The Trade-Comovement Puzzle

Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that while (i) and (ii) fall short of the data, (iii) goes a long way toward resolving the puzzle. (JEL E32, F14, F44)

Credit-Market Imperfection and Monetary Policy Within DSGE Models

This survey presented the various ways that are utilized in the literature to include financial market frictions in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. It focuses on the fundamental issue: to what extent the Taylor rules are optimal when the central bank introduces the goal of financial stability. Indeed, the latest financial crisis shows that the vulnerability of the credit cycle is considered the main source for the amplification of a small transitory shock. This conclusion changed the instrument that drives the transmission of monetary policy through the economy and pushed the policymakers to include financial stability as a second objective of the central bank.

Discussion on Inflation Target Optimality

The article focuses on the existing gap between theoretically optimal (often close to zero) and empirically observed (targeted by central banks, explicitly positive) rate of inflation. In order to reduce this gap, the article proposes some theoretical explanations of a positive rate of optimal inflation, the main cause of which are labor market frictions, financial market frictions and risk of achieving zero lower bound of nominal interest rates in the economy (also known as ZLB problem). Using a case-study approach, the article shows that ZLB factor contributes to a significant increase of optimal inflation rate in the countries with relevant experience. Consequently, ZLB factor provides a necessary, though not sufficient, argument in central banks’ discussion concerning inflation target.

Contractual Managerial Incentives with Stock Price Feedback

We study the effect of financial market frictions on managerial compensation. We embed a market microstructure model into an otherwise standard contracting framework, and analyze optimal pay-for-performance when managers use information they learn from the market in their investment decisions. In a less frictional market, the improved information content of stock prices helps guide managerial decisions and thereby necessitates lower-powered compensation. Exploiting a randomized experiment, we document evidence that pay-for-performance is lowered in response to reduced market frictions. Firm investment also becomes more sensitive to stock prices during the experiment, consistent with increased managerial learning from the market. (JEL D83, G12, G14, G32, G34, M12, M52)