Valuation Uncertainty and Short-Sales Constraints: Evidence from the IPO Aftermarket

We use the initial public offering (IPO) setting to provide evidence that the combination of valuation uncertainty and short-sales constraints generates significant equity market mispricing. The IPOs that we predict to be most susceptible to overpricing in the immediate aftermarket have first-day returns of +47% and lockup expiration returns of [Formula: see text]9%. Our detailed analysis of securities lending market data confirms that these IPOs experience severe short-sales constraints that peak around the lockup expiration. Our paper both explains the anomalous pricing of IPOs and highlights the importance of valuation uncertainty and short-sales constraints in explaining equity mispricing. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.

Unlock Day Expiration and Mandatory IPOs Lock up Among ACE Firms in Malaysia

This research studied the role of lockup in assessing price and volume of IPOs during the expiration of lockup in Malaysian market. The reaction of price is measured by the abnormal return while the reaction of volume is measured by the abnormal volume. The companies were selected from the years 2010 to 2018 and only companies that were still listed in Bursa Malaysia were chosen. The time frame of the study was 30 days before and 30 days after the expiration date of lock up provision. The results may show for these circumstances of i) the volume will remain and the price will decrease; ii) volume will be decreased and price will be decreased too and iii) promoters retain percentage of shares during expiration date. For situation number i), it might show the sign of a quite good quality of performance of IPOs in stock market. Evidently, the second circumstance shows decrease in price and volume of IPOs after expiration date. The scenario actually leads by demand and supply of stock. Another important evidence which supports the insignificant result is promoters retain percentage of shares during expiration date. The amounts that should be released by the companies are not offered to the market during that time. By looking at the Signaling Theory, insiders of IPOs firms who are previously restricted from selling their holdings have the first chance to sell large propositions of their shares. Investors will know the dates of IPO lockup expiration and numbers of shares by looking at the prospectus. Due to the scenario, the price and volume of IPOs will be reacting during expiration date based on this theory. It is hoped that this study will help investors or any Malaysian market participation especially in the IPOs market to notice the situation in Malaysian market regarding the lock up provision.

Ownership dilution and earnings management: evidence from Indian IPOs

Purpose Prior research on earnings management largely assumes that newly public firms manage earnings opportunistically around IPOs. However, only a few studies have empirically examined the real motives behind newly public firms’ earnings management. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of ownership dilution on earnings management among IPO firms. The authors chose the setting of security offerings in an emerging market, which is characterised by unique ownership structure, to examine the possible incentive of owners or pre-IPO shareholders to engage in earnings management. Design/methodology/approach The study employs accrual and real transactions measures to check the presence of earnings management among 409 IPO firms from India during the period 2000‒2018. Subsequently, using ordinary least squares regression models with heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors, this paper examines the relationship between earnings management and selling or dilution incentives of pre-IPO shareholders. Findings The study finds that the degree of earnings manipulation by issuer firms is positively associated with the ownership dilution at the time of IPO as well as around lockup expiration. Practical implications The findings of this study will help the investors and regulators to understand the practice of earnings management among IPO firms and how it is linked to the ownership dilution of pre-IPO shareholders. Originality/value The paper contributes to the limited stream of research that investigates the motives of earnings management among IPO firms. It empirically establishes an association between the selling incentive of pre-IPO shareholders and earnings management.

IPO overvaluation and returns prior to lockup expiration

Purpose Conventional wisdom says that the price reduction stocks experience at expiration of the initial public offering (IPO) lockup period is due to relaxation of selling constraints. Findings from more recent literature question this explanation. The purpose of this paper is to examine a different cause for this price drop, IPO overvaluation. Design/methodology/approach Using the IPO overvaluation measures of Purnanandam and Swaminathan (2004), the authors examine IPO lockup period stock return differences between stocks in the highest and lowest overvaluation quintiles. Findings The authors show that the IPO lockup period price reduction is strongly related to overvaluation. Zero-investment portfolios long in the lowest overvaluation quintile and short in the highest overvaluation quintile of IPO firms have positive significant returns. Practical implications IPO investors can use the technique to identify firms likely to underperform in the IPO lockup period, potentially avoiding bad investments. Originality/value This is the first study to link IPO lockup period stock returns to IPO overvaluation, providing evidence on the impact of both overvaluation and short-selling constraints on stock returns in the IPO lockup period.

Earnings Management During Lockup in Explaining IPO Operating Underperformance

This study examines the relationship between initial public offering (IPO) managers' earnings management behavior during lockup (measured with discretionary accruals, DAs) and operating performance following lockup expiration (measured with operating return on assets, OPROAs). Based on a U.S. IPO sample, the results indicate that DAs during lockup are significantly higher than after lockup expiration. In addition, the reversal effect of DAs results in a negative association of DAs in lockup with post-lockup OPROAs. This negative relation is primarily concentrated in small-sized, non-venture backed, high-tech, and hot-market issued IPOs and is consistent with prior findings that such IPO firms have poorer post-issue performance. The overall evidence supports the role of managerial earnings management behavior during lockup in explaining post-IPO operating underperformance.