Recurrent Multinomial Models for Categorical Sequences

This paper presents a model of recurrent multinomial sequences. Though there exists a quite considerable literature on modeling autocorrelation in numerical data and sequences of categorical outcomes, there is currently no systematic method of modeling patterns of recurrence in categorical sequences. This paper develops a means of discovering recurrent patterns by employing a more restrictive Markov assumption. The resulting model, which I call the recurrent multinomial model, provides a parsimonious representation of recurrent sequences, enabling the investigation of recurrences on longer time scales than existing models. The utility of recurrent multinomial models is demonstrated by applying them to the case of conversational turn-taking in meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Analyses are effectively able to discover norms around turn-reclaiming, participation, and suppression and to evaluate how these norms vary throughout the course of the meeting.

Unconventional Monetary Policy through Open Market Operations: A Principal Component Analysis

This paper examines the unconventional monetary policies of the Bank of Japan from 2002 to 2019 with a focus on open market operations. We apply a principal component analysis to investigate the complexity of monetary policy. Our results identify four principal components that explain the variance of measures taken by the Bank of Japan and its operation of various facilities: asset purchase measures including Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs), and three different liquidity supply measures. Complexity differs substantially among different governorships of Fukui, Shirakawa (most complex), and Kuroda. We derive some conclusions from the increased complexity with implications for the economy.

Antibacterial and antioxidant activity of different extracts obtained from Withania somnifera (Ashwagandha)

Ashwagandha (W. somnifera) is widely known as the queen of Indian Ayurveda. The objective of this study was to determine the antioxidant and antibacterial activity of the different parts of the Ashwagandha. The antioxidant activity of different extracts from different parts of Ashwagandha was determined using DPPH free radical scavenging method. Ashwaghanda root inhabiting bacteria was isolated using pour-plate technique. The agar well method and filter paper method were followed to assess the antibacterial activity of the extracts. Ethanol-water extracts (1:1 v/v) gave higher yield of extractable matter than methanol extracts. The antioxidant activity of fresh root extract was significantly higher than other parts of the plant (stem and leaves) as well as the plant material bought from open market. The minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) values of Ethanol-water extract against MRSA, Candida Sp. and Salmonella Sp. were >256 mg/L. The commensal bacteria (Bacilli Sp.) inhabiting Ashwagandha roots displayed mild antibacterial activity against pathogenic P. aeruginosa. Keywords: Ashwaghanda, commensal bacteria, Antibacterial activity, Antioxidant activity, Crude extracts

Effect of Parkia biglobosa seed on lipid profile of dexamethasone-treated pregnant rats

This study was aimed at evaluating the effect of Parkia biglobosa seed on dexamethasone-treated pregnant rats. Locust bean seeds were purchased from an open market in Ado Ekiti, Nigeria. It was processed and ground into powder which was subsequently used in formulating feed for experimental animals. Fifteen female pregnant rats were divided in three groups of five each. Animals in group A were exposed to standard animal feed only. This served as the control group. Those in group B were exposed to animal feed mixed with locust beans + 0.3 mg/kg body weight of dexamethasone, while those in group C were exposed to animal feed mixed with locust beans. At the end of eight days treatment, animals were sacrificed and blood sample was collected into EDTA bottles and centrifuged. Plasma was separated and used for the determination of glucose and lipid profile. Exposure of animals to dexamethasone was observed to significantly (p<0.05) increased the concentration of plasma glucose concentration when compared with the control as well as animals treated with P. biglobosa only. Animals treated with dexamethasone along with P. biglobosa were observed to have higher concentrations of triglyceride, total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL) and very low density lipoprotein (VLDL) when compared with those in animals in the control group as well as those treated with P. biglobosa only. Observations from this study revealed that dexamethasone adversely perturbed and unhinged plasma glucose and lipid profile in female pregnant rats while P. biglobosa-formulated diet was observed to be a potent hypoglycemic and hypolipidemic agent.

Impact of the OMRR Operation in Fighting the Adverse Effects of COVID-19 on the Chinese Stock Market: An Event Study

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has had an adverse effect on China's economy. This paper uses the event study method to test and measure the impact of the open market reverse repo (OMRR) operation on the Chinese stock market. The results show that the OMRR operation generates a positive daily abnormal return and a positive daily cumulative abnormal return on average for all stocks. The impact is larger for non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) firms than for SOE firms, stocks of non-Hubei provinces than those of the Hubei province, and for stocks of the information transmission and technology industry than those of other industries. We suggest that our government implement more prudent monetary policies and more proactive fiscal policies.

Monetary Policy Response in the Republic of North Macedonia and the Republic of Albania for Coping with the Pandemic COVID-19 in 2020

This study aims to analyse how the monetary policies of the Republic of North Macedonia and the Republic of Albania, as one of the two critical macroeconomic policies, have reacted in response to COVID-19 for the year 2020. Last year, the year 2020, the pandemic caused these two countries to react through monetary policy. This research examines how central banks of both countries have changed traditional monetary policy tools for tackling the pandemic, starting with open market operations, required reserve ratio, the overnight loans interest rate, and the available deposits interest rate. The research continues with analyzing whether they were used and what non-traditional tools were applied in that period. The study analysis concludes which monetary policies have been pursued in the Republic of North Macedonia and the Republic of Albania, whether there have been non-traditional tools and how the scope for interbank interest rate volatility has changed. Our study revealed that both countries had pursued an expansive monetary policy, there were also non-traditional tools, and the scope for interbank interest rate volatility has shifted towards narrowing. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Load frequency control of thermal system under deregulated environment using slime mould algorithm

This paper emphasizes the significance of PID controller parameters using a slime mould algorithm (SMA) to reduce load frequency control (LFC) issues in a thermal system in an open market scenario. The SMA is used to solve the parameterization of the PID controller, which was formulated as an optimization problem.The performance of the PID controller parameters improves the dynamic characteristics of the system as frequency in each area, and also deviations in tie line power after sudden load violation. In order to study the efficiency of the proposed method, the system was tested with different power transactions for a small load disturbance and the comparative results were presented. The optimal value of the controller parameters derived from SMA based PID controller is estimated using a finite nonlinear optimization using a performance index based method.

Prediction of the EDT Trends – National and Supranational Activities

Defence capabilities have always been heavily dependent on technological capabilities. This dependence is significantly emphasized nowadays due to the very rapid advancement of science and technology relevant to defence, and especially due to the emergence of disruptive technologies. However, emerging and disruptive technologies are well known throughout human history (fire, wheel, metals, gunpowder, external and internal combustion engines, etc.). Today, the cycle of emergence, application and response to the EDT is much faster, due to globalisation and maturation of information technologies. Smaller countries, because of their modest industrial and technological base at the national level, have problems to follow the emerging and disruptive technologies. In modern civilization, the military is losing its traditional centuries-old role as a privileged customer for purchasing new, technologically advanced products and must face competition in the open market. In this case, defence must be actively involved in monitoring and predicting technological trends, with an emphasis on disruptive technologies. Countries, especially those with strong armed forces and a long military tradition, have been doing this for a long time, but supranational activities (NATO and the EU) are relatively recent. These supranational activities are an important complement to national efforts and it is recommended that they should not be neglected by smaller NATO and EU member states.

THE IMPACT OF ISLAMIC MONETARY OPERATIONS AND AGGREGATE FINANCING ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA (2010-2020)

Islamic monetary operation policies are regulated to increase the effectiveness in facing economic developments, especially the monetary sector. The working mechanism of the Islamic monetary operation up to its impact on the development of the national economy illustrates the monetary policy transmission carried out by Bank Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS), Bank Indonesia Sharia Deposit Facility (FASBIS), Sharia Interbank Money Market (PUAS), and aggregate financing on Indonesia's economic growth in the period 2010 to 2020. This research method uses a quantitative approach with the analysis technique Vector Auto Regression (VAR) or Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to see the long-term impact and shock response on certain variables. Using secondary data on the variables, it is obtained from the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics Bank Indonesia (SEKI-BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the period January 2010 to December 2020. This study found that the SBIS variable has a negative relationship with GDP. Meanwhile, the variables FASBIS, PUAS, and aggregate financing have a positive relationship with GDP. For the future, it can be used as input and consideration in policy making that will be determined in optimizing Islamic monetary policy in Indonesia. Further research that will discuss this topic should use Islamic monetary instruments that are more complete than Islamic open market operations and sharia standing facilities. As well as comparing with conventional monetary operation instruments as a comparison for Islamic monetary.