Forecasting Real GDP Growth for Africa

We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank and start in 1960. The models include lagged growth rates of other countries, as well as a cointegration relationship to capture potential common stochastic trends. With a few selection steps, our methodology quickly arrives at a reasonably small forecasting model per country. Compared with benchmark models, the single equation forecasting models seem to perform quite well.

Relationship between Macroeconomic Policy and Long-Run Economic Growth of Nepal

Background: The paper is an attempt to find the long-run relationship between macroeconomic variables and economic growth in Nepal. The variables in the study are run across the Cobb-Douglas production model. Objective: This paper examines the relationship between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Population, Trade openness, Money Supply and GDP growth economic growth in Nepal. Method: The ARDL bound test and Error Correction model incorporated in the study to examine the long-run relationship among macroeconomic variables. Conclusion: Based on the Bound Test of F-statistics the Cointegration Result exists among the variable and ARDL (1,1,1,1,1) relation is estimated. Implications: Since the study has found the existence of a cointegration relationship on the variables of the study and the long-term relationship among economic growth is significant with GFCF. The policy should be targeted at investment growth in Nepal.

Population Ageing and Price Level in Japan

This paper estimates the cointegration between population ageing and inflation in Japan using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model. The method provides a complete indication of cointegration and avoids false conclusions from a unit root test. Moreover, the transmission channel from ageing to the price level is investigated using the pairwise Granger causality. Based on the annual data from 1961 to 2018, a cointegration relationship is found, and the deflationary effect of ageing in Japan is confirmed. Additionally, the young dependency ratio inflates the price level in Japan. Lastly, ageing influences the price level via its impact on the labour supply.

Long-Run Determinants of Nigerian Inflation Rate: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Inflation is a problem in all facets of life and all economic entities. The government of any nation is concerned with ensuring that her plans are not frustrated by unpredictable and galloping prices. This paper studies the dynamic causal relationship between inflation rate (measured by consumer price index (CPI)), exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), money growth, and oil export in Nigerian during 2005: Q1 to 2019: Q4. The ARDL bounds testing approach and error correction model were used to verify whether there was a long-term relationship between the inflation rate and four determinants (exchange rate, GDP, money growth, and oil export). The results of our study showed that the current inflation CPI, the exchange rate, GDP, and money growth would still affect the next quarter's inflation rate in Nigeria. However, the oil export has no significant effect on the inflation rate. Moreover, we find the long-run cointegration relationship between inflation CPI, the exchange rate, and money. The cointegration relationship will be achieved in a short time (during the next two quarters of the year).

Vector error correction model to analyze energy uses, environmental quality and economic growth during Covid-19 Pandemic

Time series data commonly show are interconnected behaviour and non-stationer interrelated variables, so a model that able to obtain a good forecasting result from a non-stationary multivariate variables time series data are needed. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is one of multivariate time series model which is a vector form of Vector Autoregressive Boundary (VAR) for non-stationary time series data and has a cointegration relationship. The purpose of this study is to identify the VECM model in analyzing the relationship between energy use, environmental quality (CO2), and economic growth (GDP) during the Covid-19 pandemic that plagued Indonesia. The results of this study explained energy uses and and environmental quality (CO2) and economic growth (GDP) are interrelated and have a long-term cointegration relationship due to the influence of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Cointegration Test and Projection of Total Rubber and Tin Production and Their Effect on The Environment in Province of Bangka Belitung Island

The cointegration test in this study aims to see the long-term balance relationship between the amount of rubber and tin production produced in the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands. This time series test uses historical data from 2002-2015. In addition to seeing the cointegration relationship, it will also be seen how the projection results are produced until 2025. This cointegration test results that the amount of rubber and tin production produced in the Province of Bangka Belitung Islands does not have a significant relationship between the two variables as evidenced by a probability value of 0.1366. The probability value that is greater than 5% of the alpha level means that these two variables are independent of each other and the projection results show that tin and rubber production has an upward trend from 2016-2025. The projected value of tin production is not as high as the projection value of rubber plantations with a percentage difference of 11.67%. It is also time for the community to develop the plantation sector and move away from the mining sector which has been undertaken in line with the increasing environmental damage that has been generated.

HOW DID COVID-19 PANDEMIC AFFECT THE TOURISM INDEX IN BORSA ISTANBUL?

This study aims to investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Turkey's tourism sector. In the study, for the period 12 March 2020 - 31 August 2020 the daily data of the BIST tourism stock index and Covid-19 case and death counts in Turkey were used. The cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 pandemic and the BIST tourism index was investigated with the ARDL bound test. In addition, the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the BIST tourism index was tested with the FMOLS regression method. As a result of the ARDL bound test, it was determined that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the Covid-19 case and death numbers and the BIST tourism index. According to the FMOLS regression model results, it is seen that the deaths of Covid 19 significantly affect the tourism index. A 1% increase in the number of deaths causes the BIST tourism index to decrease by 0.08%. The coefficient of the number of Covid-19 cases is not significant, showing that the number of cases does not have a sufficient effect on the tourism index.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN TURKEY WITH THE ARDL BOUNDS TESTING APPROACH

The aim of this study is to examine the effects of economic growth and inflation on unemployment for the period 2005:1- 2020:9 in Turkey by using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) model. In the study, firstly unit root tests were carried out to determine whether economic growth (ind) and inflation (cpi) have long and short-term effects on unemployment (unemp). Then, the ARDL method was used to determine whether there is a long-term relationship between the series in the model where the unemployment rate is the dependent variable, the Industrial Production Index representing economic growth and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) representing inflation. Instead of GDP, the Industrial Production Index was preferred both to harmonize with the monthly data and to make a production-based analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was a statistically significant cointegration relationship between the variables, and the short-term relationship was analyzed with the error correction model (ECM). As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that there is a cointegration relationship between unemployment, inflation rate and economic growth in Turkey. According to the results of the analysis, negative between unemployment and industrial production index; It is seen that there is a positive relationship between unemployment and inflation.

INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND COMPETITIVENESS OF THE TUNISIAN MANUFACTURING SECTOR

This paper aims to assess the impact of industrial policy instruments on international competitiveness and in particular on the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector in Tunisia. From a non-stationary panel model composed of 13 Tunisian manufacturing sectors during the period 1995-2016, we show the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between manufacturing exports and its determinants. The results show that spending on research and development and tertiary education has a positive effect on exports. Hence, it is necessary for the public authorities to intervene within the framework of industrial policy to promote technological innovation and higher education.