COMPLETE SUBSET AVERAGING FOR QUANTILE REGRESSIONS

We propose a novel conditional quantile prediction method based on complete subset averaging (CSA) for quantile regressions. All models under consideration are potentially misspecified, and the dimension of regressors goes to infinity as the sample size increases. Since we average over the complete subsets, the number of models is much larger than the usual model averaging method which adopts sophisticated weighting schemes. We propose to use an equal weight but select the proper size of the complete subset based on the leave-one-out cross-validation method. Building upon the theory of Lu and Su (2015, Journal of Econometrics 188, 40–58), we investigate the large sample properties of CSA and show the asymptotic optimality in the sense of Li (1987, Annals of Statistics 15, 958–975) We check the finite sample performance via Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications.

P–728 Can in couples with unexplained infertility the use of a prediction model to triage assisted reproduction technology save costs?

Study question Can in couples with unexplained infertility a prognosis-tailored management strategy, that delays treatment if natural conception prospects are good, reduce costs without affecting live-birth rate? Summary answer In couples with unexplained infertility, use of a prognostic tool for natural conception followed by expectant management in good-prognosis couples is cost-effective. What is known already Few countries have guidelines for the assessment of the likelihood of natural conception to determine access to publicly funded ART. In the Netherlands and New-Zealand, couples with unexplained infertility who have a good prognosis for natural conception are encouraged to delay starting ART. However, the cost-effectiveness of this prognosis-tailored treatment strategy has not been determined. Study design, size, duration We studied couples with unexplained infertility to compare a prognosis-tailored strategy to care-as-usual. In the prognosis-tailored strategy, couples were assessed using Hunault’s prediction model. In good-prognosis couples (12-months natural conception >40%), outcomes without ART were modelled by censoring observations after start of ART. We then assumed that poor-prognosis couples (<40% natural conception) were treated, while good-prognosis couples delayed the start of treatment for 12 months. Data for the care-as-usual model were based on real observations. Participants/materials, setting, methods We studied 272 couples with unexplained infertility. Costs of in vitro fertilisation (IVF) and intra-uterine insemination (IUI) were calculated based on the out-of-pocket costs and Australian Medicare costs. In a cost-effectiveness model, we compared costs and effects of both strategies. Main results and the role of chance The prognostic model classified 272 couples with unexplained infertility as favourable (N = 107 (39.3%) or unfavourable prognosis (N = 165 (60.7%)) for natural conception. In the prognosis-tailored strategy, the cumulative live-birth rate was 71.1% (95% CI 64.7% - 76.4%) while the number of ART cycles was 393 (353 IVF; 40 IUI). In care-as-usual strategy, the cumulative conception rate leading to live-birth for the cohort of 272 couples, who underwent a total of 398 IVF cycles and 48 IUI cycles, was 72.1% (95% CI 65.7% - 77.4%). Mean time to conception leading to live birth was 388 days in the prognosis-tailored strategy and 419 days in the care-as-usual strategy. This translated for the 272 couples into potential savings of 45 IVF cycles and eight IUI cycles, which cost a total of AUD$ 125,817 for out-of-pocket and AUD$ 264,497 for Australian Medicare. The average cost savings per couple was AUD$ 1,435 (out-of-pocket AUD$ 463 per couple and Australian Medicare AUD$ 962 per couple). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, which was calculated as the total costs per additional live-births, was AUD$ 143,497 per additional live birth. Limitations, reasons for caution This study was limited to couples at a single IVF clinic. The modelling was also based on several key assumptions, particularly the number of fresh and frozen embryo transfer cycles for each couple. Wider implications of the findings: Our results show that in couples with unexplained infertility the use of a prognostic model guiding the start of an IVF-treatment reduces costs without compromising live birth rates. Trial registration number Not applicable

Informed Geoheritage Conservation: Determinant Analysis Based on Bibliometric and Sustainability Indicators Using Ordination Techniques

Ordination methods are used in ecological multivariate statistics in order to reduce the number of dimensions and arrange individual variables along environmental variables. Geoheritage designation is a new challenge for conservation planning. Quantification of geoheritage to date is used explicitly for site selection, however, it also carries significant potential to be one of the indicators of sustainable development that is delivered through geosystem services. In order to achieve such a dominant position, geoheritage needs to be included in the business as usual model of conservation planning. Questions about the quantification process that have typically been addressed in geoheritage studies can be answered more directly by their relationships to world development indicators. We aim to relate the major informative geoheritage practices to underlying trends of successful geoheritage implementation through statistical analysis of countries with the highest trackable geoheritage interest. Correspondence analysis (CA) was used to obtain information on how certain indicators bundle together. Multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) was used to detect sets of factors to determine positive geoheritage conservation outcomes. The analysis resulted in ordination diagrams that visualize correlations among determinant variables translated to links between socio-economic background and geoheritage conservation outcomes. Indicators derived from geoheritage-related academic activity and world development metrics show a shift from significant Earth science output toward disciplines of strong international agreement such as tourism, sustainability and biodiversity. Identifying contributing factors to conservation-related decisions helps experts to tailor their proposals for required evidence-based quantification reports and reinforce the scientific significance of geoheritage.

Lower reversal limit of the European Central Bank deposit rate and sustainability of traditional banking business model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical analysis of the European Central Bank (ECB) deposit rate dynamics during 2014–2020, attempting to answer how deep could be cut further this rate without causing persistent yield curve inversions (YCI), i.e. lower yields for longer terms. It addresses the sustainability of the traditional banking and shows that inverted yield curves would require changing the banking-as-usual model to the government-guaranteed long-term-borrowing coupled with short-term-lending. This research poses the question of whether the banking sector should become a public utility. Design/methodology/approach The future scenarios of negative interest rate (NIR) behavior are modeled seeking to increase the understanding of NIR environment. Using an event-study design, empirical analyses of the ECB deposit rate cuts on the Euro Over-Night Index Average rates is performed at different maturities. Findings This study finds that, starting from the lower limit of 80 basis points below zero, the ECB deposit rate is likely to result in complete YCIs. Social implications This paper evidences that moving rates into a more negative territory is likely to be completely counterproductive for banking industry, implying that banking at such conditions would become heavily dependent on governmental support. The results shed light on the interdependence of the banking business, financial monetary policy and welfare of the society, providing policymakers with empirically defined milestones for policy implementations. Originality/value This paper clarifies the impact of the ECB deposit rate on the overall shape of yield curves. The novelty of this research resides in investigation of YCI by simulating NIR dynamics.

Comparative Study of Open Frame Structure Modeling with Diagonal Bracing at the Integrated Laboratory of Institut Teknologi Kalimantan

Generally, brick wall (hebel) is considered as non-structural element, which never be counted to bear structural load. But, if carefully calculated, brick walls take part in structure load bearing. In the purpose of reducing the main structural element properties, the brick wall needs to be considered in bearing structural load. In this article, the brick walls modelled as compressive bracings. Using the structure analysis program, the model showed some significant differences in terms of internal force. From the analysis, the differences of moment, shear, axial and torsional force between open frame model (usual model, OF) and compressive bracing (CB) model were 38.17 kN.m; 58.03 kN; 181.75 kN dan 44.18 kN.m, respectively, where the first model had the bigger numbers than the latter model. Displacement of OF model was quite larger than CB model, with the value of difference was up to 85.35% for the X direction structures, and 70.83% for the Y direction. Final properties used for the design are smaller compared than original design, 30/60 to 40/60 for the beams, 50/50 for the columns with the different reinforcements 16-D22 for the second model compared to 20-D22 for the first one. The depth of slab on the second model was 180 mm, slightly smaller than the first model, 190 mm. It can be concluded that using compressive bracing model, structural properties of ITK Integrated Laboratory Building may greatly be reduced, compared to OF model.

AV futures or futures with AVs? Bridging sociotechnical imaginaries and a multi-level perspective of autonomous vehicle visualisations in praxis

Current depictions of autonomous vehicle (AV) futures are produced primarily by automobile manufacturers that largely reflect and reinforce existing sociotechnical systems in a ‘business as usual’ model that frames this technology within a narrative of crisis and technological salvation. This article argues for a more complex analysis of AV futures in which images are understood as vessels for sociotechnical imaginaries that direct and delimit what we think is possible in the future. Through an analytical framework incorporating automobility, transitions, and imaginaries, I explore how depictions of AVs frame the technology as responding to various system pressures over time through a comparative analysis of two actors. The analysis suggests that regime actors deploy visual discursive material as a tool of regime stability or change to benefit their own agendas. The intention of the article is not to anticipate current trajectories but is a methodological exploration of how policymakers and planners can interpret AV visualisations. Therefore, the paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these imaginaries for future transportation systems. It further suggests that policymakers and planners need to take a more active role in the development of AV futures by paying much more attention to the latent meanings behind AV visualisations and working collaboratively with those who produce them.

Analysing Road Traffic Situation in Lilongwe: An Agent Based Modelling (ABM) Approach

A 15, 451 km road network forms the main mode of transport for Malawi with 26 % paved. With increasing number of vehicles and elongated travel times during rush hour the study analysed the traffic situation on the M1 road between Mchinji and Area 18 roundabouts in Lilongwe City using an agent-based model (ABM). The methodology used game theory’s traffic grip model to analyse traffic flow by controlling traffic variables such as lights, speed limits and the number of vehicles. Each intersection was treated as non-cooperative game where each agent tried to minimize its queue resulting into Q−Nash’s equilibrium as the solution. The ABM tested the empirical relationships of traffic flow parameters in terms of density, flow, acceleration, deceleration, speed, time lost in traffic congestion and fuel consumption. The model was calibrated using traffic data collected through observing 1,312 vehicles sampled against 24,977. The observation results from the road junctions reveal that on average, a vehicle takes 20 mins 18 seconds, 37 minutes 6 seconds, 44 minutes 21 seconds and 58 minutes 53 seconds to exit Chitukuko, Bwandilo, Chilambula roads and Area 18 roundabout respectively upon entering the M1 at Mchinji roundabout. This data was then used to calibrate the business-as-usual model for the peak hour scenario for the road junctions. The model results show that a selected vehicle entering Chitukuko junction travels at an average speed of 22.60 km/hr, until it exits that junction. On average the selected motorists spend 2.52 l/km with a traffic density of 72 v/km. If dualized average speeds improved to 41.54 km/hr while the traffic density declined to 54.42 v/km, saving motorists MK 3,921,624.00 annually. The predictive model of the dual carriage informed that by 2021, commuters will spend MK 5,187,168 on fuel more than single-lane business as usual scenario of 2019.

Study of the SCL-90 Scale and Changes in the Chinese Norms

Objective: This study aimed to investigate the Chinese norms for the Symptom Checklist 90 (SCL-90) scale and its application.Methods: In total, 7,489 adults from Tianjin and Qingdao in China were included. Their data were compared with the norm data of 1,388 people published by Jin et al., the combined norms published by Tang et al., the data of 2,808 adults published by Chen and Li, and the data of 1,890 adults from Tong in China.Results: In five different periods, notable changes were observed in each factor of the SCL-90 that significantly differed from the previous norms. The scores of each factor showed an increasing annual trend. Compulsion consistently obtained the highest scores, and phobia consistently obtained the lowest scores. The scores tended to decrease from compulsion to anxiety, and psychosis scored lower than paranoia. There was a significant difference in the detection rate between the critical screening value of two points and the standard score. Using the standard score as the critical value, the detection rate ranged between 13 and 16% and was relatively concentrated. Using two points as the critical value, the detection rate ranged between 38 and 50%.Conclusion: The usual model in China is not consistent with social development. Using two points as the critical value is no longer suitable for the SCL-90. New Chinese norms and measurement standards should be developed. The mean value plus one standard deviation could be used as the new measurement standard.

The Early Modern Period

A viola da gamba made by John Rose in London c.1600 offers a focal point for setting in place five distinct frames for thinking about music in the early modern period: (1) ontology, (2) metaphysics, (3) physics, (4) rhetoric, and (5) ethics. Aristotle’s Categories provided early modern thinkers with a model for regarding Rose’s viol ontologically, as a physical object that could be used in certain ways for certain purposes. The metaphysics of a viol consisted in its being a stringed instrument capable of sounding out the ratios of cosmic harmony. Scientific attention turned to the physics of a viol and the vibrations it produced. Rhetoric as codified in the writings of Cicero and Quintilian was the usual model for investigating the emotional effects of music. Ethical considerations of music made social and moral distinctions among kinds of instruments, the people who played them, and social circumstances of performance and reception.

Optimizing household energy planning in smart cities: A multiobjective approach

This article presents the advances in the design and implementation of a recommendation system for planning the use of household appliances, focused on improving energy efficiency from the point of view of both energy companies and end-users. The system proposes using historical information and data from sensors to define instances of the planning problem considering user preferences, which in turn are proposed to be solved using a multiobjective evolutionary approach, in order to minimize energy consumption and maximize quality of service offered to users. Promising results are reported on realistic instances of the problem, compared with situations where no intelligent energy planning are used (i.e., ‘Bussiness as Usual’ model) and also with a greedy algorithm developed in the framework of the reference project. The proposed evolutionary approach was able to improve up to 29.0% in energy utilization and up to 65.3% in user preferences over the reference methods.