How party polarization shapes the structuring of policy preferences in Europe

A significant body of literature has addressed the impact of party polarization on voting behavior. Yet little is known of the relationship between party polarization and belief systems. The present study argues that party polarization enhances the ideological consistency of belief systems and does so for the citizenry as a whole. We first demonstrate that the more party systems are polarized on economic and sociocultural issues, the more consistently belief systems are aligned with the progressive-conservative continuum. Second, we show that ideological consistency is greater in highly polarized party systems, not only among the most politically attuned Europeans but also among those with lower levels of political sophistication. Results have implications for our understanding of citizen competence and responsiveness to elite cues in polarized party systems.

From Brexit to Biden: What Responses to National Outcomes Tell Us About the Nature of Relief

Recent claims contrast relief experienced because a period of unpleasant uncertainty has ended and an outcome has materialized (temporal relief)—regardless of whether it is one’s preferred outcome—with relief experienced because a particular outcome has occurred, when the alternative was unpalatable (counterfactual relief). Two studies ( N = 993), one run the day after the United Kingdom left the European Union and one the day after Joe Biden’s inauguration, confirmed these claims. “Leavers” and Biden voters experienced high levels of relief, and less regret and disappointment than “Remainers” and Trump voters. “Remainers” and Trump voters showed an effect of precursor, experiencing little relief about the outcome that had occurred but stronger relief that a decision had been implemented. Only Trump voters who believed the election was over showed this precursor effect. Results suggest at least two different triggering conditions for relief and indicate a role for anticipated relief in voting behavior.

The Unstable Voting Behaviour: Tracing of the Voting Behaviour in Indonesia Post-Reformasi Era

Article aimed to analyses about construction of voting behavior in Indonesia election implementation. It urge and significant to elaborate and scrutinize political preferential which became base foundation to elect and submit their vote. There are two prominent factor can be main tools to covering voting behavior trend In Indonesia. Firstly, figures presumably primary sources to mention constructing public voting behavior. In Indonesia post authoritarian era, democracy has been suspended due to emergence of strong figure. This become ironic in implementation of democracy when hijacked oligarchic power that still persist and insist their resources in recent era. Secondly, analyzing of voting behavior in Indonesia has been swiftly in every election. It’s important to note that main character of voting behavior is swing voters dominated by young residents. Therefore, voting behavior trend fluctuated depending on issue and media news, become main consideration public to elect and submit their vote. In addition to both factor, emergence of political broker in recent election has indicated urgent needs to bridging voter and candidate in order to more engage. Those three factor will be primary focus to be elaborated in this paper, how recent trend in voting behavior in Indonesia and its impact to election event.AbstrakArtikel ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis konstruksi perilaku memilih dalam pemilu Indonesia. Isu ini menjadi penting dan siginifikan dalam melihat pola preferensi memilih ketika akan mencontreng kertas suara. Temuan dalam riset ini memuat dua faktor penting yang menjadi basis politik perilaku memilih Indonesia. Pertama, kekuatan personal seorang elite agaknya menjadi faktor penting dalam membaca perilaku memilih tersebut. Hal ini dikarenakan kondisi demokrasi Indonesia yang masih terbajak oleh kekuatan oligarki yang masih cukup kuat. Kedua, masih adanya masa pemilih mengambang, utamanya kalangan muda dan terdidik. Hal tersebut dikarenakan perilaku politik mereka masih dipengaruhi adanya isu dan kepentingan. Di luar dari kedua faktor tersebut, munculnya broker politik dan uang politik menjadi faktor yang tidak bisa terelakan dalam konstruksi perilaku memilih di Indonesia paskareformasi.

Geographic variation in personality is associated with fertility across the United States

Levels of fertility and the shape of the age-specific fertility schedule vary substantially across U.S. regions with some states having peak fertility relatively early and others relatively late. Structural institutions or economic factors partly explain these heterogeneous patterns, but regional differences in personality might also contribute to regional differences in fertility. Here, we evaluated whether variation in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness to experience measured at the U.S. state-level was associated with the level, timing, and context of fertility across states above and beyond sociodemographics, voting behavior, and religiosity. Generally, states with higher levels of agreeableness and conscientiousness had more traditional fertility patterns, and states with higher levels of neuroticism and openness had more nontraditional fertility patterns, even after controlling for established correlates of fertility (r ~ |.50|). Personality is an overlooked correlate that can be leveraged to understand the existence and persistence of fertility differentials.

A Disproportionality Bias in the Bureau of the Regional Assembly of Madrid

This paper analyses the voting behavior of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly of Madrid to appoint the Bureau, its representative body, in all the legislatures since its inception (1983–2021). To this end, the actual result of the voting is compared with the mock result attained by following a Nash equilibrium (NE) and a d’Hondt (d’H) allocation in each vote. But the result of a d’Hondt allocation varies based on the number of stages in which the voting is performed (President, Vice-President, and Secretaries), so a bias towards disproportionality could exist as measured by the absolute index of disproportionality which calculates the number of seats non-proportionally allocated. The results show that, in view of the hypothesis on the importance of the number of seats, the NE was only followed in four of the 12 Legislatures for Vice-Presidents (it was always followed for Secretaries). Thus, parliamentary groups could gain more seats by modifying their strategies. Additionally, the absolute rate of disproportionality and the number of seats non-proportionally allocated indicate that, in general, parliamentary groups obtain voting results that are less disproportionate than they could be (due to the number of voting stages).

A polygenic score for educational attainment partially predicts voter turnout

Twin and adoption studies have shown that individual differences in political participation can be explained, in part, by genetic variation. However, these research designs cannot identify which genes are related to voting or the pathways through which they exert influence, and their conclusions rely on possibly restrictive assumptions. In this study, we use three different US samples and a Swedish sample to test whether genes that have been identified as associated with educational attainment, one of the strongest correlates of political participation, predict self-reported and validated voter turnout. We find that a polygenic score capturing individuals’ genetic propensity to acquire education is significantly related to turnout. The strongest associations we observe are in second-order midterm elections in the United States and European Parliament elections in Sweden, which tend to be viewed as less important by voters, parties, and the media and thus present a more information-poor electoral environment for citizens to navigate. A within-family analysis suggests that individuals’ education-linked genes directly affect their voting behavior, but, for second-order elections, it also reveals evidence of genetic nurture. Finally, a mediation analysis suggests that educational attainment and cognitive ability combine to account for between 41% and 63% of the relationship between the genetic propensity to acquire education and voter turnout.

Stereotypes of Older Adults, Older Men, and Male Leaders Predict Expectations, Stance, and Voting Intentions

The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election offered a unique opportunity to examine how stereotypes of older adults, older men, and male leaders impact expectations of candidate job performance and intentions to vote for Biden or Trump. This online study involved 500 college students from two universities from September 30th until November 3 (Election Day). A Biden and Trump model were tested for the relationships among (a) stereotypes from public discourse with (b) expectations of candidates/ presidential performance with (c) voting stance (pro- and anti-Biden vs pro- and anti-Trump) and (d) intentions to vote for Biden/Trump. As expected, for the Biden model, endorsement of older adult (lesser endorsement of senile, unhealthy), male leadership (greater endorsement of assertive and collaborative, lesser endorsement of uncaring), and older male stereotypes (greater endorsement of elder statesman and family-focused) predicted greater expectations of Biden’s performance, which predicted pro-Biden and anti-Trump stances and ultimately voting intentions for Biden. As expected, for the Trump model, endorsement of older adult (lesser endorsement of senile), male leadership (greater endorsement of assertive, collaborative, lesser endorsement of immoral and uncaring), and older male stereotypes (greater endorsement of elder statesman) predicted greater expectations of Trump’s performance, which predicted pro-Trump and anti-Biden stances and ultimately voting intentions for Trump. Taken together, these results suggest examining relevant categories of stereotypes associated with candidates and voting stances provides a fuller picture of voting behavior toward multiple candidates vying for office in addition to political ideology and voting intentions.

The Role of Payoff Valence on Voting: Egalitarian for Gains and Selfish for Losses

We study how payoff valence affects voting behavior on the distribution of monetary outcomes framed as gains or losses in a group when using standard plurality voting (PV) procedures and when using approval voting (AV). The latter method allows the subjects to approve of as many alternatives as they wish and has been shown to eliminate the incentives to vote strategically. For both methods, we observe that voters express higher support for egalitarian allocations (and lower support for selfish options) when sharing gains than when sharing losses. Moreover, the average number of approved alternatives per ballot is higher when distributions are framed in terms of gains than when they are framed in terms of losses. We also discuss under which circumstances the shift in voting behavior is more likely to produce changes in the electoral outcome. The results suggest that framing manipulations (payoff valence) can significantly impact voting behavior.