Symmetric and Asymmetric Causal Relationship between Oil Prices and G7 Stock Markets: A Bootstrap Rolling-Window Granger Causality Test

This study examines the causal relationships between oil prices and the MSCI stock index of G7 countries between September 2004 and October 2020. This study is novel in implementing symmetric and asymmetric time-varying causality tests based on the bootstrap rolling-window approach. The results reveal that the causal link between oil prices and G7 stock markets is time-dependent. The periods of bidirectional causality roughly coincide with the global financial crisis and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. When asymmetry is accounted for, the results suggest an asymmetric causality between the two markets expressed by different patterns regarding positive and negative oil shocks. The results also indicate symmetric causality during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have implications for portfolio design and hedging strategies that are important to both policymakers and investors.

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and Environmental Consequences

We empirically investigate the effect of the <i>Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership</i> on the per capita emissions of eight air pollutants and municipal waste. By introducing the same explanatory variables and applying the same empirical strategy and methodologies as in Qirjo and Pascalau (2019), we provide robust evidence suggesting that the implementation of the partnership could be beneficial to the environment because it may reduce per capita emissions of CH₄, hydrofluorocarbons/ perfluorinated chemicals/ SF₆, N₂O, NH₃, and SF₆ for a typical partnership member. This result is based on statistically significant evidence showing that, on average, the pollution haven motive based on national per capita income variations is dominated by the factor endowment argument based on the Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory and the pollution haven motive originating from an inverse measurement of national population density differences. However, we also report statistically significant evidence that the implementation of the partnership could denigrate the environment by increasing per capita emissions of SO₂ and municipal waste.

Economic Globalization, Entrepreneurship, and Inclusive Growth in Africa

An increasing number of studies are examining the relationship between entrepreneurship and growth. This relationship is controversial, especially for developing countries. Recent improvements in economic growth have led to a focus on growth inclusiveness, which spreads economic opportunities throughout a society. However, studies that focus on the role of entrepreneurship in inclusive growth remain scarce. To fill that gap, this study investigates the dynamic relationship between economic globalization, entrepreneurship, and inclusive growth in 21 African countries using panel econometrics to examine data covering 2006 to 2018. The results reveal that the impact of economic globalization and entrepreneurship on inclusive growth is positive and significant. We find that economic globalization enhances entrepreneurial development, and causality tests show that economic globalization drives inclusive growth. We also find a unidirectional causality from entrepreneurship to inclusive growth. Finally, we observe no direction of causality between economic globalization and entrepreneurship but observe a bidirectional causality between governance and entrepreneurship. We discuss the implications of these results.

Effect of Productive Capacities on Economic Complexity: Do Aid for Trade Flows Matter?

This is the first study to examine the effect of productive capacities on economic complexity and understand whether the Aid for Trade (AfT) flows is important for this effect in recipient countries. The analysis uses a sample of 126 developed and developing countries for 2002-2018 and adopts the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments approach. Results show that strengthening productive capacities enhances economic complexity. Furthermore, productive capacities and total AfT flows are strongly complementary in positively affecting economic complexity, and the degree of complementarity is higher for poor countries than for other AfT-recipient countries. Similarly, productive capacities are strongly complementary with total Non-AfT flows, as well as for total development aid. These findings highlight the need for scaling-up development aid flows, notably AfT flows, in favor of developing countries and poor countries having the lowest levels of productive capacities.

Impact of Backward Linkages and Domestic Contents of Exports on Labor Productivity and Employment: Evidence from Japanese Industrial Data

This study examines how backward linkages (foreign value added [FVA] exports) and domestic value-added (DVA) exports impact industry-level labor productivity and employment in Japan by estimating a static and dynamic panel model using data drawn from the World Input-Output Dataset and Socio-Economic Accounts. We find that the domestic content of trade is a key driver of productivity and employment in Japan for all industries, while backward linkages lead to declining productivity and foster labor displacement. A sectoral analysis reveals that productivity benefits most of the backward linkages and domestic value-added exports in the manufacturing industry but weakens as the backward linkages increase in the service industry. We find that the DVA exports variable promotes employment, whereas the FVA variable displaces it.

Export Restrictions and COVID-19

As a result of COVID-19, the export of medical goods has been subject to various global restrictions. Consequently, several countries have increased the supply of medical goods to alleviate the effects of this health crisis. This study entails a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of such remedial measures. To this end, we have utilized a consistent conjectural variation in a three-country model entailing firms competing in two reciprocal markets in Cournot. When the restrictions are unilateral, the number of medical goods available in the exporting country tends to increase, culminating in better management of the pandemic. In contrast, bilateral restrictions typically reduce the total output of medical goods; therefore, they are inappropriate in a pandemic situation.

Stock Market Reactions to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership’s Approval: Evidence from Vietnam

We examine the stock market performance of Vietnam’s listed firms in response to the country’s approval of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Employing an event study methodology, we first calculate the abnormal returns of all listed Vietnamese firms around the CPTPP’s approval date. Then, we attempt to link these abnormal returns to firms’ characteristics. We find evidence that the announcement of the CPTPP’s approval is associated with positive abnormal returns for Vietnam’s listed firms. We also find considerable heterogeneity in the magnitude and pace of the impacts of the CPTPP’s approval on market returns across Vietnam’s two stock exchanges. However, we fail to reject the null hypothesis that the market did not react to the CPTPP’s approval at the sectoral level.

Impact of FTA on Trade in ASEAN and Australia Using Customs Level Data

This study examines the impact of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) on Australian trade with a particular focus on imports from ASEAN member countries to Australia. We examine the AANZFTA’s utilization by ten ASEAN countries at the six-digit trade classification level from 2012 to 2016 using Australian customs data. We implement Ando and Urata’s (2018) and Hayakawa et al.’s (2014) framework of free trade agreement (FTA) utilization based on preferential tariff margins. We also account for overlapping FTAs that are likely to impact the AANZFTA’s utilization. The results indicate that preferential tariff margins positively impact FTA utilization. However, the results also indicate that the AANZFTA’s utilization rate across ASEAN countries is low relative to Australia’s bilateral FTAs with Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore. We also find evidence that co-sharing rules of origin positively impact FTA utilization.

Determinants of German and Japanese Exports: A Comparative Study

This study investigates the determinants of German and Japanese exports in a comparative fashion. By estimating an autoregressive distributed lag model for each country, we find that the income elasticity of Japanese exports is three times as large as that of Germany’s exports. This relative insensitivity to external demand explains why Germany has maintained its export growth whereas Japanese exports started to stagnate after the global financial crisis. Because Germany adopted the euro in 1999, it was able to maintain large trade surpluses. If Germany had instead kept the Deutsche Mark (DM), the DM would have appreciated owing to the Central Bank of Germany’s consistent preference for a tight monetary policy, and Germany’s trade surpluses would have dissipated. A sharp increase in Japanese foreign direct investment after 2011 has also played a role in reducing Japanese exports after the global financial crisis.

Global Value Chain Participation, Competition, and Markups: Evidence from Ethiopian Manufacturing Firms

This study uses detailed manufacturing census panel data for 2000 to 2014 to explore the relationship between Ethiopian firms’ global value chain (GVC) participation and markups. We find that GVC firms, defined as firms involved in both exporting and importing intermediate inputs, tend to have lower markups relative to non-trading firms and firms that are involved only in material imports. Moreover, the more intensely a firm is integrated into a GVC (measured by the share of export value added and imported inputs in total sales), the lower its markup is. Finally, we explore competition effects at the industry level and find that firms operating in industries with a relatively high GVC presence and suppliers selling inputs to such industries tend to have lower markups owing to horizontal competition and backward linkages, respectively. All of these findings suggest that GVC participation is associated with greater competition for Ethiopian firms.