Impact of COVID-19 Vaccines on Tourism Demand and Culture

The low supply of vaccines for COVID-19 has disrupted tourism development in Asia. The question is if the vaccine may change cultural divergence into cultural convergence at the tourist destination. The purpose of this study is to examine the culture and price elasticity of hotel demand to find the cultural convergence. The study has conducted autoregressive distributed lag model to test whether the vaccine would change the price and income elasticities of hotel demand to find the cultural transformation from divergence to convergence through tourism. Findings indicate that the impact of the vaccine on transferring culture from divergence to convergence was confirmed. Tourists from the divergent cultures specified by less levels of Hofstede's cultural dimensions will visit the country destination with high levels of Hofstede's cultural dimensions after COVID vaccination. Japan and the US that possess divergent levels of power will visit Vietnam for power convergence. China, Korea, and Russia that possess divergent levels of indulgence will visit Vietnam for indulgence convergence.

Business Cycles and Alcohol Consumption: Evidence from a Nonlinear Panel ARDL Approach

This study revisits the relationship between economic variables and alcohol consumption from a macro perspective. Focusing explicitly on the asymmetries of the responsiveness of alcohol consumption during the expansion and contraction phases of the business cycle, asymmetric panel estimators are employed. We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model for a panel of 24 countries for the period 1961 to 2014. Findings show that expansion leads to a long-term increase in average alcohol consumption, while during contraction, the level of average alcohol consumption persists. Expansion, together with a pronounced reduction in the unemployment rate could, however, lead to a net reduction of gross alcohol and wine consumption. Nonetheless, if the recession corresponds with a surge in unemployment, this leads to a long-run increase in the level of total gross alcohol consumption but a decrease in wine and beer consumption. Reduction in unemployment does not lead to a reduction in beer consumption, as pre-expansion levels of beer consumption persist. (JEL Classifications: E32, I19, L66)

An Empirical Investigation of Global Production Networks in Indian Manufacturing Sector

This article attempts to dive into the operation of global production networks in India with manufacturing sector in the primary scope of focus. It aims to analyse the long-run and short-run relationship among the factors which form a global supply chain and their effects on a supply chain, using yearly data from 1984 to 2017. Our primary results from the estimations show that all the factors incorporated into the study are important for initiation and effective execution of a supply chain. The autoregressive distributed lag model shows that Index of Industrial Production (IIP), export–import ratio, KOF index and electricity index affect a supply chain positively whereas USD–INR exchange rate and unemployment rate affect gross value added negatively. The error correction model shows long-run relationship between IIP and export–import ratio. The study also highlights the importance of trade balance and industrial production in the long run.

Population Ageing and Price Level in Japan

This paper estimates the cointegration between population ageing and inflation in Japan using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model. The method provides a complete indication of cointegration and avoids false conclusions from a unit root test. Moreover, the transmission channel from ageing to the price level is investigated using the pairwise Granger causality. Based on the annual data from 1961 to 2018, a cointegration relationship is found, and the deflationary effect of ageing in Japan is confirmed. Additionally, the young dependency ratio inflates the price level in Japan. Lastly, ageing influences the price level via its impact on the labour supply.

PENDUGAAN PARAMETER MODEl DISTRIBUTED LAG POLA POLINOMIAL MENGGUNAKAN METODE ALMON

The distributed lag model is a regression model that describes the relationship between the dependent variable of a given period and the independent variables of a certain or previous periods. The model can be used to determine the impact of the independent variable to dependent variables over time and forecast time series data for the next periods. There are two forms of distributed lag model that have been widely proposed in the estimation of distributed lag regression model. The first form is proposed by Koyck and the second form by Almon. This paper aims to apply the Almon model to examine the effect of the ratio of BOPO (Operating Cost and Operating Income) to the ROA (Return on Asset) of a government bank based on quarterly data, to estimate its parameters, to examine the feasibility of the model, and to predict the next quarter. Results shows that distributed lag model is = 10.110 - 0.078 + 0.015 + 0.026 – 0.045 with Yt is ROA, and Xt is the ratio BOPO on the 1st quarter until the previous 3 quarters. The model is quite good according to the determination coefficient that is 0.75, no autocorrelation in the model, t test and F test are also significant. Based on the model, the value of ROA ratio next quarter predicted 4.63%. The decrease in profitability ROA ratio is due to an increase in interest expense while interest income can not compensate

Regional Stock Exchange Development and Economic Growth in the Countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)

This study used panel data covering 27 years to investigate the causality between regional stock exchange development and economic growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries. We performed a homogeneous Granger non-causality with an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Markov-switching analysis, using six indicators for the stock and financial market and six for control. The results showed a close economic relationship between WAEMU countries and causality from the regional stock exchange, which supports the supply leading hypothesis. The causality was confirmed in the short and long run, depending on the variable. The causal relationships that support the demand-driven hypothesis were recorded from the economic growth for four market measurements.

Symmetric and Asymmetric Impacts of Commercial Energy Distribution from Key Sources on Economic Progress in Pakistan

This paper aims to determine the interaction of commercial energy distribution, including the installed capacity of hydroelectric energy, hydroelectric energy generation, the installed capacity of thermal energy, thermal energy generation, the installed capacity of nuclear energy, and nuclear energy generation, with economic progress in Pakistan over the 1970–2019 period. Both linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag models were used to ascertain the symmetric and asymmetric short- and long-run effects. The findings from the linear autoregressive distributed lag model analysis revealed evidence that increases in the installed capacity of nuclear energy, alongside higher levels of hydroelectric energy generation and thermal energy generation, have positively affected economic growth in the short run, while a greater installed capacity of nuclear energy has positively affected economic growth in the long run. The findings from the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model analysis showed that negative shocks to installed capacities related to hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear energy reduced economic growth, while positive shocks to hydroelectric energy generation and the installed capacity of nuclear energy boosted economic growth in the short run. Furthermore, in the long run, negative shocks to the installed capacities of hydroelectric and thermal energy reduced economic growth, negative shocks to the installed capacity of nuclear energy enhanced economic growth, and positive shocks to hydroelectric energy generation and the installed capacity of nuclear energy have stimulated economic growth in Pakistan.

Asymmetric Impact of Institutional Quality on Environmental Degradation: Evidence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve

This paper aims to discover the asymmetry impacts and co-integration between gross domestic product, financial development, energy use and environmental degradation by featuring institutional quality covering the Malaysia economy during the period from 1984 until 2017 using a nonlinear auto-regressive distributed lag model. The results confirm the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for both linear and nonlinear analyses, thus verifying the relevance of symmetric and asymmetric EKC hypotheses for Malaysia. Further, this study verifies the attributes of financial development and institutional quality that mitigates the concern on CO2 emissions, but contradicting results were produced on energy use. The implication of this finding provides new guidelines for Malaysia authorities to consider the asymmetries in formulating environment-related policies to maintain environmental quality and achieve their sustainable development goals.