework for assessing flood frequency based on climate projection information

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2119-2136 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. A. Raff ◽  
T. Pruitt ◽  
L. D. Brekke
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
James River ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
San Joaquin River ◽  
Core Elements ◽  
Temporal Disaggregation

Abstract. Flood safety is of the utmost concern for water resources management agencies charged with operating and maintaining reservoir systems. Risk evaluations guide design of infrastructure alterations or lead to potential changes in operations. Changes in climate may change the risk due to floods and therefore decisions to alter infrastructure with a life span of decades or longer may benefit from the use of climate projections as opposed to use of only historical observations. This manuscript presents a set of methods meant to support flood frequency evaluation based on current downscaled climate projections and the potential implications of changing flood risk on how evaluations are made. Methods are demonstrated in four case study basins: the Boise River above Lucky Peak Dam, the San Joaquin River above Friant Dam, the James River above Jamestown Dam, and the Gunnison River above Blue Mesa Dam. The analytical design includes three core elements: (1) a rationale for selecting climate projections to represent available climate projections; (2) generation of runoff projections consistent with climate projections using a process-based hydrologic model and temporal disaggregation of monthly downscaled climate projections into 6-h weather forcings required by the hydrologic model; and (3) analysis of flood frequency distributions based on runoff projection results. In addition to demonstrating the methodology, this paper also presents method choices under each analytical element, and the resulting implications to how flood frequencies are evaluated. The methods used reproduce the antecedent calibration period well. The approach results in a unidirectional shift in modeled flood magnitudes. The comparison between an expanding retrospective (current paradigm for flood frequency estimation) and a lookahead flood frequency approach indicate potential for significant biases in flood frequency estimation.

scholarly journals Exploring the Feasibility of Comprehensive Uncertainty Assessment in Health Economic Modeling: A Case Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svenja Petersohn ◽  
Sabine E. Grimm ◽  
Bram L.T. Ramaekers ◽  
Arina J. ten Cate-Hoek ◽  
Manuela A. Joore
Keyword(s):  
Health Economic ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Economic Modeling

Application de la fonction bêta et des polynômes de Jacobi à l'analyse des valeurs extrêmes

1994 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1074-1080 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Llamas ◽  
C. Diaz Delgado ◽  
M.-L. Lavertu
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Estimation ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Beta Function ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Flood Probability ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

In this paper, an improved probabilistic method for flood analysis using the probable maximum flood, the beta function, and orthogonal Jacobi’s polynomials is proposed. The shape of the beta function depends on the sample's characteristics and the bounds of the phenomenon. On the other hand, a serial of Jacobi’s polynomials has been used improving the beta function and increasing its convergence degree toward the real flood probability density function. This mathematical model has been tested using a sample of 1000 generated beta random data. Finally, some practical applications with real data series, from important Quebec's rivers, have been performed; the model solutions for these rivers showed the accuracy of this new method in flood frequency estimation. Key words: probable maximum flood, beta function, orthogonal polynomials, distribution function, flood frequency estimation, data generation, convergency.

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