Impact of external currency exposures on macroeconomic policies

Based on cross-country panel regressions, the paper analyzes the impact of external currency exposures on monetary policy, exchange rate regime and capital controls. It is determined that positive net external position (which, e.g., is the case for Russia) is associated with a higher degree of monetary policy autonomy, i.e. the national key interest rate is less responsive to Fed/ECB policy and exchange rate fluctuations. Therefore, the risks of cross-country synchronization of financial cycles are reduced, while central banks are able to place a larger emphasis on their price stability mandates. Significant positive impact of net external currency exposure on exchange rate flexibility and financial account liberalization is only found in the context of static models. This is probably due to the two-way links between incentives for external assets/liabilities accumulation and these macroeconomic policy tools.

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE DERIVATIVES ON STOCKS IN EMERGING MARKETS

This paper investigates the effect of derivatives on the relationship between the foreign exchange rate and the stock market. A theoretical model is used to extend the understanding of that relationship. Also, the model is tested with an empirical analysis using the GMM strategy for the Mexican and Brazilian stock markets for the period 2007 to 2019. Findings reveal that in addition to the spot exchange rate, exchange rate futures explain the currency exposure, wherein the derivative effect is the most prominent. The result implies that both risk sources should be considered in the implementation of risk management or macroeconomic policy. The theoretical results are extended by applying them to international portfolio management, proposing a strategy to mitigate foreign exchange exposure with derivatives. This study contributes to the literature by explaining why the minimum variance hedge ratio plays an essential role in the foreign exchange rate and stock market nexus.

Currency Exposure and Time Scales: Application of Wavelet Method to Malaysian Non-financial Firms

The paper estimates the multiscale relationship between stock prices and exchange rates of 75 Malaysian non-financial firms by applying the wavelet analysis on daily data running from 1995 to 2016. The analysis is done for the overall sample and also by segregating the selected firms into 15 industries in Malaysia. Results from the ordinary least square (OLS) regression are also obtained for comparison purpose. The beta coefficients of exposure are shown to exhibit multiscale tendency in all analyses. Higher exposure is recorded at higher timescale for the overall and negative exposure, confirming the initial prediction of higher exposure in wider investment horizon. The study also shows higher wavelet exposure at high scale compared to the exposure obtained from the OLS estimate, providing support on the higher measurement power of the wavelet analysis to study the exposure level.

Firm-Specific Currency Exposure, Repatriation, and the Market Value of Repatriation Taxes

ABSTRACT As the U.S. dollar (USD) strengthens relative to foreign currencies, the USD value of foreign subsidiary-to-parent dividends decreases, and the foreign tax credit remains anchored at a blended rate. During periods of USD strength, this asymmetry lowers the effective tax cost of repatriation at the cost of a lower after-tax dividend to the U.S. parent. This paper develops a firm-specific measure of currency exposure and provides evidence that repatriation likelihood increases during periods of firm-specific USD strength. We show that investors place a premium on repatriation costs when the USD strengthens against a firm-specific basket of currencies for repatriating firms. This premium implies that investors value the benefit of a lower effective tax cost of repatriation more than the potential cost of a lower after-tax dividend available to the U.S. parent. These results appear concentrated in firms with high levels of foreign cash and firms susceptible to earnings fixation.

An Analysis of Foreign Exchange Risk Management: Techniques Employed in Indian Pharma Industry

Foreign exchange risk management (FERM) involves using both internal and external techniques such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps that are called as currency derivatives. The firms with greater growth opportunities and tighter financial constraints are more inclined to use currency derivatives. The Forex market provides various derivative instruments to hedge against currency exposures such as currency forwards, options, futures, and swaps. The current article aims at studying various FERM techniques used in the Indian pharmaceutical industry and its impact on exchange gain/losses. For this purpose, foreign exchange cash flows arising out of imports and exports and exchange gain/losses of the companies during 2010–2017 of 10 sample companies chosen from the pharma industry are used. It is observed from the study that only two currencies—USD and EUR—hold command in the forex market and other currencies are being used minimally. It is also noted that there are several currency derivatives available to the business firms such as forwards, futures, options, and swaps for hedging currency exposure. However, among all these techniques, forward contract is considered to be an effective hedging tool and easier to understand.