Forward Guidance and Corporate Lending

We suggest that forward guidance, via publicly committing the central bank to future actions and creating associated expectations, fundamentally affects bank lending decisions independently of other forms of monetary policy. To test this hypothesis, we build a forward guidance measure based on the language used in the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and match this measure with syndicated loans. Our results show that expansionary forward guidance decreases corporate loan spreads and that this effect is stronger for well-capitalized banks lending to riskier firms. Forward guidance also affects nonprice lending terms, such as covenants, performance pricing provisions, and the loan syndicate structure. Additionally, banks tend to initiate new lending relationships with lower spreads after forward guidance issuance.

Un-used Bank Capital Buffers and Credit Supply Shocks at SMEs during the Pandemic

Did banks curb lending to creditworthy small and mid-sized enterprises (SME) during the COVID-19 pandemic? Sitting on top of minimum capital requirements, regulatory capital buffers introduced after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) are costly regions of "rainy day" equity capital designed to absorb losses and provide lending capacity in a downturn. Using a novel set of confidential loan level data that includes private SME firms, we show that "buffer-constrained" banks (those entering the pandemic with capital ratios close to this regulatory buffer region) reduced loan commitments to SME firms by an average of 1.4 percent more (quarterly) and were 4 percent more likely to end pre-existing lending relationships during the pandemic as compared to "buffer-unconstrained" banks (those entering the pandemic with capital ratios far from the regulatory capital buffer region). We further find heterogenous effects across firms, as buffer-constrained banks disproportionately curtailed credit to three types of borrowers: (1) private, bank-dependent SME firms, (2) firms whose lending relationships were relatively young, and (3) firms whose pre-pandemic credit lines contractually matured at the start of the pandemic (and thus were up for renegotiation). While the post-2008 period saw the rise of banking system capital to historically high levels, these capital buffers went effectively unused during the pandemic. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first to: (1) empirically test the usability of these Basel III regulatory buffers in a downturn, and (2) contribute a bank capital-based transmission channel to the literature studying how the pandemic transmitted shocks to SME firms.

Institutional Dual-Holders and Managers' Earnings Disclosure

We investigate how institutional (non-commercial bank) investors that simultaneously invest in a firm's debt and equity (dual-holders) influence the firm's voluntary disclosure. Because institutional dual-holders trade on private information gleaned through lending relationships, we predict and find that borrowers increase earnings forecast disclosure to reduce these investors' information advantage following the origination of loans with their participation. We also show that the increase in disclosure is stronger when the access to a borrower's private information endows dual-holders with a greater information advantage and when the consequences of this access are likely to be more pronounced. We further find that institutional dual-holders earn excess returns when trading equity of non-guider firms following loan origination, but not when firms issue guidance, confirming that earnings disclosure helps level the playing field among investors. Our findings highlight that firms actively use disclosure to mitigate the adverse effect of dual-holders on their information environment.