Digitalization of Goal-Setting: From the Formation of a Target Plan to Creation of a Development Scenario

The growing dynamics of economic processes, uncertainty and complex interconnectedness of development goals require an early transfer of the process of strategic goal-setting of regional development into the format of digital models that would make it possible to recalculate the quantitative parameters of the strategy in case of any change in target guidelines, resource constraints and parameters of the external environment. This action would sufficiently increase the efficiency of the entire strategizing process. The most important tasks in this case are the development of an end-to-end methodology and the digitization of the processes of development of a consistent system of targets and their attainability assessment. The article attempts to document the solution of the tasks of goal-setting and forecasting and to provide users with digital tools to facilitate the passage of these stages in the process of strategic planning of regional development. An approach to achieving the statesd goals is suggested within the framework of problem solution of the best distribution of produced goods between accumulation and consumption. It is shown that the target indicators used in strategic planning should be divided into basic, supporting and derived ones. In this approach, target values should only be set for the basic indicators. As for the supporting indicators the target values should be calculated when solving the task of economic capacity development which is necessary and sufficient to ensure the target values of baseline indicators. The informational technology for the construction of regional development scenario is based on the SNA methodology and computable models of general equilibrium leading to the achievement of the goals set. The technology presents a system of digital models that provide a quantitative description of the results of strategic planning as a single process which starts from the target plan and ends by the development scenario. The core of the system of models is a digital model of the region (constituent entity of the Russian Federation), built within the class of computable general equilibrium models. The developed methods and tools will be useful for developers of regional strategies, since at the goal-setting stage they allow to balance strategic goals and avoid irreconcilable contradictions in the process of target setting.

A Quantitative Relationship Analysis of Industry Shifts and Trade Restructuring in ASEAN Based on Multiregional Computable General Equilibrium Models

This paper provides an in-depth study and analysis of the quantitative relationship between ASEAN industry transfer and nuclear trade restructuring through the multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and categorizes the ten major projects and 57 subprojects covered by the ASEAN Information Port project investment into construction, information technology, and telecommunications, according to the key directions of investment. We design and simulate the changes in production activities, trade activities, and the balance of payments behaviour of the national economy affected by the project’s investment under 10 types of investment amount scenarios and prepare the corresponding social accounting matrix (SAM). Increased trade openness increases external risks and instability of the economy and fiscal revenues. At the same time, it creates other potential problems for the country such as environmental pollution and leading to unfair competition. Under free trade conditions, some manufacturers may choose to produce inputs that are not environmentally friendly to reduce costs, thereby harming the environment. For infant industries, if the government does not provide them with short-term protection or supportive policies, these new or developing infant industries may not have strong international competitiveness and may be vulnerable to the attacks of mature industries in the world. Therefore, based on the study of the influence of tax policy on trade openness, this paper examines the impact of changes in trade openness on a country’s economic environment and takes tax revenue as an example to conduct an empirical analysis and improve the factors that need to be considered when adjusting tax policy.