Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models

Joint encounter (JE) models estimate demographic rates using live recapture and dead recovery data. The extent to which limited recapture or recovery data can hinder estimation in JE models is not completely understood. Yet limited data are common in ecological research. We designed a series of simulations using Bayesian multistate JE models that spanned a large range of potential recapture probabilities (0.01–0.90) and two reported mortality probabilities (0.10, 0.19). We calculated bias by comparing estimates against known probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality. We explored whether sparse data (i.e., recapture probabilities <0.02) compromised inference about survival by comparing estimates from dead recovery (DR) and JE models using an 18-year data set from a migratory bird, the lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens). Our simulations showed that bias in probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality was relatively low across a large range of recapture probabilities, except when recapture and reported mortality probabilities were both lowest. While bias in fidelity probability was similar across all recapture probabilities, the root mean square error declined substantially with increased recapture probabilities for reported mortality probabilities of 0.10 or 0.19, as expected. In our case study, annual survival probabilities for adult female snow geese were similar whether estimated with JE or DR models, but more precise from JE models than those from DR models. Thus, our simulated and empirical data suggest acceptably minimal bias in survival, fidelity or reported mortality probabilities estimated from JE models. Even a small amount of recapture information provided adequate structure for JE models, except when reported mortality probabilities were <0.10. Thus, practitioners with limited recapture data should not be discouraged from use of JE models. We recommend that ecologists incorporate other data types as frequently as analytically possible, since precision of focal parameters is improved, and additional parameters of interest can be estimated.

Liberalized harvest regulations have not affected overabundant Snow Geese in Northern Manitoba

Large amounts of money are spent each year to control overabundant species that imperil biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across the globe. Lesser Snow Geese (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) are emblematic of this issue, as their overabundance has affected a whole suite of plant, insect, and bird communities via a trophic cascade that managers have attempted to stop before it spreads further across the North American (sub)Arctic. To achieve this goal, liberalized harvest measures designed to decrease Lesser Snow Goose survival and abundance were implemented almost 2 decades ago. Our previous quantitative assessment of management effectiveness indicated that the growing Lesser Snow Goose population quickly overwhelmed a satiated hunter population despite liberalized harvest regulations, eventually reducing the fraction of Lesser Snow Geese being harvested each year. Consistent with the philosophy of adaptive resource management, we apply improved methods to additional years of monitoring data to evaluate the ongoing impact of harvest conservation efforts on Lesser Snow Goose harvest rates. Our previous results suggested little effect of liberalized harvest regulations on harvest rates, but our new findings suggest even less of an impact. Harvest rates have recently stabilized at ~3%, the lowest levels observed over the last 48 yr of our study. Barring adverse effects of environmental change on natural mortality or reproductive success, additional measures will need to be taken to reduce Lesser Snow Goose overabundance and their ecosystem damage.

Effects of parasitic infections on clutch size of lesser snow geese from a northern breeding colony

A density-dependent decline in the average clutch size of lesser snow geese (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) occurred from 1973 to 1989 at the breeding colony on the shores of La Pérouse Bay, Manitoba. An increase in average parasite load was hypothesized to be one of the two most likely causes of this decline. We shot 28 incubating adult female lesser snow geese at the La Pérouse Bay colony and examined the carcasses for parasites to determine if there was any proximate association between parasitic infections and the size of the clutch a female laid. We found no convincing evidence that parasitic infections were the proximate cause of any reduction in clutch size. In the absence of evidence of any direct effect of parasites, we conclude that an increase in the average parasite load is probably not the cause of the long-term decline in clutch size at La Pérouse Bay. By default, we suggest that increased intraspecific competition for food at the staging areas on the migratory flyway is the most likely cause of the decline in clutch size.