Firm’s Credit Risk in the Presence of Market Structural Breaks

The financial crises which occurred in the last several decades have demonstrated the significant impact of market structural breaks on firms’ credit behavior. To incorporate the impact of market structural break into the analysis of firms’ credit rating transitions and firms’ asset structure, we develop a continuous-time modulated Markov model for firms’ credit rating transitions with unobserved market structural breaks. The model takes a semi-parametric multiplicative regression form, in which the effects of firms’ observable covariates and macroeconomic variables are represented parametrically and nonparametrically, respectively, and the frailty effects of unobserved firm-specific and market-wide variables are incorporated via the integration form of the model assumption. We further develop a mixtured-estimating-equation approach to make inference on the effect of market variations, baseline intensities of all firms’ credit rating transitions, and rating transition intensities for each individual firm. We then use the developed model and inference procedure to analyze the monthly credit rating of U.S. firms from January 1986 to December 2012, and study the effect of market structural breaks on firms’ credit rating transitions.

National Culture and Corporate Rating Migrations

The informal constraints that arise from the national culture in which a firm resides have a pervasive impact on managerial decision making and corporate credit risk, which in turn impacts on corporate ratings and rating changes. In some cultures, firms are naturally predisposed to rating changes in a particular direction (downgrade or upgrade) while, in other cultures, firms are more likely to migrate from the current rating in either direction. This study employs a survival analysis framework to examine the effect of national culture on the probability of rating transitions of 5360 firms across 50 countries over the period 1985–2010. Firms located in long-term oriented cultures are less likely to be downgraded and, in some cases, more likely to be upgraded. Downgrades occur more often in strong uncertainty-avoiding countries and less often in large power distance (hierarchy) and embeddedness countries. There is some evidence that masculinity predisposes firms to more rating transitions. Studying culture helps enrich our understanding of corporate rating migrations, and helps develop predictive models of corporate rating changes across countries.

Firm's Credit Risk in the Presence of Market Structural Breaks

Various sudden shifts in financial market conditions over the past decades have demonstrated the significant impact of market structural breaks on firms' credit behavior. To characterize such effect quantitatively, we develop a continuous-time modulated Markov model for firms' credit rating transitions with the possibility of market structural breaks. The model takes a semi-parametric multiplicative regression form, in which the effects of firms' observable covariates and macroeconomic variables are represented parametrically and nonparametrically, respectively, and the frailty effects of unobserved firm-specific and market-wide variables are incorporated via the integration form of the model assumption. We further develop a mixtured-estimating-equation approach to make inference on the effect of market variations, baseline intensities of all firms' credit rating transitions, and rating transition intensities for each individual firm. We then use the developed model and inference procedure to analyze the monthly credit rating of U.S. firms from January 1986 to December 2012, and study the effect of market structural breaks on firms' credit rating transitions.

Credit rating process

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze which key financial factors are appropriate for measuring a credit rating score for family firms. In the recent literature, there exists a vast number of studies which evaluates performance differences between family and non-family firms (NFF). However an analysis with regards to a distinction between credit rating scores of family-orientated businesses compared to their counterparts in Austria has not been examined so far. Design/methodology/approach In order to bridge this research gap, an empirical model based on Moody’s credit rating methodology is used to address these issues. Therefore, the relevant data were taken from the 600 largest, both listed and non-listed, companies of Austria. The statistical measurements refer to a comparison of the means resulting from quantitative rating categories (profitability, leverage structure, liquidity development and firm size). Findings The results of this empirical research show that family firms achieve better values in profitability, leverage structure and liquidity development based on credit rating scores. Only firm size represents no significant differences between family and NFF. Originality/value This study will contribute to the existing literature in the academic area of family business research and offers a framework for future empirical analysis in this field. Furthermore, this paper provides important information that will help both family and NFF accomplish their financial strategies related to credit rating transitions.