National Presidential Election Turnout: 1952 to 2020

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110318
Author(s):  
Francine Sanders Romero ◽  
David W. Romero
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Multivariate Modeling ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Modern Era ◽  
Campaign Advertising

In an era when elections scholars expected American national presidential election turnout to increase, its steep, prolonged post-1960 decline sparked deep concern and generated an avalanche of individual-level analyses searching for explanation. The post-1960 decline, however, no longer dominates turnout’s trajectory; it has been on the upswing since 1996. This complicates our understanding as we have yet to settle on turnout’s description, much less its explanation. Here we introduce the first political science-oriented, multivariate modeling of American national presidential election turnout. Our results offer a mix of important confirmatory and original findings. First, we discover that modeling turnout’s decline as a post-1968 secular disturbance reveals turnout’s expected steady increase across the modern era (1952–2020). Second, we show that turnout’s increase can be traced to increased polarization working its influence indirectly through the direct, positive turnout affects of voter external efficacy and negative presidential campaign advertising (1960–2012).

Masks and Emasculation: Populist Crisis Rhetoric and the 2020 Presidential Election

2021 ◽  
pp. 000276422110112
Author(s):  
Meredith Neville-Shepard
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Rhetorical Analysis ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Preventative Measure ◽  
Litmus Test

This essay illustrates how Donald Trump engaged in what I call “populist crisis rhetoric” throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and coinciding 2020 U.S. presidential campaign cycle. By performing a critical rhetorical analysis of textual fragments surrounding how Trump addressed the preventative measure of mask-wearing, I show how he rejected the role of comforter-in-chief and instead opted for the role of victim-in-chief. Specifically, turning the bare face into a litmus test of Trump loyalism, his rhetoric suggested that masks threatened masculinity and functioned as a form of anti-choice bodily oppression.

You’re Fired! Donald Trump and the 2020 Congressional Elections

The Forum ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-650
Author(s):  
Jamie L. Carson ◽  
Spencer Hardin ◽  
Aaron A. Hitefield
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract The 2020 elections brought to an end one of the most divisive and historic campaigns in the modern era. Former Vice President Joe Biden was elected the 46th President of the United States with the largest number of votes ever cast in a presidential election, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in the process. The record turnout was especially remarkable in light of the ongoing pandemic surrounding COVID-19 and the roughly 236,000 Americans who had died of the virus prior to the election. This article examines the electoral context of the 2020 elections focusing on elections in both the House and Senate. More specifically, this article examines the candidates, electoral conditions, trends, and outcomes in the primaries as well as the general election. In doing so, we provide a comprehensive descriptive analysis of the climate and outcome of the 2020 congressional elections. Finally, the article closes with a discussion of the broader implications of the election outcomes on both the incoming 117th Congress as well as the upcoming 2022 midterm election.

scholarly journals The Need for an Established Senate Rule on Election-Year and Lame Duck Session Supreme Court Nominations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Jacob Weaver
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
American History ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Look Back ◽  
History Of ◽  
Lame Duck ◽  
Explicit Rule

In 2016, the Republican-held Senate refused to hold a hearing on President Barack Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, sparking outrage among the Democratic Party. Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell justified his party’s actions based on what became known as the “McConnell Rule.” This controversial rule holds that during years of presidential elections, when the president and the Senate majority are of different parties, the Senate is not expected to confirm the president’s Supreme Court nominees; but, when the president and Senate majority are of the same party, vacancies may be filled. When the Senate applied this rule in 2020, the stakes were even higher. Revered liberal stalwart Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away only 46 days before the 2020 presidential election. Invoking the McConnell Rule, the Republican-held Senate moved forward with the confirmation of President Trump’s nominee Amy Coney Barrett. This contentious move again infuriated Democrats, and the presidential campaign. Now that Justice Barrett has been appointed and the presidential election has passed, it is useful to look back on the history of Supreme Court nominations during presidential election years. Such a review suggests that the so-called McConnell Rule is rooted in valid historical precedent. In fact, viewed in light of American history, even a Trump lame duck nomination and confirmation would have been valid. This blog post argues that the Senate should distill this historical precedent into an explicit Rule of the Senate that will govern the chamber going forward. The rule should obligate the Senate to either (1) hold a vote to confirm the election-year or lame duck nominee, or (2) hold a vote to postpone action on the nomination. If a vote to postpone action on the nomination fails, the rule should then compel the Senate to hold a vote to confirm the nominee. Such a rule removes all doubt about the Senate’s authority to act or refuse to act on election-year and lame duck nominees, exposes unfounded threats of retaliation by minority parties, and best conforms to the Constitution.

scholarly journals Negative Campaign Advertising: Demobilizer or Mobilizer?

1999 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 891-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin P. Wattenberg ◽  
Craig Leonard Brians
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Real World ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Political Campaigns ◽  
Experimental Setting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Negative Advertising ◽  
Campaign Advertising

As political campaigns become increasingly adversarial, scholars are giving some much-needed attention to the effect of negative advertising on turnout. In a widely recognized Review article and subsequent book, Ansolabehere and his colleagues (1994, 1995) contend that attack advertising drives potential voters away from the polls. We dispute the generalizability of this claim outside the experimental setting. Using NES survey data as well as aggregate sources, we subject their research to rigorous real-world testing. The survey data directly contradict their findings, yielding no evidence of a turnout disadvantage for those who recollected negative presidential campaign advertising. In attempting to replicate Ansolabehere et al.'s earlier aggregate results we uncover quite substantial discrepancies and inconsistencies in their data set. We conclude that their aggregate study is deeply flawed and that Ansolabehere et al. exaggerated the demobilization dangers posed by attack advertising, at least in voters' own context.

Critical sociocognitive analysis of hate speech in the 2015 Nigerian presidential election campaigns

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adesina B. Sunday
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Hate Speech ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Shared Knowledge ◽  
Election Campaigns

Abstract In an attempt to ensure electoral victory, politicians use different strategies. One of such is resort to hate speech to discredit the opponents. The 2015 presidential election campaigns in Nigeria witnessed unrestrained use of hate speech in different media. This paper analysed selected speeches of the campaign organisations of the two leading political parties in the election, namely the Peoples Democratic Party Presidential Campaign Organisation and the All Progressives Congress Presidential Campaign Organisation. Data were got from the speeches and advertorials of the two organisations sampled from The Nation and The Punch, published between January and March 2015. The speeches were subjected to critical sociocognitive analysis. The antecedents of the candidates became a recipe for hate speech. Propagandist and alarmist ideologies were used. Socially shared knowledge played an important role in the hate speech. Figures were used symbolically and serious attempts were made to frighten the electorate.

scholarly journals RACE, JUSTICE, POLICING, AND THE 2016 AMERICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Drakulich ◽  
John Hagan ◽  
Devon Johnson ◽  
Kevin H. Wozniak
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
War On Crime ◽  
Perceptions Of Police ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Election Studies ◽  
Attitudes Toward The Police ◽  
Modern Era

AbstractScholars have long been interested in the intersection of race, crime, justice, and presidential politics, focusing particularly on the “southern strategy” and the “war on crime.” A recent string of highly-publicized citizen deaths at the hands of police and the emergence of the Black Lives Matter movement have brought renewed visibility to this racially-driven intersection, and in particular to issues involving contact with and attitudes toward the police. Using data from the 2016 Pilot Study of the American National Election Studies, this study explores how contact with the criminal justice system and perceptions of police injustice shape political behavior in the modern era, with a specific emphasis on prospective participation and candidate choice in the 2016 presidential election. The results indicate that being stopped by the police—an experience that can feel invasive and unjust—may motivate political participation, while spending time in jail or prison—an experience associated with a marginalization from mainstream civic life—appears to discourage political participation. Perceiving the police as discriminatory also seems to motivate political engagement and participation, though in opposite directions for conservative versus liberal voters. In addition, perceptions of police injustice were related to candidate choice, driving voters away from Donald Trump. Affective feelings about the police were not associated with candidate choice. Perceptions of the police appear to act in part as a proxy for racial resentments, at least among potential voters in the Republican primary. In sum, the intersection of race, justice, and policing remains highly relevant in U.S. politics.

scholarly journals LOCAL ECONOMIC VOTING AND RESIDENCE-BASED REGIONALISM IN SOUTH KOREA: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2007 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 349-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woo Chang Kang
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Regional Parties ◽  
National Economic ◽  
The Individual

AbstractRegional bloc voting in South Korea has been ascribed to voters’ psychological attachments to birthplace. This article seeks to expand the existing discussion of regionalism by showing that economic conditions in voters’ places of residence affect vote choices at the individual level and produce clustering of votes at the aggregate level in South Korea. While the idea of residence-based regionalism has previously been suggested, empirical scrutiny of the idea has been limited. Exploiting a Bayesian multilevel strategy, this article provides evidence that short-term economic changes at the province level affected voters’ choices in the 2007 presidential election in South Korea, independent of the long-term political affiliation between regional parties and their constituents. The positive association between local economic conditions and vote choices remains significant, controlling for perceptions of national economic conditions and other individual level covariates such as age and political attitudes.

scholarly journals Change We Can Believe In? Using Political Science to Predict Policy Change in the Obama Presidency

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (02) ◽  
pp. 329-333 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Woon
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Ideal Point ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
Point Estimates

Based on the results of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections, an analysis using theories and methods of modern political science (pivotal politics theory, ideal point estimates, and bootstrap simulations) suggests that the conditions are ripe for real policy change. Specifically, we should expect policies to move significantly in a liberal direction, few or no policies should move in a conservative direction, and many of the outcomes will be moderate or somewhat to the left of center (rather than far left). Furthermore, the predictions depend as much on partisan polarization and the results of the congressional election as they do on the outcome of presidential election itself.

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