Optimal vaccine strategy to control COVID-19 pandemic in middle-income countries: Modelling case study of Thailand

Thailand is facing the dilemma of which groups to prioritise for the limited first tranche of vaccinations in 2021. A mathematical modelling analysis was performed to compare the potential short-term impact of allocating the available doses to either the high-risk group (over 65-year-olds) or the high incidence group (aged 20-39). Vaccinating the high incidence group with a vaccine with sufficiently high protection against infection (more than 50%) could provide enough herd effects to delay the expected epidemic peak, resulting in fewer deaths within the 12-month time horizon compared to vaccinating the same number of the high-risk group. After 12 months, if no further vaccination or other interventions were deployed, this strategy would lead to more deaths. With the right vaccine efficacy profile, targeting the high incidence groups could be a viable short-term component of the Thai vaccination strategy. These results and emerging evidence on vaccines and susceptibility suggest prioritisation guidelines should be more nuanced.

Group Fines: Technique for Behavioral Control in a Token Economy

Group fines were used to control the alcohol-related misbehavior of skid row alcoholics living and working in a hospital token-economy ward. When only the individual was fined there was a high incidence of unauthorized drinking and elopement. Institution of group fines wherein the offender was fined and an equivalent fine was levied against all other Ss led to a decrease in serious offenses to one-fifth of the previous incidence. Group fines appeared to be an effective method of mobilizing social pressure for this population.