Is There a Change in the Money Demand Stability in Turkey? A Nonlinear Approach

The details of a central bank’s monetary policy are based on assumptions about the money demand. This requires researches that aim to investigate money demand dynamics. Knowing these dynamics will support the identification of risks that may pose a threat to price stability in the long run. This study aims to analyze the changes observed in the demand for money during the last 35 years (1986-2020) in Turkey. When the analyzing period is considered as a whole in the study, it is determined that the demand for money is not stable. However, the nonlinear cointegration analysis used within the framework of soft transition models indicates that the money demand model can be divided into two different regimes with stability. In this case, it is possible to talk about the existence of a transition period in which stability is lost in the demand for money. The analyzing technique used allows the coefficients obtained for money demand to change over time according to the regime in which the economy operates. Nonlinear estimation results indicate that there is a long-term relationship between the demand for money and its macroeconomic determinants such as price level, income, interest rate, and money holding preferences of economic agents.

Money Demand Balances and Exchange Rate in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate on the money demand balances in Pakistan by applying linear and non-linear ARDL approach. The purpose of study is not only examining the impact of exchange rate and demand for money but also to analyze that whether demand for money in Pakistan is stable or not. For the estimation of money demand function yearly data are used from the 1972 to 2019. The findings of linear ARDL suggest that exchange rate and demand for money balances are positively related. Moreover, Non-linear ARDL exhibit that positive and negative shocks in exchange rate have mixed findings for money demand while asymmetric test shows that exchange rate has symmetric effects for money demand. Stability test suggest the stable money demand in Pakistan.

Determinants and Stability of Money Demand during Financial Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Uganda using an ARDL Approach

We analyse the determinants and stability of Uganda’s real money demand function during financial liberalization. The study contributes to literature in 4 ways, i.e.: assessing the determinants and stability of Uganda’s money demand function for the financial liberalization period; this is also done while incorporating the presumably disruptive financial innovations; assessing Uganda’s money demand stability during this episode; and applying the ARDL estimation strategy on Uganda’s Monetary Policy. GDP, exchange rate, inflation, interest rate spread and foreign interest rate explain Uganda’s real money demand. The results confirm the existence of a stable long run money demand function. The error correction term is significant and negative. Fundamentally, the financial innovations have not caused structural divergence in Uganda’s long run money demand function as would have been expected. Income is significant and close to unity and therefore a good money demand indicator in both the short and long run. Most importantly, financial innovation efforts in Uganda’s monetary policy should be intensified since they haven’t had negative effects on monetary stability. Keywords: money demand, stability, financial liberalization, financial innovations JEL Classification: E41; E52; E6; O23

Economic Uncertainty and Money Demand Stability in Uganda during Financial Liberalization: A GARCH and ARDL Approach

This paper examines the impact of economic uncertainty on money demand stability in Uganda during financial liberalization. First, an economic uncertainty index is created using the Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity method to measure uncertainty. Secondly, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag methodology is used to estimate three risk-augmented monetary aggregates: base money, broad money and broad money . The results show that economic uncertainty has no effect on real base money and real broad money in the short run; but has a negative effect on real broad money . However, economic uncertainty negatively affects all monetary aggregates after one quarter. This is because economic agents diversify their portfolio from just holding money, into other forms like: long term accounts; foreign accounts; treasury bills and bonds; property; mortgages and land. The three money demand balances are also stable.