scholarly journals Peer Review #1 of "Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017 (v0.1)"

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Peer Review ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Refugee Camp ◽  
Uncertainty And Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

scholarly journals Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017

PeerJ ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. e4583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryota Matsuyama ◽  
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov ◽  
Akira Endo ◽  
Hyojung Lee ◽  
Takayuki Yamaguchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Refugee Camp ◽  
Background Information ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

BackgroundA Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number,R0.MethodsA renewal process model was devised to estimate theR0and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method.ResultsR0ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2.R0was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated thatR0would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time.DiscussionEstimatedR0was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified.

scholarly journals Mapping the basic reproduction number (R0) for vector-borne diseases: A case study on bluetongue virus

Epidemics ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 153-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.A. Hartemink ◽  
B.V. Purse ◽  
R. Meiswinkel ◽  
H.E. Brown ◽  
A. de Koeijer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Bluetongue Virus ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Vector Borne ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

scholarly journals Rich Dynamics of a Brucellosis Model with Transport

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Juan Liang ◽  
Zhirong Zhao ◽  
Can Li
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Great Influence ◽  
Stable State ◽  
Initial Values ◽  
Si Model ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Brucellosis is one of the major infectious diseases in China. In this study, we consider an SI model of animal brucellosis with transport. The basic reproduction number ℛ0 is obtained, and the stable state of the equilibria is analyzed. Numerical simulation shows that different initial values have a great influence on results of the model. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of ℛ0 with respect to different parameters is analyzed. The results reveal that the transport has dual effects. Specifically, transport can lead to increase in the number of infected animals; besides, transport can also reduce the number of infected animals in a certain range. The analysis shows that the number of infected animals can be controlled if animals are transported reasonably.

scholarly journals Mathematical Model Analysis and Simulation of Visceral Leishmaniasis, Kashgar, Xinjiang, 2004–2016

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yateng Song ◽  
Tailei Zhang ◽  
Hui Li ◽  
Kai Wang ◽  
Xiaobo Lu
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Parasite Infection ◽  
Parasitic Disease ◽  
Kala Azar ◽  
Si Model ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Kashgar Prefecture

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), known as kala-azar, is a serious parasitic disease. After malaria, VL is the second largest parasitic killer. This paper focuses on the VL transmission around sandflies, dogs, and people. Kashgar is located on the southwestern edge of Xinjiang, where kala-azar parasite infection occurs every year. According to the cases reported in the Kashgar Prefecture from 2004 to 2016, we proposed a dynamic model based on these three populations. The SEIR model was established for human population, the SI model was established for sandfly population, and the SI model was established for dog population. We fitted the model to cumulative cases from 2004 to 2016 for the epidemic in Kashgar and predicted that the cumulative incidence of kala-azar in Kashgar would continue to increase, but its growth rate would gradually slow down, which means that the number of cases would gradually decrease every year. We also estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.49–1.93). The sensitivity analysis shows that the mutual infection between sandfly and dog contributes the most to the basic reproduction number, while the transmission proportion of sandfly to the susceptible person and the mutual infection between sandfly and dog contribute the most to the number of leishmaniasis human cases. Therefore, according to the sensitivity analysis results, reducing the contact between sandflies and dogs is an effective way to reduce kala-azar.

scholarly journals A two-sex model of human papillomavirus infection: Vaccination strategies and a case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shasha Gao ◽  
Maia Martcheva ◽  
Hongyu Miao ◽  
Libin Rong
Keyword(s):  
Human Papillomavirus ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Hpv Infection ◽  
Fixed Amount ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Vaccination is effective in preventing human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. It still remains debatable whether males should be included in a vaccination program and unclear how to allocate the vaccine in genders to achieve the maximum benefits. In this paper, we use a two-sex model to assess HPV vaccination strategies and use the data from Guangxi Province in China as a case study. Both mathematical analysis and numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number, an important indicator of the transmission potential of the infection, achieves its minimum when the priority of vaccination is given to the gender with a smaller recruit rate. Given a fixed amount of vaccine, splitting the vaccine evenly usually leads to a larger basic reproduction number and a higher prevalence of infection. Vaccination becomes less effective in reducing the infection once the vaccine amount exceeds the smaller recruit rate of the two genders. In the case study, we estimate the basic reproduction number is 1.0333 for HPV 16/18 in people aged 15-55. The minimal bivalent HPV vaccine needed for the disease prevalence to be below 0.05% is 24050 per year, which should be given to females. However, with this vaccination strategy it would require a very long time and a large amount of vaccine to achieve the goal. In contrast with allocating the same vaccine amount every year, we find that a variable vaccination strategy with more vaccine given in the beginning followed by less vaccine in later years can save time and total vaccine amount. The variable vaccination strategy illustrated in this study can help to better distribute the vaccine to reduce the HPV prevalence. Although this work is for HPV infection and the case study is for a province in China, the model, analysis and conclusions may be applicable to other sexually transmitted diseases in other regions or countries.

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