Analysis on Reliability of Load Test on Bearing Capacity of Foundation Piles

In static load test, most of piles do not destroy, the piles still exist capacity, which reduce the reliability index of pile foundation. This paper employs Bayesian Statistic method to update the measured capacity of piles. Meanwhile, based on updating data, the reliability index is calculated considering the destruction of piles. The case study shows that the reliability index of capacity becomes large when the time of pile destruction increases. Therefore, when judging the safety of pile foundation, it is highly necessary to consider the influence of pile destruction on reliability of piles.

Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.