In this paper, a many-objective optimization algorithm was developed using SPEA2 for a system of four reservoirs in the Karun basin, including hydropower, municipal and industrial, agricultural, and environmental objectives. For this purpose, using 53 years of available data, hedging rules were developed in two modes: with and without applying fuzzy logic. SPEA2 was used to optimize hedging coefficients using the first 43 years of data and the last 10 years of data were used to test the optimized rule curves. The results were compared with those of non-hedging methods, including the standard operating procedures (SOP) and water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model. The results indicate that the combination of fuzzy logic and hedging rules in a many-objectives system is more efficient than the discrete hedging rule alone. For instance, the reliability of the hydropower requirement in the fuzzified discrete hedging method in a drought scenario was found to be 0.68, which is substantially higher than the 0.52 from the discrete hedging method. Moreover, reduction of the maximum monthly shortage is another advantage of this rule. Fuzzy logic reduced 118 million cubic meters (MCM) of deficit in the Karun-3 reservoir alone. Moreover, as expected, the non-hedging SOP and WEAP model produced higher reliabilities, lower average storages, and less water losses through spills.
Investigation of Forecast Accuracy and its Impact on the Efficiency of Data-Driven Forecast-Based Reservoir Operating Rules
