SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN PADA IMPLEMENTASI PERJANJIAN KOMPREHENSIF INDONESIA-AUSTRALIA (IA-CEPA) TERHADAP PASAR DAGING SAPI DOMESTIK

Abstrak Beberapa tahun terakhir, pemenuhan permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia masih bergantung pada impor khususnya dari Australia. Impor daging sapi dapat menstabilkan harga daging sapi domestik, tetapi di lain sisi dapat menekan pendapatan peternak lokal. Implementasi dari IA-CEPA adalah penghapusan tarif impor dan TRQ (Tariff Rate Quota) untuk komoditas sapi hidup. Penghapusan tarif menyebabkan harga sapi yang masuk ke Indonesia menjadi lebih murah dan memperbesar peluang peningkatan volume impor sapi hidup. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis skenario terbaik untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi dengan menggunakan model persamaan simultan 2SLS (two stage least square). Simulasi dilakukan untuk tiga skenario yaitu skenario penghapusan tarif, penetapan kuota, dan TRQ. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa skenario penghapusan tarif memberikan total peningkatan kesejahteraan pelaku ekonomi terbesar yaitu 115 miliar dengan rincian defisit 736 miliar bagi produsen, surplus 936 miliar bagi konsumen, dan defisit 85 miliar untuk penerimaan pemerintah. Oleh karena itu, skenario yang direkomendasikan adalah skenario penghapusan tarif pada impor sapi dari Australia. Kata Kunci: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Pasar Daging Sapi Abstract Recently, demand fulfillment of beef in Indonesia depended on imports, especially from Australia. import can stabilize the domestic price of beef, but the other hand can suppress the income of local farmers. Implementation of IA-CEPA policies is the elimination of import tariff and TRQ (tariff rate quota) for live cattle commodities. Elimination of import tariff causes the price of cattle to enter Indonesia to be cheaper and increases the opportunity to increase the import volume of live cattle. The study aims to investigate the best scenario that can improve the welfare of economic actors using simultaneous equation model 2SLS (two-stage least squares). Three scenarios that simulated are eliminating tariff, setting quota, and TRQ. The result shows that eliminating tariffs gives the largest total welfare increase of economic actors that is 115 billion, with a 736 billion deficit for producers, 936 billion surplus for consumers, and 85 billion deficit for government revenue. Therefore, the policy recommendation is the scenario of eliminating tariffs on cattle imports from Australia. Keywords: 2SLS, IA-CEPA, Beef Market JEL Classification: C53, F12, F13

The Dynamics between External Public Debt and Foreign Exchange Reserve of Ethiopia Economy: 1981 to 2019

This paper empirically examined the short-run and long-run dynamics among external public debt and foreign exchange reserve of Ethiopia. The two variables are playing a pivotal role in the growth and development of nations economy. To achieve the objective the study took 39 years data from the year 1981 to 2019 from National bank of Ethiopia and World Bank data sets. The study used descriptive analysis and empirical methods of analysis. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model with error correction models were employed after checking the possible assumptions of our economic series. The results of ADF test statistics confirms our economic series are stationary at level and first difference forms. Bounds co-integration test suggests one co-integrating relationship between the variables taking foreign exchange reserve as the outcome variable. According to the descriptive method of analysis, on average, in Ethiopia the trend for service sector indicated that an ever improvement of the sector throughout the periods and supplementing the notion of change from agriculture base to service sector. In addition, the trade tariff rate of Ethiopian economy is indicating a downward movement and this in turn justifies the relative openness of the economy to the globe. In the same manner the financial development indicator of the nation is rising, which assures relative improvement in the financial sector. On the other hand, according to the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model in the short -run average trade tariff rate, share of manufacturing sector from the GDP, and lagged value of EPD itself predicts the external public debt significant at least at less than 10 percent level of significance. Moreover, the error correction model revealed that in the long-run, financial development indicator, debt service payment, and average trade tariff rate were predicting the stock of foreign exchange reserve for Ethiopian economy. The result also indicates that in the short-run, only the share of agriculture and service sectors are significantly predicting the variations of the stock of foreign exchange reserve, ceteris paribus. Finally, the concerned body specially the government of Ethiopia should limit or reduce the amount of external debt inflows that has an adverse effect on debt service payment, and recheck the budget sources for financing different projects especially manufacturing industries rather than highly basing on external sources in the form of external public debt . More importantly, the government should enhance the value of export potential, among others.

Corn trade simulations of China: reduction in tariffs versus expansion in tariff-rate quotas

PurposeCorn, which has the highest domestic production, planting area and consumption, is the top cereal in relation to demand and supply in China. However, the comparative advantage of China in corn has continuously deteriorated in recent years and based on the recent situation and possible supply and demand trends, it is widely accepted that a corn self-sufficiency rate of 95% is difficult to achieve. Under current import-restriction policies, corn may stand at the crossroads of reforms to solve its predicted insufficient supply. In this study, the authors analyse the necessity of relaxing trade restrictions on corn in China and explore the effects of trade restrictions by reducing tariffs and expanding tariff-rate quotas on corn and related industries and the welfare change caused by possible relaxations.Design/methodology/approachThe authors construct a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and design nine scenarios for the analysis.FindingsThe results show that relaxations of import restrictions are probable methods to meet the aim of sufficient corn supply during shortages. They are simulated to reduce corn's domestic production and price, increase import and import prices and lead to a decline in self-sufficiency but benefit the production of corn-related industries of corn. The results also imply that expanding the quota is a better method for releasing trade restrictions in China.Originality/valueThe comparative advantage of China in corn deteriorated with an increase in prices. Based on the current situation and possible trends of supply and demand, the referenced goal of achieving 95% corn self-sufficiency appears difficult, implying that reliance on imports is probably imminent and vital. This study provides simulation results in future scenarios and offers policy implications for China's corn trade policies.

The Dynamics of Foreign Public Debt and Foreign Exchange Reserve of Ethiopia: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Approach

External public debt and foreign exchange reserve (FER) are performing a crucial role in the growth and development of countries. To examine the short-run and long-run dynamics among external public debt (EPD) and FER in Ethiopia, the study used 39 years data (1981 to 2019) from National bank of Ethiopia (NBE) and World Bank data sets. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with error correction model (ECM) was employed after checking the possible assumptions of economic series. The results of ADF test statistics confirms our economic series are stationary with a mixture of level form and first difference form. Bounds co-integration test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. According to the descriptive method of data analysis, on average, in Ethiopia the trend for service sector indicated that an ever improvement of the sector throughout the periods and supplementing the notion of change from agriculture base to service sector. On the other hand, according to ARDL model in the short -run on average trade tariff rate, share of manufacturing sector from the GDP, and lagged value of EPD itself predicts the EPD significantly at least at less than 10% level of significance . Moreover, the ECM revealed that in the long-run, financial development indicator, debt service payment, and average trade tariff rate were predicting the stock of FER for Ethiopian economy. Finally, the concerned body, the government of Ethiopia, should limit or reduce the amount of external debt (ED) inflows, and recheck the budget sources for financing different projects especially manufacturing industries rather than highly basing on external sources in the form of EPD, among others.

China – Tariff Rate Quotas for Certain Agricultural Products: Against the Grain: Can the WTO Open Chinese Markets? A Contaminated Experiment

The US complaint about Chinese tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on certain grain products helps illustrate several key issues in US–China trade relations and the effectiveness of WTO disputes. First, do international obligations based on transparency and fairness work in relation to an authoritarian country not known for the rule of law domestically? Second, can there be a disconnect between the legal aspects of a dispute and the underlying economic interests, with a DSB ruling sometimes not leading to improved trade flows? And third, given the bilateral trade war and ‘phase one’ trade deal between the United States and China, has the WTO been superseded in this trade relationship? This paper summarizes the facts and law of the China–TRQs dispute, and examines each of these questions in that context.

Impact of Revised Time of Use Tariff on Variable Renewable Energy Curtailment on Jeju Island

Jeju Island announced the “Carbon Free Island (CFI) Plan by 2030” in 2012. This plan aims to replace conventional generators with distributed energy resources (DERs) up to a level of 70% by 2030. Akin to Jeju Island, as DERs have been expanded in islanded power systems, variable renewable energy (VRE) has become a significant component of DERs. However, VRE curtailment can occur to meet power balance, and VRE curtailment generally causes energy waste and low efficiency, so it should be minimized. This paper first presents a systematic procedure for estimating the annual VRE curtailment for the stable operation of the islanded power systems. In this procedure, the VRE curtailment is estimated based on the power demand, the grid interconnection, the capacity factor of VRE, and conventional generators in the base year. Next, through the analysis of the hourly net load profile for the year in which the VRE curtailment is expected to occur, a procedure was proposed to find the season and hour when VRE curtailment occurs the most. It could be applied to revised Time-of-Use (ToU) tariff rates as the most cost-effective mitigation method of VRE curtailment on the retail market-side. Finally, price elasticity of electricity demand was presented for applying the revised ToU tariff rate scenarios in a specific season and hour, which found that VRE curtailment occurred the most. Considering self- and cross-price elasticity of electricity, revised ToU tariff rate scenarios were used in a case study on Jeju Island. Eventually, it was confirmed that VRE curtailment could be mitigated when the revised ToU tariff rates were applied, considering the price elasticity of demand.

Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute: background.

In this chapter, we examine the importance of softwood lumber production to Canada's economy and provide a brief history of the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute and its resolution on various occasions using U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties, export taxes or various types of quota regimes, including tariff rate quotas. The construction of excess supply and demand functions is explained, as are the gains from trade. This helps inform the modeling approaches that are identified in later chapters.

Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute: background.

In this chapter, we examine the importance of softwood lumber production to Canada's economy and provide a brief history of the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute and its resolution on various occasions using U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties, export taxes or various types of quota regimes, including tariff rate quotas. The construction of excess supply and demand functions is explained, as are the gains from trade. This helps inform the modeling approaches that are identified in later chapters.