scholarly journals Popular indicators of the crisis in financial markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (4) ◽  
pp. 34-44
Author(s):  
Dmitry Kornilov ◽  
Elena Kornilova
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Incentives ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Black Swan ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
The Us ◽  
Total Market

The article provides an overview of the factors that ensure the growth of the US stock market despite the fact that a number of popular indicators signal the opposite. The dynamics of indicators (Total Market Cap) / GDP, (Total Market Cap) / (GDP + Total Assets of Fed) and P/E, Shiller P/E ratios are presented. According to Buffett’s Total Market Cap / GDP indicator, the stock market is now “significantly overvalued” and the Shiller P/E ratio has surpassed the “Great Depression” period. At the same time, an increase in the amount of money in circulation as a result of the implementation of Quantitative easing (QE) programs of the FRS, inflation risk and a decrease in the profitability of investments in alternative assets (government and corporate bonds) are forcing investors to stay in stocks and continue to build up positions despite the increase risks and a decrease in potential profitability in the future. The growth of the US stock market is also stimulated by the buyback programs of companies and the inflow of foreign capital. In 2020, there was a V-shaped recovery in the economy, and an absolute record for the amount of funds raised was set in the IPO market. Thanks to financial incentives, the stock market will continue to grow even despite the pandemic and overvalued assets, but the notorious “black swan” may become the “trigger” for the start of the crisis in the financial markets.

Measuring Dependence Between the USA and the Asian Economies: A Time-varying Copula Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 962-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shegorika Rajwani ◽  
Dilip Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Copula Approach

During the past few years, many of the financial markets have gone through devastating effects due to the crisis in one or the other economy of the world. The recent global financial crisis has triggered dramatic movements in various stock markets which may arise from interdependence or contagion between the markets. This article attempts to measure the contagion between the equity markets of Asia and the US stock market. The countries considered in the Asian group are China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan. Most of the Asian economies have experienced drastic higher volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets. If the markets are contagious, then the investors will be unable to reap benefits through international diversification of the portfolio. In such a case, the policymakers will further frame policies so that they can insulate themselves from inflicting heavy damage from various crises. To achieve our goal, we make use of the time-varying copula approach which helps us to study the joint behaviour of the series based on their marginal distribution. Time-varying copula approach can also capture the non-linear dependence in the series and exhibits a rich pattern of tail behaviour. Our findings support the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US stock market during the global financial crisis. This article also highlights that the increased tail dependence is an important factor for the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US market.

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF G7 AND CHINESE STOCK MARKET RETURNS DURING COVID-19 OUTBREAK

2020 ◽  
Vol S.I. (1) ◽  
pp. 256-266
Author(s):  
Ahmed JERIBI ◽  
◽  
Mohamed FAKHFEKH ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Hedging Strategies ◽  
The Us

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the determinants of G7, and Chinese stock market returns during the COVID-19 outbreak. We find that Bitcoin and Ethereum can generate benefits from portfolio diversification and hedging strategies for G7 financial investors in early 2020. Our result reveals that Gold is neither hedge nor haven during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the results indicated that the expected volatility of the US stock market has no effect on the Japanese and Chinese financial markets. Finally, our results suggest that the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths has an impact only on the US stock market.

scholarly journals Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy: quantitative easing, spreads, and international financial markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zekeriya Yildirim ◽  
Mehmet Ivrendi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
International Financial Markets ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Us

AbstractThis study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy (UMP)—frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing (QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies, using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data. Blinder (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Rev 92(6): 465–479, 2010) argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads, such as term and risk premiums. Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence, we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP: the mortgage and term spreads. Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries, our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risk-taking behavior of investors. This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world. The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures. QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread. Furthermore, the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

ECB QE and growth may obscure Polish political risk

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Inconclusive Result ◽  
The Us

Significance Having fallen against the resurgent dollar this year, the zloty has lately been strengthening, since the US Federal Reserve surprised financial markets by striking a more dovish stance than expected on both the timing and pace of the anticipated tightening in monetary policy. While the zloty and Polish stocks had suffered because of fears of a rise in US interest rates, local bonds have been underpinned by the ECB's quantitative easing (QE) programme. The effects of QE and a brisker economic recovery may temporarily offset the risk of an inconclusive result in the parliamentary election in October. Impacts Investors have yet to price in the risk of a hung parliament in Poland following October's election. The vote could lead to the formation of a weak and unstable coalition government. The risk of an unstable coalition is particularly high, given the strong likelihood that PO's share of the vote will decline sharply.

Vaccines will drive financial markets over US politics

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Divided Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

Significance Divided government provides scope for volatility at a perilous time for the pandemic-ravaged US economy, but markets are putting greater weight on the prospect of a vaccine accelerating the global recovery. Tech stocks have fallen as investors take their gains and opt for 'reflation trades' predicated on a recovery in sectors hit hard by the pandemic. Impacts Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Facebook make up over 20% of the US stock market; firm fundamentals guard against a sharp sell-off. China’s renminbi has risen to the highest to the dollar since the US-China tariff battle ramped up in early 2018; more strength is likely. China’s export orders grew only marginally in October and import growth slowed, signposting that the world trade recovery could plateau.

scholarly journals The Spillover and Transmission of Chinese Financial Markets Risk

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 66
Author(s):  
Sha Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Financial Stress Index

After the 2008 financial crisis, the whole world financial markets became more fluctuates, the same to China also. It is necessary to pay great attention to high volatility problem in Chinese market, and also the uncertainty problem, risk accumulation and spillover effect come along with it. This paper calculates stock market return and builds financial stress index to explore the risk spillover effect. Empirical results show that the Chinese financial market have higher volatility than other countries. The Chinese stock market had higher dynamic market co-movement with international financial markets after 2008 financial crisis. What’s more, this article also finds the financial risk spreads between China and US. When the US financial stress index increases, China's financial stress index experiences a larger increase. However, after the change in China's financial stress index, the US financial stress index has no obvious trend of change. So we should pay more attention to periods of Chinese financial market risk and its spillover.

Risk and Equity Market Weakness: Their Implications for the World Economy

2001 ◽  
Vol 178 ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Initial Reaction ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Stock Market Valuations

The terrorist attack on New York on 11 September 2001 caused considerable disruption to the US economy, and especially to the US financial markets. The initial reaction of the financial markets was to increase the discount factor on future profits and reduce future profit projections, and hence stock market valuations fell markedly, as can be seen from charts 1 and 2. This fall has been largely reversed since the attack, but markets have in general continued their decline from their peaks a year or so ago. Falls have been particularly precipitate since July 2001, with the German and French stock market indices falling by 20 per cent over the last three months, whilst the Canadian markets have fallen even more. Stock market falls of the scale we have seen since July are almost bound to impact on the level of economic activity in the major economies. They are likely to reduce the rate of growth of the world economy over the medium term as well as change the structure of saving and investment.

The Economic Foundations of Contemporary Imperialism

2007 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 121-142
Author(s):  
François Chesnais
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Main Channel ◽  
Precise Form ◽  
Surplus Value ◽  
Us Imperialism ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Foundations

AbstractThis paper argues that present-day imperialism is strongly related to the domination of a precise form of capital, namely highly concentrated interest- and dividend-bearing money-capital which operates in financial markets, breeds today's pervasive fetishism of money, but is totally dependent on surplus-value and production. Two mechanisms ensure the appropriation and/or production of surplus-product and its centralisation to the world system's financial hubs. In the 1980s, foreign debt prevailed. Foreign production and profit repatriation by TNCs now represent the main channel. Following the transfer abroad of part of its production by US TNCs, the issue for the US in their relations with the rest of the world is not the commercialisation of surplus through exports, but dependency on imports and, more crucially, on large inflows of money-capital to support the stock market, buy T-bonds and refinance mortgage. This new dependency helps to explain the 'paradox' that US imperialism is increasingly forced to try and offset this through extra-economic and even military coercion where it can.

scholarly journals Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007–2008

2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus K Brunnermeier
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Great Depression ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Credit Crunch ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Great Depression

The financial market turmoil in 2007 and 2008 has led to the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression and threatens to have large repercussions on the real economy. The bursting of the housing bubble forced banks to write down several hundred billion dollars in bad loans caused by mortgage delinquencies. At the same time, the stock market capitalization of the major banks declined by more than twice as much. While the overall mortgage losses are large on an absolute scale, they are still relatively modest compared to the $8 trillion of U.S. stock market wealth lost between October 2007, when the stock market reached an all-time high, and October 2008. This paper attempts to explain the economic mechanisms that caused losses in the mortgage market to amplify into such large dislocations and turmoil in the financial markets, and describes common economic threads that explain the plethora of market declines, liquidity dry-ups, defaults, and bailouts that occurred after the crisis broke in summer 2007.

scholarly journals IS U.S. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR IN A BUBBLE?

2017 ◽  
pp. 379-394
Author(s):  
Sebastjan Strasek ◽  
Tadej Kelc
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Technology Sector ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Current State ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
The U.S

The paper is examines the issue if the U.S. technology sector is in the bubble. Our analysis is based on the study of relative indicators, especially on price-to-earnings ratio. We studied the last two historic bubbles and analyzed the current state on the U.S. stock market. We find that U.S. stock market is heavily overvalued, which can be argued with high values of the relative indicators compared to the historical average. Some of them indicate that market was valued higher only during the Great Depression in 1929 and during the technological bubble in 2000. Remarkably high values are the result of low interest rates and quantitative easing. The current expansive monetary policy is encouraging risky businesses and increasing margin debt. With potential abatement of tax rates and other measures of expansive fiscal politics, stock markets could reach even higher values.

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