EFFECT OF INSUFFICIENT CURRENCY IN CIRCULATION ON THE RATE OF INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN NIGERIA: THE BUHARI’S ADMINISTRATION EXPERIENCE

This study investigated the effect of insufficient currency in circulation on the rate of inflation and unemployment in Nigeria: The Buhari’s Administration Experience; using annual time-series data ranging from 1985 to 2020. In achieving this task, the study was disaggregated into two models: model 1 utilizing Vector Error Correction Model to analyse the relationship between fiscal variables (government total expenditure, government tax revenue, and export) and unemployment rate. It was revealed from the unit root of Augmented Dickey-Fuller test that none of the (fiscal) variables was stationary at level, but they were all stationary after 1st Differencing. This made it necessary for the study to apply Johansen co-integration test which the estimated result indicated 1 co-integration equation as evidenced by Trace statistic. This also, necessitated the application of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and it was observed that it took 61.71% annual speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium from short-run disequilibrium for unemployment rate to return to equilibrium after a shock to fiscal variables. The results further explained that government total expenditure, and government tax revenue, had negative and insignificant impact on unemployment rate respectively, thereby reducing unemployment rate. Similarly, the estimated result indicated that export had positive impact on unemployment thereby increasing unemployment rate within the period under study. Similarly, in analysing monetary variables (money supply, exchange rate and prime lending rate) in model 2: Phillip-Peron unit root test was conducted and it was confirmed that the variables were of mixed order of integration which necessitated the employment of ARDL technique. The ARDL bounds testing result revealed that a long-run relationship existed between monetary variables, and inflation. It was found, in the long-run, that money supply caused inflation rate to rise. More so, the result further revealed that present level of exchange rate decelerated inflation rate in both long-run and short-run. While, it was further observed that the one-year lag and two-year lag of exchange rate increased rate of inflation in both log-run and short-run respectively. The estimated result further revealed that the present level of prime lending rate minimised the rate of inflation in the long-run and short-run. Whereas, similar results were further confirmed in the one-year lag and two-year lag that prime lending rate reduced inflation rate in both log-run and short-run. As a result of these findings, with respect to model 1; the study recommended that government should maintain the level of its expenditure and tax revenue as this reduced unemployment rate, and it should lower trade costs so that demand for labour would increase in the export industry, this would make aggregate unemployment rate to reduce. With respect to model 2; it recommended the adoption of contractionary monetary policy that would minimise the amount of money supply that caused long-run effect on inflation in the system. Furthermore, there should be proper maintenance of fixed exchange rate policy that will make exchange rate regime overcome non-military forces of demand and supply in exchange rate market, this will help maintain low rate of inflation.

Interest Rate Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and Commercial Banks Earnings in Nigeria

This study examined the interest rates channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the earnings of commercial banks in Nigeria. The objective was to investigate the extent to which the interest rates channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism affects the earnings capacity of the quoted commercial banks. Time series data were sourced from annual financial reports of the commercial banks and the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin’s various issues. Earnings measures such as earnings per share and earnings before interest and tax were modeled as the function of Monetary Policy Rate, Prime Lending Rate, Short-term Savings Rate, Long-term Saving Rate and Maximum Lending Rate. The Ordinary Least Square method of Regression Analysis was used to estimate the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test and Vector Error Correction Test were used to determine the dynamic relationship among the variables. Findings showed that short-term and long-term savings rates have negative effects while monetary policy rate, maximum lending rate and prime lending rate have positive effects on the earnings capacity of Nigerian commercial banks. Therefore, we recommend that interest rate policies should be integrated with the earning objectives of the commercial banks.

COVID 19 and Bank Profitability in Low Income Countries: The Case of Uganda

This study investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on banking sector profitability in Uganda for the period spanning Q1 2000 to Q1 2021, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL Bound) testing approach to co-integration while controlling for bank specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability. Bank profitability is proxied by return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE), and net interest margin (NIM). The study finds that the COVID 19 pandemic has a significant negative effect on bank profitability only in the long run. Generally, the explanatory variables used in the study have short run and long run effects on bank profitability, although the impact is not uniform across the different measures of bank profitability. In the short run, bank profitability is generally negatively and significantly affected by the non-performing loans ratio, liquidity ratio, and market sensitivity risk, while the Treasury Bill interest rate and lending rate have a significant positive effect on bank profitability. In addition, the study finds that bank profitability has a tendency to persist in the short run, although persistence is only moderate, suggesting that the Ugandan banking sector may not have large deviations from a perfectly competitive market structure. In the long run, bank profitability is broadly positively and significantly affected by the non-performing loan ratio;, real GDP, lending rate and Treasury Bill interest rate while market sensitivity risk and the exchange rate significantly and negatively affect bank profitability. Surprisingly, the study finds inflation does not significantly affect bank profitability over both the short- and long-term.

The Relationship between Lending Rate and Nonperforming Loans in Commercial Banks: Evidence from Pakistan (2008-2014)

The objective of the study was to examine the relationship between lending rate and nonperforming loans in commercial banks of Pakistan. The study collects data on bank size and nonperforming loans from the annual reports of commercial banks and lending rates data was collected from the state bank of Pakistan statistical bulletins for the period of 2008-2014 and the data was analyzed through SPSS to examine the relationship between lending rate and nonperforming loans. The study used correlation and regression methods. The study found a significant positive relationship between lending rate and nonperforming loans in commercial banks of Pakistan

Influence of Monetary Policy on The Credit Supply To Small and Medium Scale Enterprises In Nigeria (1993 -2018)

The study examined the effect of monetary policy on credit supply to small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria covering a temporal scope 1993 to 2018. It was modelled by using ratio of credit to SMEs to total credit (CSTC) as dependent variable while monetary policy rate (MPR), liquidity ratio (LQR), lending rate (LDR) and inflation (INF) were the explanatory variables. Secondary data were sourced from CBN Statistical Bulletin and the estimation was done using Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL). The study found that monetary policy has negative and insignificant effects on credit supply to SMEs in the long run while in the short run, monetary policy has though insignificant positive but indirectly a significant positive effect through lending rate on credit available to SMEs. The implication is that, as MPR changes its effects are transmitted through lending rates of commercial banks to SMEs. Hence, the study concluded that monetary policy significantly and heterogeneously impacts on the credit supply to SMEs indirectly through lending rate in Nigeria. It was recommended among others that as the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to implement monetary policy in Nigeria, caution should be taken so that such decisions won’t be detrimental to businesses such as SMEs. In addition, MPR should be further reviewed downward in order to encourage SMEs from assessing more funds in Nigeria. Likewise, a pool of long-term funds should be created By Central Bank of Nigeria to bridge the financing gap of SMEs in Nigeria.

Financial Sector Liberalization and Agricultural Sector Output: Fresh Evidence From Nigeria

This study examined the relationship between financial sector liberalization and agricultural sector output in Nigeria using annual data spanning the period 1986-2020. Specifically, the objectives of the study are to examine the relationship between lending rate, exchange rate, commercial bank credit to agriculture, inflation rate and agricultural sector output in Nigeria. Ex-post facto research design was employed and the annual time series data were collated from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The econometrics methods of unit root, co-integration and error correction mechanism were used for the analyses. The outcome of the ADF unit root test show that the variables were stationary. Also the co-integration result showed that there exist co-integration amongst the variables in the model. The results from Error Correction Model indicates that lending rate and inflation rate have a negative relationship on agricultural sector output while exchange rate and commercial bank credit to agriculture have positive relationship on agricultural sector output. Based on these results, this study recommends that government and policy makers in Nigerian should initial policies that will boost investments in the agricultural sector through direct provision of credits to agriculturist and banks should also lend at a very low and subsidized interest rate to enable farmers’ access agricultural loans that will boost agricultural productivity in the economy.

Meanings Of Weighted Beta Capm Index And Beta Derminants Of Vietcombank In Vietnam During Pre-Low Inflation Time 2011-2016 In The Concept Of Sustainability

The aim of this study is to figure out the meanings of weighted beta index in bank sector and beta determinants of Vietcombank -VCB during pre-low (L) inflation period 2011-2016. In reality Vietcombank has gained many achievements but also there are certain weaknesses. Hung and Liu (2005) tested the volatility of airline betas in the capital asset pricing and three-factor pricing models, as well as exploring the potential factors affecting their values. While Fama and Frech (2004) suggest to add firm size into traditional formula of beta CAPM. The study results tell us that Market risk can increased and This may be caused by the increase in lending rate and decrease in both CPI and G (from our regression OLS). Therefore, governmental agencies need to reduce lending rate and increase GDP growth and not decreasing much CPI.

Multivariate Garch Analysis of Selected Nigerian Economic Data

Aims: The aim of this study is to examine multivariate GARCH modeling of selected Nigerian economic data. Study Design: The study used monthly data of Nigerian crude oil prices (dollar Per Barrel), consumer price Index rural, maximum lending rate and prime lending rate. Methodology: This work covers time series data on crude oil prices, consumer price Index rural, maximum lending rate and prime lending rate extracted from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) from 2000 to 2019. In attempt to achieve the aim of the study, quadrivariate VECH and DCC model were applied. Results: The results confirmed that returns on economic data were correlated. Also, diagonal multivariate VECH model confirmed one of the properties that it must be ‘positive semi-definite’, And the DCC confirmed also the positive-definite conditional-variance. Conclusion: From the results obtained, it was confirmed that there exists a strong confirmation of a time-varying conditional covariance and interdependence among Nigeria economic data. As for cross-volatility effects, past innovations in crude oil price have utmost control on future volatility of returns on economic data. It was also confirmed that time varying covariance displays among these economic data and lower degree of persistence and based on Model selection criteria using the Akaike information criteria (AIC) has 17.485 for diagonal VECH while for DCC has 17.509 AIC which makes VECH model better fitted.

EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON TRADING VOLUMES OF MANUFACTURING AND ALLIED COMPANIES LISTED IN NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE

Purpose: The purpose of the study was to establish the effect of macroeconomic factors on stocks trading volumes of manufacturing and allied companies listed in Nairobi Securities Exchange. Materials and Methods: The research adopted a quantitative descriptive design that focuses on nine manufacturing and allied companies listed in NSE and make up in the list of 25-share index companies. The nine manufacturing and allied companies were selected through purposive sampling techniques, where samples were selected based specific factors. The data used in the research was collected from Central Bank of Kenya, Nairobi Security Exchange and Kenya Bureau of Statistics. This research employed a panel data analysis using STATA software. Treasury bill rate was dropped from the model due to multicollinearity. Results: The analysis found that there was a negative relationship between inflation on trading volume, exchange rate had a negative correlation with stock trading, lending rate had a negative correlation with stock trading volume of manufacturing and allied companies listed in the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study recommends the government should initiate policies that will lower the lending rate in Kenya as lower lending rate may translate to higher stock trading volumes. Further studies should research on other factors affecting stock trade volume which may include the value of the stocks and the information size in the market.