Corn trade simulations of China: reduction in tariffs versus expansion in tariff-rate quotas

PurposeCorn, which has the highest domestic production, planting area and consumption, is the top cereal in relation to demand and supply in China. However, the comparative advantage of China in corn has continuously deteriorated in recent years and based on the recent situation and possible supply and demand trends, it is widely accepted that a corn self-sufficiency rate of 95% is difficult to achieve. Under current import-restriction policies, corn may stand at the crossroads of reforms to solve its predicted insufficient supply. In this study, the authors analyse the necessity of relaxing trade restrictions on corn in China and explore the effects of trade restrictions by reducing tariffs and expanding tariff-rate quotas on corn and related industries and the welfare change caused by possible relaxations.Design/methodology/approachThe authors construct a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and design nine scenarios for the analysis.FindingsThe results show that relaxations of import restrictions are probable methods to meet the aim of sufficient corn supply during shortages. They are simulated to reduce corn's domestic production and price, increase import and import prices and lead to a decline in self-sufficiency but benefit the production of corn-related industries of corn. The results also imply that expanding the quota is a better method for releasing trade restrictions in China.Originality/valueThe comparative advantage of China in corn deteriorated with an increase in prices. Based on the current situation and possible trends of supply and demand, the referenced goal of achieving 95% corn self-sufficiency appears difficult, implying that reliance on imports is probably imminent and vital. This study provides simulation results in future scenarios and offers policy implications for China's corn trade policies.

China – Tariff Rate Quotas for Certain Agricultural Products: Against the Grain: Can the WTO Open Chinese Markets? A Contaminated Experiment

The US complaint about Chinese tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on certain grain products helps illustrate several key issues in US–China trade relations and the effectiveness of WTO disputes. First, do international obligations based on transparency and fairness work in relation to an authoritarian country not known for the rule of law domestically? Second, can there be a disconnect between the legal aspects of a dispute and the underlying economic interests, with a DSB ruling sometimes not leading to improved trade flows? And third, given the bilateral trade war and ‘phase one’ trade deal between the United States and China, has the WTO been superseded in this trade relationship? This paper summarizes the facts and law of the China–TRQs dispute, and examines each of these questions in that context.

Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute: background.

In this chapter, we examine the importance of softwood lumber production to Canada's economy and provide a brief history of the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute and its resolution on various occasions using U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties, export taxes or various types of quota regimes, including tariff rate quotas. The construction of excess supply and demand functions is explained, as are the gains from trade. This helps inform the modeling approaches that are identified in later chapters.

Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute: background.

In this chapter, we examine the importance of softwood lumber production to Canada's economy and provide a brief history of the Canada-U.S. softwood lumber dispute and its resolution on various occasions using U.S. countervailing and anti-dumping duties, export taxes or various types of quota regimes, including tariff rate quotas. The construction of excess supply and demand functions is explained, as are the gains from trade. This helps inform the modeling approaches that are identified in later chapters.

Introductory Note

In 2017 panel and Appellate Body reports were adopted in nine disputes. The disputes concerned alleged violations under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade of 1994 (GATT 1994), the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM Agreement), the Anti-Dumping Agreement, and the Agreement on Agriculture. Four of the disputes concerned restrictions placed on the importation of animal products (mainly poultry and pigs), such as licensing requirements and import restrictions, tariff rate quotas established following re-negotiations with principal suppliers, and SPS measures. The dispute over a ban on importation of pigs featured an important issue relating to the “regionalization” of SPS measures. Two disputes provided clarification as to the relationship between WTO agreements, in particular, the relationship between GATT 1994 and the Agreement on Agriculture. The year 2017 also saw another case in the “series” of the Airbus/Boeing subsidies disputes, with the United States scoring a victory over the European Union.