scholarly journals Peer Review #1 of "Rethinking the lake trophic state index (v0.1)"

Author(s):  
Farnaz Nojavan ◽  
Betty J Kreakie ◽  
Jeffrey W Hollister ◽  
Song Qian

Lake trophic state indices have long been used to provide a measure of the trophic state of lakes. Over time it has been determined that these indices perform better when they utilize multiple metrics and provide a continuous measurement of trophic state. We utilize such a method for trophic state that is based upon a Proportional Odds Logistic Regression (POLR) model and extend this model with a Bayesian multilevel model that predicts nutrient concentrations from universally available GIS data. This Bayesian multilevel model provides relatively accurate measures of trophic state and has an overall accuracy of 60%. The approach illustrates a method for estimating a continuous, mutli-metric trophic state index for any lake in the United States. Future improvements to the model will focus on improving overall accuracy and use variables that are more sensitive to change over time.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farnaz Nojavan A. ◽  
Betty J Kreakie ◽  
Jeffrey W Hollister ◽  
Song S Qian

Lake trophic state classifications provide information about the condition of lentic ecosystems and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., clean water, recreational opportunities, and aesthetics) and disservices (e.g., cyanobacteria blooms). The current classification schemes have been criticized for developing indices that are single-variable based (vs. a complex aggregate of multi-variables), discrete (vs. a continuum), and/or deterministic (vs. an inherent randomness). We present an updated lake trophic classification model using a Bayesian multilevel ordered categorical regression. The model consists of a proportional odds logistic regression (POLR) that models ordered, categorical, lake trophic state using Secchi disk depth, elevation, nitrogen concentration (N), and phosphorus concentration (P). The overall accuracy, when compared to existing classifications of trophic state index (TSI), for the POLR model was 0.68 and the balanced accuracy ranged between 0.72 and 0.93. This work delivers an index that is multi-variable based, continuous, and classifies lakes in probabilistic terms. While our model addresses all the limitations of the current approach to lake trophic classification, the addition of uncertainty quantification is important, because the trophic state response to predictors varies among lakes. Our model successfully addresses concerns with the current approach and performs well across trophic states in a large spatial extent.


Author(s):  
Farnaz Nojavan A. ◽  
Betty J Kreakie ◽  
Jeffrey W Hollister ◽  
Song S Qian

Lake trophic state classifications provide information about the condition of lentic ecosystems and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., clean water, recreational opportunities, and aesthetics) and disservices (e.g., cyanobacteria blooms). The current classification schemes have been criticized for developing indices that are single-variable based (vs. a complex aggregate of multi-variables), discrete (vs. a continuum), and/or deterministic (vs. an inherent randomness). We present an updated lake trophic classification model using a Bayesian multilevel ordered categorical regression. The model consists of a proportional odds logistic regression (POLR) that models ordered, categorical, lake trophic state using Secchi disk depth, elevation, nitrogen concentration (N), and phosphorus concentration (P). The overall accuracy, when compared to existing classifications of trophic state index (TSI), for the POLR model was 0.68 and the balanced accuracy ranged between 0.72 and 0.93. This work delivers an index that is multi-variable based, continuous, and classifies lakes in probabilistic terms. While our model addresses all the limitations of the current approach to lake trophic classification, the addition of uncertainty quantification is important, because the trophic state response to predictors varies among lakes. Our model successfully addresses concerns with the current approach and performs well across trophic states in a large spatial extent.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farnaz Nojavan ◽  
Betty J Kreakie ◽  
Jeffrey W Hollister ◽  
Song Qian

Lake trophic state indices have long been used to provide a measure of the trophic state of lakes. Over time it has been determined that these indices perform better when they utilize multiple metrics and provide a continuous measurement of trophic state. We utilize such a method for trophic state that is based upon a Proportional Odds Logistic Regression (POLR) model and extend this model with a Bayesian multilevel model that predicts nutrient concentrations from universally available GIS data. This Bayesian multilevel model provides relatively accurate measures of trophic state and has an overall accuracy of 60%. The approach illustrates a method for estimating a continuous, mutli-metric trophic state index for any lake in the United States. Future improvements to the model will focus on improving overall accuracy and use variables that are more sensitive to change over time.


PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e7936 ◽  
Author(s):  
Farnaz Nojavan A. ◽  
Betty J. Kreakie ◽  
Jeffrey W. Hollister ◽  
Song S. Qian

Lake trophic state classifications provide information about the condition of lentic ecosystems and are indicative of both ecosystem services (e.g., clean water, recreational opportunities, and aesthetics) and disservices (e.g., cyanobacteria blooms). The current classification schemes have been criticized for developing indices that are single-variable based (vs. a complex aggregate of multi-variables), discrete (vs. a continuous), and/or deterministic (vs. an inherently random). We present an updated lake trophic classification model using a Bayesian multilevel ordered categorical regression. The model consists of a proportional odds logistic regression (POLR) that models ordered, categorical, lake trophic state using Secchi disk depth, elevation, nitrogen concentration (N), and phosphorus concentration (P). The overall accuracy, when compared to existing classifications of trophic state index (TSI), for the POLR model was 0.68 and the balanced accuracy ranged between 0.72 and 0.93. This work delivers an index that is multi-variable based, continuous, and classifies lakes in probabilistic terms. While our model addresses aforementioned limitations of the current approach to lake trophic classification, the addition of uncertainty quantification is important, because the trophic state response to predictors varies among lakes. Our model successfully addresses concerns with the current approach and performs well across trophic states in a large spatial extent.


2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Kusuma Wardani Laksitaningrum ◽  
Wirastuti Widyatmanti

<p align="center"><strong>ABSTRAK</strong></p><p class="abstrak">Waduk Gajah Mungkur (WGM) adalah bendungan buatan yang memiliki luas genangan maksimum 8800 ha, terletak di Desa Pokoh Kidul, Kecamatan Wonogiri, Kabupaten Wonogiri. Kondisi perairan WGM dipengaruhi oleh faktor klimatologis, fisik, dan aktivitas manusia yang dapat menyumbang nutrisi sehingga mempengaruhi status trofiknya. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah mengkaji kemampuan citra Landsat 8 OLI untuk memperoleh parameter-parameter yang digunakan untuk menilai status trofik, menentukan dan memetakan status trofik yang diperoleh dari citra Landsat 8 OLI, dan mengevaluasi hasil pemetaan dan manfaat citra penginderaan jauh untuk identifikasi status trofik WGM. Identifikasi status trofik dilakukan berdasarkan metode <em>Trophic State Index</em> (TSI) Carlson (1997) menggunakan tiga parameter yaitu kejernihan air, total fosfor, dan klorofil-a. Model yang diperoleh berdasar pada rumus empiris dari hasil uji regresi antara pengukuran di lapangan dan nilai piksel di citra Landsat 8 OLI. Model dipilih berdasarkan nilai koefisien determinasi (R<sup>2</sup>) tertinggi. Hasil penelitian merepresentasikan bahwa nilai R<sup>2</sup> kejernihan air sebesar 0,813, total fosfor sebesar 0,268, dan klorofil-a sebesar 0,584. Apabila nilai R<sup>2 </sup>mendekati 1, maka semakin baik model regresi dapat menjelaskan suatu parameter status trofik. Berdasarkan hasil kalkulasi diperoleh distribusi yang terdiri dari kelas eutrofik ringan, eutrofik sedang, dan eutrofik berat yaitu pada rentang nilai indeks 50,051 – 80,180. Distribusi terbesar adalah eutrofik sedang. Hal tersebut menunjukkan tingkat kesuburan perairan yang tinggi dan dapat membahayakan makhluk hidup lain.</p><p><strong>Kata kunci: </strong>Waduk Gajah Mungkur, citra Landsat 8 OLI, regresi, TSI, status trofik</p><p class="judulABS"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p class="Abstrakeng">Gajah Mungkur Reservoir is an artificial dam that has a maximum inundated areas of 8800 ha, located in Pokoh Kidul Village, Wonogiri Regency. The reservoir’s water conditions are affected by climatological and physical factors, as well as human activities that can contribute to nutrients that affect its trophic state. This study aimed to assess the Landsat 8 OLI capabilities to obtain parameters that are used to determine its trophic state, identifying and mapping the trophic state based on parameters derived from Landsat 8 OLI, and evaluating the results of the mapping and the benefits of remote sensing imagery for identification of its trophic state. Identification of trophic state is based on Trophic State Index (TSI) Carlson (1997), which uses three parameters there are water clarity, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll-a. The model is based on an empirical formula of regression between measurements in the field and the pixel values in Landsat 8 OLI. Model is selected on the highest value towards coefficient of determination (R<sup>2</sup>). The results represented that R<sup>2</sup> of water clarity is 0.813, total phosphorus is 0.268, and chlorophyll-a is 0.584. If R<sup>2</sup> close to 1, regression model will describe the parameters of the trophic state better. Based on the calculation the distribution consists of mild eutrophic, moderate eutrophic, and heavy eutrophic that has index values from 50.051 to 80.18. The most distribution is moderate eutrophication, and it showed the high level of trophic state and may harm other living beings.</p><p><strong><em>Keywords: </em></strong><em>Gajah Mungkur Reservoir, </em><em>L</em><em>andsat 8 OLI satellite imagery, regression, TSI, trophic state</em></p>


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