ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY WITH THE ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of economic growth and inflation on unemployment for the period 2005:1- 2020:9 in Turkey by using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) model. In the study, firstly unit root tests were carried out to determine whether economic growth (ind) and inflation (cpi) have long and short-term effects on unemployment (unemp). Then, the ARDL method was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the series in the model where the unemployment rate is the dependent variable, the Industrial Production Index representing economic growth and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing inflation. Instead of GDP, the Industrial Production Index was preferred both to harmonize with the monthly data and to make a production-based analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the variables, and the short-term relationship was analyzed with the error correction model (ECM). As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between unemployment, inflation rate and economic growth in Turkey. According to the results of the analysis, negative between unemployment and industrial production index; It is seen that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and inflation.

FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI NON PERFORMING FINANCING BANK PEMBIAYAAN RAKYAT SYARIAH PERIODE 2015-2019

ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh faktor internal yaitu Financing to Deposit Ratio dan Return on Asset serta faktor eksternal yaitu BI Rate dan Indeks Produksi Industri terhadap Non Performing Financing Bank Pembiayaan Rakyat Syariah di Indonesia periode 2015 hingga 2019 baik secara parsial dan simultan. Sampel yang digunakan adalah sampel jenuh, yaitu Industri Bank Pembiayaan Rakyat Syariah di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series yang diperoleh dari web resmi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan dan Badan Pusat Statistik. Metode yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif dengan teknik analisis berdasarkan regresi linier berganda Ordinary Least Square. Berdasarkan hasil uji t (parsial) bahwa Financing to Deposit Ratio dan Return on Asset tidak berpengaruh signifikan, sedangkan BI Rate dan Indeks Produksi Industri berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap Non Performing Financing. Hasil uji F (simultan) variabel Financing to Deposit Ratio, Return on Asset, BI Rate, dan Indeks Produksi Industri berpengaruh signifikan terhadap Non Performing Financing. Oleh karena itu, Bank Pembiayaan Rakyat Syariah harus lebih memperhatikan kondisi makroekonomi terutama BI Rate dan Indeks Produksi Industri karena dapat mempengaruhi kebijakan dalam manajemen pembiayaan sehingga terjadinya Non Performing Financing dapat dikendalikan.Kata Kunci: Faktor Internal, Faktor Eksternal, Non Performing Financing, Bank Pembiayaan Rakyat Syariah. ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the influence of internal factors, namely Financing to Deposit Ratio and Return on Assets as well as external factors, namely the BI Rate and Industrial Production Index on Non-Performing Financing of Sharia Rural Banks in Indonesia for the period 2015 to 2019 both partially and simultaneously. The sample used is a saturated sample, namely the Sharia Rural Bank Industry in Indonesia. The data used is time series data obtained from the official website of the Financial Services Authority and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The method used is a quantitative approach with an analysis technique based on Ordinary Least Square multiple linear regression. Based on the results of the t test (partial) that Financing to Deposit Ratio and Return on Assets have no significant effect, while the BI Rate and Industrial Production Index have a significant negative effect on Non Performing Financing. The results of the F test (simultaneous) of the variable Financing to Deposit Ratio, Return on Assets, BI Rate, and Industrial Production Index have a significant effect on Non-Performing Financing. Therefore, Sharia Rural Banks must pay more attention to macroeconomic conditions, especially the BI Rate and Industrial Production Index because they can influence policies in financing management so that the occurrence of Non-Performing Financing can be controlled.Keywords: Internal Factors, External Factors, Non Performing Financing, Sharia Rural Bank.