Dynamic Amazonia: The EU–Mercosur Trade Agreement and Deforestation

The trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries will increase deforestation in the Mercosur countries and Brazil, in particular, if ratified by member countries. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze how trade, land use, and agricultural production will change as a result of the agreement. We then use a statistical model to spatially allocate the predicted deforestation within the Brazilian Amazon. The models estimate that the agreement will cause additional deforestation in Brazil ranging from 56 to 173 thousand ha to accommodate increases in cropland area, depending on the level of governance, use of double-cropping techniques, and trade elasticity parameters. Most additional deforestation in Amazonia would be clustered near current deforestation hotspot areas. Some hotspots threaten the integrity of Indigenous lands and conservation units. Although a low deforestation scenario with gains in welfare is theoretically possible when high governance and multiple-cropping systems are in place, political challenges remain and cast doubt on Brazil’s ability to rein on illegal deforestation.

The Trade-Comovement Puzzle

Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that while (i) and (ii) fall short of the data, (iii) goes a long way toward resolving the puzzle. (JEL E32, F14, F44)

Impact of the institutional quality on NAFTA's international trade: a system GMM approach

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the impacts of institutional quality on trade flows of NAFTA with a panel data set of 105 countries spanning the period 2006–2017.Design/methodology/approachWe applied the system generalized method of moment (GMM) estimator to investigate the impacts.FindingsThe results show that institutional quality is a positive and significant determinant of international trade flows of the NAFTA bloc and its trading partners. Our results also indicate that the impact of institutional quality depends on the level of economic development of NAFTA's trading partners. Specifically, the trade elasticity of institutional quality is the highest for NAFTA’s trade with middle-income countries and the lowest for NAFTA's trade with low-income countries. In the long run, the trade elasticity of institutional quality increased significantly, with the highest increase in the case of NAFTA's trade with medium-income countries and the lowest increase in the case of NAFTA's trade with low-income countries.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature in three different ways. First, we examine the differential impact of institutions on NAFTA's trade according to the level of economic development of NAFTA's trading partners. Second, we compare the differential trade elasticity of institutional quality in the long run. Finally, we support our findings through an improved research methodology by using the system GMM estimation. This method allows us to overcome the potential sample bias, omitted variable problems and endogeneity of explanatory variables.

Dominant Currency Paradigm

We propose a “dominant currency paradigm” with three key features: dominant currency pricing, pricing complementarities, and imported inputs in production. We test this paradigm using a new dataset of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs that covers 91 percent of world trade, as well as detailed firm-product-country data for Colombian exports and imports. In strong support of the paradigm we find that (i) noncommodities terms-of-trade are uncorrelated with exchange rates; (ii) the dollar exchange rate quantitatively dominates the bilateral exchange rate in price pass-through and trade elasticity regressions, and this effect is increasing in the share of imports invoiced in dollars; (iii) US import volumes are significantly less sensitive to bilateral exchange rates, compared to other countries’ imports; (iv) a 1 percent US dollar appreciation against all other currencies predicts a 0.6 percent decline within a year in the volume of total trade between countries in the rest of the world, controlling for the global business cycle. We characterize the transmission of, and spillovers from, monetary policy shocks in this environment. (JEL E52, F14, F31, F44)

Is world trade slowing down? New evidence on trade-income elasticity

This paper furthers and updates the research on the nature of the so-called global trade slowdown. Not only do we explain and discuss the determinants of this phenomenon, but we also offer an empirical description of the recent evolution of trade and trade elasticity. With the purpose of testing whether this is a structural phenomenon or not, we build an Error Correction Model for both world and regional data on trade and income using data from the World Bank for the period 1970-2017. World, OECD and Asian countries trade elasticity figures show a remarkable reduction after the hyperglobalization period (1986-2001), opposed to those of Latin America where trade volume has not stagnated so much. This slowdown might have major consequences for any country, but especially for those which have relied more intensively on trade as an engine for growth.

ONE EMU FISCAL POLICY FOR THE EURO

We build a two-country New-Keynesian DSGE model of a Currency Union to study the effects of fiscal policy coordination, by evaluating the stabilization properties and welfare implications of different fiscal policy scenarios. Our main findings are that a government spending rule which targets the net exports gap rather than the domestic output gap produces more stable dynamics and that consolidating government budget constraints across countries with symmetric tax rate movements provides greater stabilization. A key role is played by the trade elasticity which determines the impact of the terms of trade on net exports. In fact, when goods are complements, the stabilization properties of coordinating fiscal policies are no longer supported. These findings point out to possible policy prescriptions for the Euro Area: to coordinate fiscal policies by reducing international demand imbalances, either by stabilizing trade flows across countries or by creating some form of Fiscal Union or both.