Vertex Fitting

The methods used for vertex fitting are closely related to the ones used in track fitting. The chapter describes least-squares estimators as well as robust and adaptive estimators. Furthermore, it is shown how the vertex fit can be extended to a kinematic fit by imposing additional constraints on the tracks participating in the fit.

Doubly robust nonparametric inference on the average treatment effect

Summary Doubly robust estimators are widely used to draw inference about the average effect of a treatment. Such estimators are consistent for the effect of interest if either one of two nuisance parameters is consistently estimated. However, if flexible, data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters are used, double robustness does not readily extend to inference. We present a general theoretical study of the behaviour of doubly robust estimators of an average treatment effect when one of the nuisance parameters is inconsistently estimated. We contrast different methods for constructing such estimators and investigate the extent to which they may be modified to also allow doubly robust inference. We find that while targeted minimum loss-based estimation can be used to solve this problem very naturally, common alternative frameworks appear to be inappropriate for this purpose. We provide a theoretical study and a numerical evaluation of the alternatives considered. Our simulations highlight the need for and usefulness of these approaches in practice, while our theoretical developments have broad implications for the construction of estimators that permit doubly robust inference in other problems.

Super-Learning of an Optimal Dynamic Treatment Rule

We consider the estimation of an optimal dynamic two time-point treatment rule defined as the rule that maximizes the mean outcome under the dynamic treatment, where the candidate rules are restricted to depend only on a user-supplied subset of the baseline and intermediate covariates. This estimation problem is addressed in a statistical model for the data distribution that is nonparametric, beyond possible knowledge about the treatment and censoring mechanisms. We propose data adaptive estimators of this optimal dynamic regime which are defined by sequential loss-based learning under both the blip function and weighted classification frameworks. Rather than a priori selecting an estimation framework and algorithm, we propose combining estimators from both frameworks using a super-learning based cross-validation selector that seeks to minimize an appropriate cross-validated risk. The resulting selector is guaranteed to asymptotically perform as well as the best convex combination of candidate algorithms in terms of loss-based dissimilarity under conditions. We offer simulation results to support our theoretical findings.

Entering the Era of Data Science: Targeted Learning and the Integration of Statistics and Computational Data Analysis

This outlook paper reviews the research of van der Laan’s group on Targeted Learning, a subfield of statistics that is concerned with the construction of data adaptive estimators of user-supplied target parameters of the probability distribution of the data and corresponding confidence intervals, aiming at only relying on realistic statistical assumptions. Targeted Learning fully utilizes the state of the art in machine learning tools, while still preserving the important identity of statistics as a field that is concerned with both accurate estimation of the true target parameter value and assessment of uncertainty in order to make sound statistical conclusions. We also provide a philosophical historical perspective on Targeted Learning, also relating it to the new developments in Big Data. We conclude with some remarks explaining the immediate relevance of Targeted Learning to the current Big Data movement.

ADAPTIVE NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION WITH CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY

In this paper, we study adaptive nonparametric regression estimation in the presence of conditional heteroskedastic error terms. We demonstrate that both the conditional mean and conditional variance functions in a nonparametric regression model can be estimated adaptively based on the local profile likelihood principle. Both the one-step Newton–Raphson estimator and the local profile likelihood estimator are investigated. We show that the proposed estimators are asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible local likelihood estimators [e.g., Aerts and Claeskens (1997) Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 1536–1545], which require knowledge of the error distribution. Simulation evidence suggests that when the distribution of the error term is different from Gaussian, the adaptive estimators of both conditional mean and variance can often achieve significant efficiency over the conventional local polynomial estimators.