Identification of cocoa bean quality by near infrared spectroscopy and multivariate modeling

Cocoa is a commodity responsible for the income of millions of people and the manufacture of several important products for the food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic industries. Its quality is associated with several factors involved in the processing steps, mainly in fermentation and drying. The objective of this study was to evaluate the application of near-infrared spectroscopic data associated with multivariate analysis to classify cocoa beans according to their quality and predict attributes such as pH and total acidity by PLS-DA and PLS, respectively. The pH values (4.4-6.7) and total acidity (6.12-29.9) were determined by conventional methods. The PLS-DA proved to be effective in differentiating the classes of cocoa samples with superior and inferior quality, presenting in the validation 100% and 71.43% correct cocoa bean classification with inferior Quality and Higher Quality, respectively. The models obtained by PLS presented satisfactory parameters, being classified as having moderate practical utility and excellent predictive capacity for pH and moderate practical utility and reasonable predictive capacity for total acidity. Thus, the potential of the NIRS technology associated with chemometrics was found and showed efficiency in the classification and prediction of attributes in cocoa beans.

National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 2020

In an era when elections scholars expected American national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout’s trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. This complicates our understanding as we have yet to settle on turnout’s description, much less its explanation. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modeling of American national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modeling turnout’s decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout’s expected steady increase across the modern era (1952–2020). Second, we show that turnout’s increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960–2012).