DAMPAK COVID-19 TERHADAP ABNORMAL RETURN DAN VOLUME PERDAGANGAN SAHAM

The COVID-19 pandemic is a non-natural disaster that has a huge impact around the world. This research is a quantitative research with event study method. The purpose of this research is to test the capital market reaction by looking at abnormal returns and trading volume activity before and after the COVID-19 non-natural disaster. The event day in this study was April 13rd, 2020 when the Presidential Decree was issued regarding the designation of COVID-19 as a national disaster. Using purposive sampling method, the sample of this study were 27 companies engaged in the hotel, restaurant, and tourism sub-sectors listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The event period is 11 days, namely 5 days before the event, 1 day at the time of the event and 5 days after the event. Data analysis using t-test and wilxocon signed ranks test. The results of this study are: 1) there is no abnormal return during the event period, 2) there is no difference in the average abnormal return before and after the COVID-19 non-natural disaster event, 3) there is no difference in the average trading volume activity before and after the COVID-19 non-natural disaster event and after the COVID-19 non-natural disaster event. Keywords: Event Study, Abnormal Return, Trading Volume Activity, COVID-19.

Apakah Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar Warga Negara Asing Berdampak Pada Average Abnormal Return?

This study examines the differences in stock prices listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as measured using average abnormal returns on events (event studies) before and after the enactment of Large-Scale Social Restrictions for Foreign Citizens, especially COVID-19 which has an impact not only threatening human health but also has an impact on the economic sector. This condition will certainly have an impact on all sectors including stock trading on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, especially the Tourism, Hospitality, and Restaurant sub-sector. By using a sample of 41 companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with a research period of 3 months (16 November 2020 to 15 February 2021) the type of purposive sampling research that meets the criteria and using paired sample t-test, the results show that there is no difference Average Abnormal Return before and after the occurrence of a PSBB event for Foreign Citizens. So it can be concluded that the PSBB for Foreign Citizens has no impact on the average abnormal return obtained by investors.

Impact of the OMRR Operation in Fighting the Adverse Effects of COVID-19 on the Chinese Stock Market: An Event Study

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has had an adverse effect on China's economy. This paper uses the event study method to test and measure the impact of the open market reverse repo (OMRR) operation on the Chinese stock market. The results show that the OMRR operation generates a positive daily abnormal return and a positive daily cumulative abnormal return on average for all stocks. The impact is larger for non-state-owned enterprise (non-SOE) firms than for SOE firms, stocks of non-Hubei provinces than those of the Hubei province, and for stocks of the information transmission and technology industry than those of other industries. We suggest that our government implement more prudent monetary policies and more proactive fiscal policies.

ANALISIS REAKSI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA TERHADAP PENETAPAN UNDANG UNDANG CIPTA KERJA TAHUN 2020

Undang Undang Cipta Kerja Tahun 2020 yang disahkan pada tanggal 5 Oktober 2020 dinilai memberikan dampak yang positif bagi pasar modal Indonesia. Kandungan informasi dalam penetapan Undang-Undang Cipta Kerja dimanfaatkan oleh investor dalam membuat keputusan investasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis reaksi pasar modal Indonesia yang dilakukan dengan cara mengamati pergerakan harga saham dan volume perdagangan saham. Pergerakan harga saham digunakan untuk melihat ada tidaknya abnormal return, sedangkan volume perdagangan digunakan untuk melihat ada tidaknya peningkatan trading volume activity. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode studi peristiwa dengan periode pengamatan selama 21 hari yang terdiri dari 10 hari sebelum dan 10 hari setelah pengumuman penetapan Undang Undang Cipta Kerja tahun 2020. Sampel penelitian adalah 14 perusahaan manufaktur yang sahamnya terdaftar dalam Indeks LQ 45 dengan kriteria tertentu. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa tidak terjadi perbedaan pada rata-rata abnormal return antara sebelum dan sesudah pengumuman penetapan Undang Undang Cipta Kerja tahun 2020. Akan tetapi terdapat perbedaan pada rata-rata trading volume activity saat sebelum dan sesudah pengumuman penetapan Undang Undang Cipta Kerja tahun 2020.

Reaksi Pasar terhadap Penerapan Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19

On April 6, 2020, the government approved the implementation of the first Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) in Indonesia in the context of accelerating the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. This study uses this event as an event under study to observe the market reaction before and after it, with a window period of 11 days. The average abnormal return and the average trading volume activity of stocks are used as indicators of market reaction. The study was conducted on 152 trading, service and investment sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), which were determined using a non-probability sampling method with a purposive sampling technique. Data were analyzed by using paired sample t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. The results showed that there was no difference between the average abnormal return and the average trading volume activity before and after the first PSBB was approved in Indonesia. The absence of market reaction is assumed because the level of market efficiency in Indonesia is still weak. Keywords : Covid-19; Social Distancing Policy; Market Reaction; Abnormal Return; Trading Volume Activity.

REAKSI PASAR MODAL INDONESIA TERHADAP PEMILIHAN PRESIDEN AMERIKA SERIKAT TAHUN 2020

ABSTRAKTujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui reaksi pasar modal Indonesia ketika terjadi peristiwa politik di Internasional. Perusahaan LQ45 periode Agustus 2020–Januari 2021 dipilih sebagai populasi dan sampel dengan menggunakan metode sample jenuh. Teknik single index model digunakan untuk mencari abnormal return. Periode jendela peristiwa lima belas hari, dan tiga puluh hari periode estimasi dengan teknik analisis data gabungan antara One Sample t-test, One Sample Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test, dan Paired Sample t-test. Hasil analisis menunjukan tidak terdapat imbal hasil tak normal yang signifikan di sekitar periode peristiwa, tetapi kondisi abnormal return sebelum dan sesudah peristiwa pilpres AS 2020 mengalami perbedaan yang signifikan. Terdapat trading volume activity yang signifikan selama lima belas hari di sekitar periode peristiwa tersebut. Terjadi reaksi di LQ45 pada abnormal return tetapi tidak signifikan dengan trading volume activity yang signifikan. Dengan mempertimbangkan kedua hal tersebut pada saat terjadinya suatu peristiwa politik, investor dapat mengambil sikap dengan menggunakan analisis mendalam tentang kecenderungan return yang terdapat di sebuah pasar modal. ABSTRACTThe purpose of this research is to determine the reaction of the Indonesian capital market when international political events occur. LQ45 companies for the period August 2020–January 2021 were selected as the population and sample, using the saturated sample method. With the single index model technique to find the abnormal return. The event window period is fifteen days, and the estimation period is thirty days with a combined data analysis technique between One Sample t-test, one sample Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test and Paired Sample t-test. The results of the analysis showed that there were no significant abnormal returns around the event period, but the abnormal return conditions before and after the 2020 US presidential election experienced significant differences. There was significant trading volume activity for fifteen days around the event period. There was a reaction in LQ45 on abnormal returns but not significant with significant trading volume activity. By considering these two things when a political event occurs, investors can take a stand by using an in-depth analysis of the trend of returns in a capital market.

Announcements Effect of Corporate Bond Issuance on Stock Returns: Evidence from Chile

This study measures the announcement effect of corporate bond issuance on stock returns for companies listed on the Santiago de Chile Stock Exchange (BCS). The sample is made up of 29 firms and 87 corporate bond issuance announcements during the 2010-2017 period. The announcement effect of corporate bond issuance on stock return is measured by an event study. This methodology allows to calculate abnormal returns for the days of the event period. The results show that the average abnormal return on the day of the announcement is negative (between -0.09% and -0.03%), but it is not statistically significant. However, the average abnormal return on the day after the announcement is positive (between 0.27% and 0.32%) and has statistical significance. The significant and positive average abnormal return on the day after the announcement suggests a late market reaction. The study shows that there is a significant signaling effect of bond issuance announcements on stock returns.

Will the Volume-Based Procurement Policy Promote Pharmaceutical Firms’ R&D Investment in China? An Event Study Approach

Innovation is the key to the development of the pharmaceutical industry. The pilot program of China’s “4 + 7” volume-based procurement policy (“4 + 7” procurement policy) brings the drug price back to a reasonable level through trading procurement quantities for lower drug prices. The policy manages to reduce the burden of the health care system, improve efficiency, and push the pharmaceutical industry to transform and update from the era of high gross profit of generic drugs to innovative drugs. So far, few studies have investigated the influence of the volume-based procurement policy on the innovation of pharmaceutical firms. By combining the event study and Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methodology, this study finds that the abnormal return (AR) of firms with high R&D intensity is lower than that of firms with low R&D intensity during the event window period. Moreover, further analysis identifies the moderating effect of firm size and firm type. Specifically, the results show that the negative influence of high R&D intensity on abnormal return (AR) during the announcement of the “4 + 7” procurement policy is stronger in large firms and innovative pharmaceutical firms. Finally, we discuss the policy implications of our study.